Hoosier Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Watch this one in the coming days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Watch this one in the coming days gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png Yep, have to remember this system this weekend was originally an east coast storm at this range too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Watch this one in the coming days gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png Been mentioning that in the Lets talk winter thread. 12z Euro looked close to a triple phaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Yep, have to remember this system this weekend was originally an east coast storm at this range too. East coast has gotta cash in at some point, right? Hopefully not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 Watch this one in the coming days gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png 12z Euro ensembles looked interesting in that range at 500mb...the strong blocking should prevent it from tracking too far NW but could see it track into the Ohio Valley if it phases early enough.Notice how this all happens on the models after I made a negative post the other day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I may have to book a trip to NYC during the 16th - 18th period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmosnow Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 12z Euro ensembles looked interesting in that range at 500mb...the strong blocking should prevent it from tracking too far NW but could see it track into the Ohio Valley if it phases early enough. Notice how this all happens on the models after I made a negative post the other day According to Cohen, at AER in his latest blog, the stretched polar vortex pushed well off the pole towards Asia has been responsible for delivering Siberian cold to North America the past three winters.I think it is his faith in this that has made for his cold Jan Feb March forecast for the eastern two thirds of the US. SSW may be better but the stretched vortex of late seems to be doing the job.Wave flux of heat into the strat. at higher latitudes around Dec.20 may have been the key to this turn around from Dec. Nice that medium range forecasting is so full of surprises! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmosnow Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 right, but the stretched vortex is likely done and tough to maintain with the nino this size. it triggers some type, form of greenland block, but that is so far out to take seriously. It won't last either once the forcing ends. You need a ssw to bring the real deal blocking. Cohen also says we need the the SSW for an extended -AO but seems confident that his model predicting another strong wave flux period is going to give SSW before the month is out.Given the failure of that to take place the past two years you have to be skeptical but we did not have the predicted -NAO those years nor the kind of GOA low in the Pacific we now have.Both are supposedly ideal conditions for pumping heat into the polar strat polar vortex. So is a kind of wait and see thing but has been my experience that change to strong -AO at the beginning of Dec or Jan. tends to repeat itself later and be neutral in its off periods. This kind of El Nino,however, makes for uncharted waters so best not to be too sure about anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 lol @ the arctic, wtf is going on up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Next item of interest...tuesday clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 lol @ the arctic, wtf is going on up there Santa invited Wu-Tang Klan to the after holidays party. We have seen the 1 to 2 punch of stronger SLPs before this fall into winter in the sub...I like the prospects of that next larger phaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 lol @ the arctic, wtf is going on up there December 2015 blowtorch moved north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 lol @ the arctic, wtf is going on up there Just not going to get a cold continent without warm arctic. The last 3 weenie winters have taken their toll on the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 12z euro is a snooze fest. The clipper next week is weak. Then everything that tries to come out of the sw after day 7 gets crushed to oblivion. Here is the 10 day snow totals. Beyond that the HP settles in like a fat chick in a waterbed with a leak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 12z euro is a snooze fest. The clipper next week is weak. Then everything that tries to come out of the sw after day 7 gets crushed to oblivion. Here is the 10 day snow totals. Beyond that the HP settles in like a fat chick in a waterbed with a leak. Looks eventful in Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Looks eventful in Michigan. wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Looks eventful in Michigan.Yeah liking our odds with a few clippers that pass through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 That Scandanavian/Kara Sea block last week was something else too. It got above freezing at the North Pole. Not your daddy's climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Looks eventful in Michigan. Looks good to me... Yes I know wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Looks good to me... Yes I know wrong thread. :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Yeah liking our odds with a few clippers that pass through.Monday night and Tuesday clipper is as classic a track as they get for here. Should get something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmosnow Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 lol @ the arctic, wtf is going on up there AAM near the equater is like 3 maybe 4 standard deviations above the average.This sets up a northward wave train of positive 500mb anomalies at 20 degrees north, negative at 45 degrees north and positive again at 70 degrees north.If this were your ordinary El Nino the neg anomalies would be around 30 degrees north and the positive at 55 degrees north.Suspect the extreme of the average angular momentum has something to do with this jump northward in the northern hemispheric anomalies. Models failure to predict this kind of AAM is going to make your typical cold temps southern US warm temps northern US bomb! Details of how out if sight the AAM is right now can be found at @antmasiello on twitter. NCAR used to post this data but they have discontinued it. It might be noted that this kind of AAM will be impossible to maintain so atmosphere will have to make adjustments as it comes back to more recognizable levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 00z gfs keeping something brewing for the period around the 17th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 0Z GFS drowns most places in Michigan in snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmosnow Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 If this forecast of the 250 mb chart at 189 hours verifys Ohio should have received a nice snow fall. Note how Pacific jet maintains its strength and takes up all the energy after its split west of CA so that the northern jet is weak. Weakness of northern jet makes for high lat. blocking and the mid lat. neg anomalies over the US. Jet that extends from central Asia to the mid Atlantic at low latitudes is what gives the incredibly high AAM mentioned in previous post. El Nino is delivering here big time as convection in the subtropical eastern Pacific powers the Pacific jet going over the southern US. Is good thing I think. If the northern jet that goes up towards the GOA ever gets its share of the energy back we will loose the high lat. blocking [ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Next weekend could end up interesting: WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING IS OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THAT POINT THENORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS DIGGING SOUTH WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVEIS TRYING TO EJECT ITSELF OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IF THISPHASES AND THE LATEST ECMWF HINTS AT THAT... WE COULD BE LOOKING ATANOTHER MAJOR WINTER STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Next weekend could end up interesting: WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING IS OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THAT POINT THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS DIGGING SOUTH WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE IS TRYING TO EJECT ITSELF OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IF THIS PHASES AND THE LATEST ECMWF HINTS AT THAT... WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER MAJOR WINTER STORM. Replay of this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 12z gfs buries southern Indiana and Ohio next Sunday. One of the best runs so far for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 12z gfs buries southern Indiana and Ohio next Sunday. One of the best runs so far for us Also has a historic snowstorm for Eastern North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Also has a historic snowstorm for Eastern North Carolina. Yeah looks like a storm of epic proportions... Chances of that varifying to that degree are slim but the pattern does favor a big east coast storm at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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