Winter 2015-16 Medium-Long Range Discussion

[Chambana]

Wunderground forecast entertaining 6-9" for Champaign, during the 21-23rd timeframe. The exact dates ole Alek was eyeing. Hopefully we can get a decent low through our area, with cold air in place. Not this garbage we've seen all winter long.

[dan123]

I've read that the nino has actually strengthened again or at least hasn't declined to where it was expected. If true, wouldn't this make a torchy Feb more likely since the cold Feb forecasts were predicated on a rapidly declining nino in Dec?[/quote

Not really. Typical Nino climo usually seed feb as the coldest month.

[gosaints]

I've read that the nino has actually strengthened again or at least hasn't declined to where it was expected. If true, wouldn't this make a torchy Feb more likely since the cold Feb forecasts were predicated on a rapidly declining nino in Dec?[/quote

Not really. Typical Nino climo usually seed feb as the coldest month.

 

Typical nino would be crashing by now....

[michsnowfreak]

I've read that the nino has actually strengthened again or at least hasn't declined to where it was expected. If true, wouldn't this make a torchy Feb more likely since the cold Feb forecasts were predicated on a rapidly declining nino in Dec?

Generally in strong ninos Feb is the coldest month, I think that's where predictions came from.

I don't expect sustained cold in a strong nino, but hope the cold shots continue through March.

[A-L-E-K]

 

 

i don't buy the suppression the GFS was selling during this time frame and gulf should be open for business

[Stebo]

i don't buy the suppression the GFS was selling during this time frame and gulf should be open for business

For the both of us we better hope it is something in between, because that is tain all day right there.

[buckeye]

 

 

 

 

i don't buy the suppression the GFS was selling during this time frame and gulf should be open for business

 

the euro showing this strong wound up solution this far out is probably a good thing for those who want a flatter solution.   No chance this holds for 8 days  .   

[A-L-E-K]

For the both of us we better hope it is something in between, because that is tain all day right there.

 

 

obviously and i'm not to hung up on details, just like cutter prospects during the period that's all

[Stebo]

obviously and i'm not to hung up on details, just like cutter prospects during the period that's all

Oh I do agree, that period is the one to watch as the pattern looks to flip then.

[Hoosier]

So who wants to start the storm thread? 

[buckeye]

Oh I do agree, that period is the one to watch as the pattern looks to flip then.

 

It is going to be at that transition time but the weird thing is, we are in the midst of a very neg AO, NAO, and yet we are staring down a rain event this weekend all the way up, well into our sub.   At what point do these indices mean anything, up or down?   I guess we can blame it on the super nino. 

[A-L-E-K]

So who wants to start the storm thread? 

 

[buckeye]

So who wants to start the storm thread? 

 

you should let an ohio guy do it.  Would be good luck for the Chicago to Detroit  axis

[snowstormcanuck]

zzzzzz til D9

[dan123]

zzzzzz til D9

Hopefully it'll be worth it.

[snowstormcanuck]

Hopefully it'll be worth it.

 

Probably not. Rain, dryslot, suppression. Something will **** it up.

[A-L-E-K]

chances for a letdown are always high when you're next best shot is a d9/10 fantasy storm but that's what it has come to

[Jonger]

 

Looks like a poor mans version of the December pattern on the ECMWF. GGEM is more zonal. I wish the blocking wouldn't quite weaken so much.

 

Dude. Don't scare me like this.

 

It's not Feb 2015, but it's within the range of normal to below normal.

[dan123]

Probably not. Rain, dryslot, suppression. Something will **** it up.

With the way this winter has gone that wouldn't surprise me but at least the prospects of a decent HP in front of the system may at least allow for some wintry precip.

[gosaints]

With the way this winter has gone that wouldn't surprise me but at least the prospects of a decent HP in front of the system may at least allow for some wintry precip.

The winter without a front end thump

[Hoosier]

Generally in strong ninos Feb is the coldest month, I think that's where predictions came from.

I don't expect sustained cold in a strong nino, but hope the cold shots continue through March.

 

Generally being the key word there.  Not a lock that February winds up colder than January.

[LakeEffectOH]

I've read that the nino has actually strengthened again or at least hasn't declined to where it was expected.   If true, wouldn't this make a torchy Feb more likely since the cold Feb forecasts were predicated on a rapidly declining nino in Dec?

Nino 1+2 has warmed some over the past week.  Blame that on a record westerly wind burst (WWB) that ended a couple of days ago. According to Paul Roundy, the momentum caused by the recent WWB could cause more warming over the next few weeks. 

[Jonger]

Nino 1+2 has warmed some over the past week.  Blame that on a record westerly wind burst (WWB) that ended a couple of days ago. According to Paul Roundy, the momentum caused by the recent WWB could cause more warming over the next few weeks. 

 

I doubt it matters. I guess you never know though.

[LakeEffectOH]

I doubt it matters. I guess you never know though.

IMHO, the warming in Nino 1+2 & 3 will probably not be enough to really torch the US like 1998.  That said, the warming would delay a more rapid cooling of Nino 1+2 & 3.  A more rapid cooling would shift tropical forcing a little westward and probably weaken the sub tropical jet to a point where conditions for a colder, snowier pattern are a lot more favorable.  

 

If cooling is delayed for the next 2-4 weeks, then we probably will be stuck with what we have.  However, since Nino 1+2 underwent significant cooling earlier this month, the rapid cooling may resume now that the WWB is over.  I noticed the SSTs in Nino 1+2 have cooled today...the first cooling in over a week.

[michsnowfreak]

Generally being the key word there.  Not a lock that February winds up colder than January.

Agree. Nothing is ever a lock. I merely meant that I think thats why so many went cold in Feb.

[michsnowfreak]

Dude. Don't scare me like this.

 

It's not Feb 2015, but it's within the range of normal to below normal.

There is absolutely nothing similar to Dec 2015 temp-departure-wise showing up, no worries.

[OHweather]

I've read that the nino has actually strengthened again or at least hasn't declined to where it was expected.   If true, wouldn't this make a torchy Feb more likely since the cold Feb forecasts were predicated on a rapidly declining nino in Dec?

As LakeEffectOH posted yes, the eastern Nino regions have warmed a little bit recently. However, I don't think it's a huge deal for a couple of reasons. There's a significant lag between SSTs down there and atmospheric response, so this winter was locked and loaded to be dominated by El Nino when region 3.4 was setting records into November and staying very warm into December. If the Nino would've started weakening in December maybe it would've made some difference for Feb/March, but it didn't and I don't think this recent warming makes a huge difference. The Gulf of Alaska low often retrogrades towards the Aleutians in February during El Ninos which would be an OK spot...and some stratospheric buffs who know a lot more about Sudden Stratospheric Warmings than I do have been more excited about this actually occurring late this month with better prospects for a sustained -AO in February. Because of this combination of factors I still think February doesn't torch...I could be wrong though and even if it's cold, it doesn't guarantee a lot of snow. The ensembles have consistently hinted at the El Nino driven Pac jet overwhelming things later in the month so I do think it's quite possible we warm up later in the month and cool back off into February.

[Powerball]

I thought Feburary was going to be huge?

 

The better question is a huge *what*.

[michsnowfreak]

As LakeEffectOH posted yes, the eastern Nino regions have warmed a little bit recently. However, I don't think it's a huge deal for a couple of reasons. There's a significant lag between SSTs down there and atmospheric response, so this winter was locked and loaded to be dominated by El Nino when region 3.4 was setting records into November and staying very warm into December. If the Nino would've started weakening in December maybe it would've made some difference for Feb/March, but it didn't and I don't think this recent warming makes a huge difference. The Gulf of Alaska low often retrogrades towards the Aleutians in February during El Ninos which would be an OK spot...and some stratospheric buffs who know a lot more about Sudden Stratospheric Warmings than I do have been more excited about this actually occurring late this month with better prospects for a sustained -AO in February. Because of this combination of factors I still think February doesn't torch...I could be wrong though and even if it's cold, it doesn't guarantee a lot of snow. The ensembles have consistently hinted at the El Nino driven Pac jet overwhelming things later in the month so I do think it's quite possible we warm up later in the month and cool back off into February.

I noticed cfs weeklies had temps near to below normal weeks 1 thru 3, then above normal week 4. Hoping the last week of January offers some snow chances as I'll be on vacation.

[dmc76]

The better question is a huge *what*.

As in a stormy pattern? That was the rumor around these forums early on