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Winter 2015-16 Medium-Long Range Discussion

OHweather

By OHweather,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Jonger

Jonger

Posted
Posted

There is a reason Columbus averages ~25 inches and Gaylord regularly hits 150 to 200 inches.

 

The most influential and unique weather maker in the region are the Great Lakes and some of us are just in the wrong spot to take advantage of them. 

 

Chicago's location is probably the biggest kick in the junk the Midwest has to offer. They literally have to watch the moisture evaporate off the lake and feed the snow machine from front row seats.

 

At least I can't see the steam.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

There is a reason Columbus averages ~25 inches and Gaylord regularly hits 150 to 200 inches.

 

The most influential and unique weather maker in the region is the Great Lakes and some of us are just in the wrong spot to take advantage of them. 

 

Chicago's location is probably the biggest kick in the junk the Midwest has to offer. They literally have to watch the moisture evaporate off the lake and feed the snow machine from front row seats.

 

At least I can't see the steam.

 

I've always thought it would be interesting to see the breakdown between synoptic and lake effect for places like Buffalo. Marquette, Grand Rapids, Gaylord etc.    Probably almost impossible to do since synoptic itself is often enhanced by the lakes.

 

I would guess places like Cleveland would probably have very similar snowfall amounts as CMH and places in LES-rich areas of MI would be similar to Chicago totals.

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

There is a reason Columbus averages ~25 inches and Gaylord regularly hits 150 to 200 inches.

 

The most influential and unique weather maker in the region are the Great Lakes and some of us are just in the wrong spot to take advantage of them. 

 

Chicago's location is probably the biggest kick in the junk the Midwest has to offer. They literally have to watch the moisture evaporate off the lake and feed the snow machine from front row seats.

 

At least I can't see the steam.

 

 

when was your last 20"+ event in Howell?

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Jonger

Jonger

Posted
Posted

perpetual gray with mood dust sound depressing

 

This upcoming pattern will probably give me a 6 inch snowpack.

 

My heaviest snow usually comes from LES bands.

 

Although, you know by now that I only care about snowpack. And gray skies maintain snowpack better than sunny days.

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weatherbo

weatherbo

Posted
Posted

I've always thought it would be interesting to see the breakdown between synoptic and lake effect for places like Buffalo. Marquette, Grand Rapids, Gaylord etc.    Probably almost impossible to do since synoptic itself is often enhanced by the lakes.

 

I would guess places like Cleveland would probably have very similar snowfall amounts as CMH and places in LES-rich areas of MI would be similar to Chicago totals.

MQT estimates 60% of the snow that falls here is Lake effect.  So around 122" of their 203" season average.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
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MQT estimates 60% of the snow that falls here is Lake effect.  So around 122" of their 203" season average.

 

wow 122" seems crazy high.  Duluth gets 63" a year.   If there were no lake effect what would account for Marquette doubling that?

 

edit: and Duluth probably even gets some lake effect too, so that might even be high for pure synoptic.  Maybe Minneapolis might be a better gauge at 45".

 

It's like comparing Columbus to Indianapolis

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
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But I'm sure JB's favorite model, the Brazilian, is showing some snow for Atlanta ;)

 

lol.  Yea that was yesterday I think, (when he pulled out the Brazilian for Atlanta).   He bashes the gfs on a daily basis, and then turns around and pulls out the Brazilian meteograms.   I remember back in fall he was showing the Brazilian meteograms for Chicago which showed stupid cold and tons of snow throughout December and on Christmas  :lmao:

 

This morning he was using the Euro eps CONTROL to show snowfall in the 6-10 day period which had a good chunk of the OV in 6". These are the things that make him so entertaining and yet so deserving of all the bashing he gets.

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XfireLOW

XfireLOW

Posted
Posted

wow 122" seems crazy high.  Duluth gets 63" a year.   If there were no lake effect what would account for Marquette doubling that?

 

edit: and Duluth probably even gets some lake effect too, so that might even be high for pure synoptic.  Maybe Minneapolis might be a better gauge at 45".

 

It's like comparing Columbus to Indianapolis

 

If you want to compare UP snowfall to Minnesota this map may be helpful.

 

http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/summaries_and_publications/normals_snow_1981_2010.html

 

Just remember that lake enhanced snows are very prevalent on the MN north shore, combined that with the elevation rise off of the lake leads to the 95" bulls eye. 

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dta1984

dta1984

Posted
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I've always thought it would be interesting to see the breakdown between synoptic and lake effect for places like Buffalo. Marquette, Grand Rapids, Gaylord etc. Probably almost impossible to do since synoptic itself is often enhanced by the lakes.

I would guess places like Cleveland would probably have very similar snowfall amounts as CMH and places in LES-rich areas of MI would be similar to Chicago totals.

Buckeye, beginning last year I attempted to note when I record snowfall which is lake effect. This is purely fwiw since we get a decent amount of lake enhancement and lake effect that can blend with a synoptic storm.....but;

Total snow last season; 110"

Lake effect only; 45"

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

Buckeye, beginning last year I attempted to note when I record snowfall which is lake effect. This is purely fwiw since we get a decent amount of lake enhancement and lake effect that can blend with a synoptic storm.....but;

Total snow last season; 110"

Lake effect only; 45"

 

I think the most accurate way to estimate what a LES location would receive in synoptic only, is to compare to nearby locations that are not effected by LES and are on the same latitude.    Unless there are some topographic anomalies, a city like Minneapolis should be very comparable to Marquette.   Likewise Cleveland and Toledo would probably be a good comparison. 

 

Columbus and Indy are a perfect example.....they are very similar.

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ClicheVortex2014

ClicheVortex2014

Posted
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lol.  Yea that was yesterday I think, (when he pulled out the Brazilian for Atlanta).   He bashes the gfs on a daily basis, and then turns around and pulls out the Brazilian meteograms.   I remember back in fall he was showing the Brazilian meteograms for Chicago which showed stupid cold and tons of snow throughout December and on Christmas  :lmao:

 

This morning he was using the Euro eps CONTROL to show snowfall in the 6-10 day period which had a good chunk of the OV in 6". These are the things that make him so entertaining and yet so deserving of all the bashing he gets.

If you look back at his Twitter feed from early December, he was soooo sold on a pattern change from 12/15-25. He's obviously very smart, but sometimes his love for winter gets in the way of his forecasting. Sometimes he nails forecasts in a very impressive fashion, other times he just flops. 

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RCNYILWX

RCNYILWX

Posted
Posted

There's very strong ensemble support for the cold coming next week, still questions on magnitude of it. Peak looks to be Monday, followed by still chilly but less cold through end of next work week. The 12z Euro and EPS have a great setup developing for LES in the eastern Lakes with persistent cold west - southwest flow. Outside of the LES belts, unless the Saturday - Sunday southern stream wave can trend more northwest (there's only a few members on both EPS and GEFS that are far enough west to impact western sub), generally dry weather appears likely outside of any as yet unmodeled clippers.

Beyond next week, appears we'll hold onto some semblance of a +PNA, but general trend on ensembles is for GOA low/trough to tuck in closer to the west coast, which entails a +EPO and would force trough axis farther east, resulting in seasonable or milder Pacific airmasses moving in on NW/WNW flow. Trough orientation also would likely keep storm track mainly south of the region, favoring gulf Coast and east coast. GEFS is most bullish on a torchy pattern developing but EPS and GEPS are also a pretty mild look in their later ranges. They suggest +EPO would trump possible -NAO still in place in the last 10 days of the month. Overall, will probably be a decent pattern for the east coast and possibly far eastern lakes even when/if -EPO goes away. For much of the subforum, I don't see much cause for optimism for a large scale winter system in the medium and long range. Hopefully I'm wrong.

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OHweather

OHweather

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There's very strong ensemble support for the cold coming next week, still questions on magnitude of it. Peak looks to be Monday, followed by still chilly but less cold through end of next work week. The 12z Euro and EPS have a great setup developing for LES in the eastern Lakes with persistent cold west - southwest flow. Outside of the LES belts, unless the Saturday - Sunday southern stream wave can trend more northwest (there's only a few members on both EPS and GEFS that are far enough west to impact western sub), generally dry weather appears likely outside of any as yet unmodeled clippers.

Beyond next week, appears we'll hold onto some semblance of a +PNA, but general trend on ensembles is for GOA low/trough to tuck in closer to the west coast, which entails a +EPO and would force trough axis farther east, resulting in seasonable or milder Pacific airmasses moving in on NW/WNW flow. Trough orientation also would likely keep storm track mainly south of the region, favoring gulf Coast and east coast. GEFS is most bullish on a torchy pattern developing but EPS and GEPS are also a pretty mild look in their later ranges. They suggest +EPO would trump possible -NAO still in place in the last 10 days of the month. Overall, will probably be a decent pattern for the east coast and possibly far eastern lakes even when/if -EPO goes away. For much of the subforum, I don't see much cause for optimism for a large scale winter system in the medium and long range. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Outside of the small chance for the Saturday wave to come in stronger, I'm definitely more pessimistic than I was last week on widespread heavy synoptic snows later in the month.
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