Thundersnow12 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Maybe it's stupid optimism but I have some optimism about that Saturday-Sunday storm. In the same boat. The 18z GFS tried a little more to have better interaction between the srn stream wave and digging nrn stream ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Maybe it's stupid optimism but I have some optimism about that Saturday-Sunday storm. Yep. East pacific train timed with pv breakdown southeast toward area warrants concern for a decent mid Lat cyclone on leading edge of Arctic air. Something to watch at least. In the same boat. The 18z GFS tried a little more to have better interaction between the srn stream wave and digging nrn stream ULL Okay, if the three of you are optimistic, it's time to start paying attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Sunday has big potential, for a small area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 If I have a snowpack I don't mind gray days but if I don't screw those steel gray skies. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 If there is no snow, I really don't care what happens with the weather. As long as it doesn't get too warm and screw upcoming events. Anyhow. Sunday is looking kind of interesting now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Okay, if the three of you are optimistic, it's time to start paying attention.Definitely something that can't be ruled out. 00z ECMWF last night was most bullish recent operational run and 18z GFS does try. Based on low # of individual members of the GEFS and EPS that have something meaningful for central/western parts of the subforum, seems like a lower probability scenario overall but worth monitoring. If something like 00z Euro last night does occur, we'll also need low level cold to surge in quick enough that run verbatim was marginal at best in the boundary layer for efficient accumulations. We'll see what the 00z runs do. Would like to see positive trends on the operational models and better ensemble support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Hoosier, just realized there were a few posts in the 1/7-1/9 thread about the possible Saturday night - Sunday event. Should our recent posts about it in this thread just be thrown onto the 1/7-1/9 thread? Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I vote to turn the 7-9th storm thread to the 7-10th storm thread. Two waves right together - makes sense. Just posted a map late on the 9th on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I vote to turn the 7-9th storm thread to the 7-10th storm thread. Two waves right together - makes sense. Just posted a map late on the 9th on there. Eh but they are two separate systems especially if something like the 0z GFS verifies and two different swaths of accumulating snow. I'd say make a new thread for the Saturday second system if we see more models jump towards the 0z GFS solution over the next 24hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Eh but they are two separate systems especially if something like the 0z GFS verifies and two different swaths of accumulating snow. I'd say make a new thread for the Saturday second system if we see more models jump towards the 0z GFS solution over the next 24hrs That sounds good. GEM ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Will be interesting to see Midwest snow depths 15 days from now. Could be some impressive depths out there. Not just on some deer in BFE either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 anyone notice the gfs has the first legit clipper on it for the sub? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 GGEM with the 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 anyone notice the gfs has the first legit clipper on it for the sub? Yea, it's a week out so anything is possible. At least it's something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 anyone notice the gfs has the first legit clipper on it for the sub?I have noticed various clippers pop up in the long range on random runs, but this is the first that has remained consistent. God I want a clipper lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 strange times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 strange times not often you see low height anomalies in the desert sw and the great lakes on the same map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 clipper pattern should actually materialize for a stint starting later next week before it's overwhelmed by the Pacific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 10 day euro. Looks like a nice rain snow storm gathering itself together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 It would be nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Teleconnections look very good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I think looking forward this might be the best opportunity for snow we have seen in some time. Up until now the southern branch has always brought in a marginal mixed bag of slop for most of us. I'm looking forward to the arrival of the first clipper of the season. Seems the cold looks to lock in for at least 10 days or so given the MJO AO and NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Anyone notice how the GEFS forecast of the MJO finally getting into phase 8? Which the Euro has continued to show the last two weeks. This now leads to a much colder 12z GFS op run and ensemble mean as well http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/animations/12Z-20160107_gfsUS_850_temp.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Anyone notice how the GEFS forecast of the MJO finally getting into phase 8? Which the Euro has continued to show the last two weeks. This now leads to a much colder 12z GFS op run and ensemble mean as well http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/animations/12Z-20160107_gfsUS_850_temp.gif Not to mention, blocking in the long range in Greenland looks very strong, PNA remains consistently positive...things are looking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Not to mention, blocking in the long range in Greenland looks very strong, PNA remains consistently positive...things are looking up.I don't know, maybe for more consistently at least seasonable cold and ocnl clippers? But for more bigger synoptic storms, looking at prior moderate - strong Niños with strong blocking in J-F, 1955-56, 1965-66, 2002-03, those were low snowfall in Chicago. The 09-10 Niño on the other hand had over 50", but it was a very different episode in that it was a Modoki vs the current basin wide Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I don't know, maybe for more consistently at least seasonable cold and ocnl clippers? But for more bigger synoptic storms, looking at prior moderate - strong Niños with strong blocking in J-F, 1955-56, 1965-66, 2002-03, those were low snowfall in Chicago. The 09-10 Niño on the other hand had over 50", but it was a very different episode in that it was a Modoki vs the current basin wide Niño. Honestly, I'm a fan of seasonable cold and frequent clippers to keep the ground white. I don't need the big dogs, especially if they disappear after several days of temps in the mid 40s and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I don't need the big dogs, especially if they disappear after several days of temps in the mid 40s and rain. i don't think we can be friends any more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 i don't think we can be friends any more Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Honestly, I'm a fan of seasonable cold and frequent clippers to keep the ground white. I don't need the big dogs, especially if they disappear after several days of temps in the mid 40s and rain. Hi, I'm Jon. We are best friends now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Anyone notice how the GEFS forecast of the MJO finally getting into phase 8? Which the Euro has continued to show the last two weeks. This now leads to a much colder 12z GFS op run and ensemble mean as well http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/animations/12Z-20160107_gfsUS_850_temp.gif Noticed that. That was one cold loop. Both the AO and NAO look to drop even more now. Polar vortex is a mess now. It's been pushed off into the North Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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