Harry Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Oh, I see what you're saying. Being closer to the lake definitely helps me in these events, because I still get dumped on...even though it would be lots more if flake size was better. It's definitely harder for you to get the heavier snow depths when you're farther away from the lake and the snowbands are fizzling. As has been mentioned, if we can get clippers to wrap around and add some moisture and instability...it will still be a good show here too. Yeah a clipper ( See 13-14 in which we got destroyed by the lake enhanced snows via a couple of clippers ) or as mentioned above a well placed low to our north can help overcome that ( moisture issue ) in a big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Yeah a clipper ( See 13-14 in which we got destroyed by the lake enhanced snows via a couple of clippers ) or as mentioned above a well placed low to our north can help overcome that ( moisture issue ) in a big way. Ahhh, I loved that winter. 150 inches of snow with a 3 foot snow depth for months... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 CMC hasn't really caught on to the LES further south in MI, but does have the clipper http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016010500/gem_asnow_us_40.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 CMC hasn't really caught on to the LES further south in MI, but does have the clipper http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016010500/gem_asnow_us_40.png If Michigan tops out at only gets 8 inches out of the whole period, I'll swim a lap in Lake Superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Lack of moisture. The colder the air mass the less moisture and we deal with a short fetch and thus why it is more unique to lake Michigan vs the other lakes except when we have a north flow down the lake.Conversely how many of those events had water temperatures still in the mid 40s. I think this ends up being a great event even for Lake Michigan if the models are correct. However I wouldn't be shocked if they backed off on the magnitude of the cold air just because longer range models tend to get overzealous with arctic plunges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 If Michigan tops out at only gets 8 inches out of the whole period, I'll swim a lap in Lake Superior. A lap as in one end to the other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Conversely how many of those events had water temperatures still in the mid 40s. I think this ends up being a great event even for Lake Michigan if the models are correct. However I wouldn't be shocked if they backed off on the magnitude of the cold air just because longer range models tend to get overzealous with arctic plunges Good point about the water temps. I don't recall having this kind of set up in January ( since i moved here ) with such warm waters and cold like some of the models are advertising? And yeah the models probably will back off some with the cold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Looks like the air is going to be too cold to get good flake growth off of Lake Superior. AROUND THE 9TH LONGEST STREAK OF TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE ZERO. THAT COLD AIR (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -24C ON SUNDAY) WILL KICK THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE BACK INTO GEAR FOR THE AREA...BUT THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THE CLOUD GENERALLY ABOVE THE DGZ LEADING TO SMALLER FLAKES. THAT WILL KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK AND LIKELY WOULD ONLY SEE ADVISORY AMOUNTS IN THE TRADITIONAL WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS. THE GREATER IMPACT WITH THE SMALLER FLAKES WILL BE THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ENOUGH WIND TO BLOW THE SNOW AROUND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Zzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 You know it's a horrible winter when the general medium long range thread is dominated by LES talk. Can you LES guys take your talk somewhere else. It's kind of rude. Like eating a feast in front of starving kids. Now back to our synoptic chances....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 THE PATTERN BECOMES FAR MORE INTERESTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH A STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE ALLOWING AN IMPRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THE MEAN PATTERN FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A DEEP TROUGH CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY...WITH NUMEROUS HIGH AMPLITUDE CLIPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. PAST CLIMATOLOGY RESEARCH AND EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THIS PATTERN CAN BE VERY ACTIVE FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN OUR REGION...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE WITH THIS PATTERN AS WELL. DEEP COLD AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG AND DEEP LAKE RESPONSE AT TIMES...WITH THE NUMEROUS MID LEVEL WAVES PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE. THESE WAVES WILL ALSO BRING CHANGES TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DIRECTION... SUGGESTING MIGRATING BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. OBVIOUSLY AT THIS TIME RANGE THE DETAILS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN...BUT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING... SIGNIFICANT...HIGH IMPACT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I like the way he thinks.... TEMPERATURES WILL BE TURNING COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK. NCEP/WPCMODELS AND OTHER MODELS WERE HAVING A HARD TIME HANDLING UPSTREAMBLOCKING WITH ANOMALOUSLY STRONG FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERNPACIFIC PER CPC/GFS ANALOGS. AMPLE ENERGY WILL BE CUTTING UNDERTHE UPSTREAM RIDGE/BLOCK. THE ANALOG CORRELATION COEFFICIENTREMAINS HIGH WITH VALUES OVER 0.90 ON ALL OF THE RUNS. GIVEN THISHIGH CORRELATION AND MATCHES TO ANALOGS WITH ACTIVE PATTERNS THEPAST SEVERAL RUNS SUGGESTS INTERESTING WEATHER BEYOND THE END OFTHE FORECAST PERIOD.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I like the way he thinks.... TEMPERATURES WILL BE TURNING COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK. NCEP/WPC MODELS AND OTHER MODELS WERE HAVING A HARD TIME HANDLING UPSTREAM BLOCKING WITH ANOMALOUSLY STRONG FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC PER CPC/GFS ANALOGS. AMPLE ENERGY WILL BE CUTTING UNDER THE UPSTREAM RIDGE/BLOCK. THE ANALOG CORRELATION COEFFICIENT REMAINS HIGH WITH VALUES OVER 0.90 ON ALL OF THE RUNS. GIVEN THIS HIGH CORRELATION AND MATCHES TO ANALOGS WITH ACTIVE PATTERNS THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS SUGGESTS INTERESTING WEATHER BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && This will include models struggling. The results wont be good for everybody, but at this point all you can ask for is active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 You know it's a horrible winter when the general medium long range thread is dominated by LES talk. Can you LES guys take your talk somewhere else. It's kind of rude. Like eating a feast in front of starving kids. Now back to our synoptic chances....... you need a warm blanky and a paci. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 You know it's a horrible winter when the general medium long range thread is dominated by LES talk. Can you LES guys take your talk somewhere else. It's kind of rude. Like eating a feast in front of starving kids. Now back to our synoptic chances....... i thought we had LES threads in past years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 i thought we had LES threads in past years We have one now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 you need a warm blanky and a paci. brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 not a good look for big dogs or cutters and check out that polar torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 All u can Trace-2" snowfalls for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 12z = disaster wake me up in May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 12z = disaster wake me up in May I haven't checked yet, but I'm excited now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 And I was worried about winter not coming. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 no one cares about 3' of snow falling on some deer in the middle of nowhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 no one cares about 3' of snow falling on some deer in the middle of nowhere I'll send you pics of someone caring from those places soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I like the way he thinks.... TEMPERATURES WILL BE TURNING COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK. NCEP/WPC MODELS AND OTHER MODELS WERE HAVING A HARD TIME HANDLING UPSTREAM BLOCKING WITH ANOMALOUSLY STRONG FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC PER CPC/GFS ANALOGS. AMPLE ENERGY WILL BE CUTTING UNDER THE UPSTREAM RIDGE/BLOCK. THE ANALOG CORRELATION COEFFICIENT REMAINS HIGH WITH VALUES OVER 0.90 ON ALL OF THE RUNS. GIVEN THIS HIGH CORRELATION AND MATCHES TO ANALOGS WITH ACTIVE PATTERNS THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS SUGGESTS INTERESTING WEATHER BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && Did the dude from Quad Cities relocate to Indiana? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Did the dude from Quad Cities relocate to Indiana? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 no one cares about 3' of snow falling on some deer in the middle of nowhere I wouldn't say no one...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Next 10 days. Not even wxbell... (WXBELL for godsakes)...can even muster up a tenth of an inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Next 10 days. Not even wxbell... (WXBELL for godsakes)...can even muster up a tenth of an inch of snow. pretty terrible even for the lake belts times are tough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Dry and cold fellas. Hard to muster up a cloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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