DAFF Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Looks like the MJO might plant itself in the 7/8 and do a cold air wobble with the slightly negative WPO which also is a cold precursor. Combined this with a very positive PNA..... => cold and dry outside of the down wind LES belts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Ah, ok... you're one of those snow-or-GTFO guys That describes most people here - it's how the board was founded. Even if just a preference for cold (like me), you can't have serious cold without snow OTG. Have you visited the NE forum? As has been mentioned elsewhere, cold and snow is fleeting in these parts, which probably makes people wish for it even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Ah, ok... you're one of those snow-or-GTFO guys In DJF I am. Any other month of the year I don't care what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 That describes most people here - it's how the board was founded. Even if just a preference for cold (like me), you can't have serious cold without snow OTG. Have you visited the NE forum? As has been mentioned elsewhere, cold and snow is fleeting in these parts, which probably makes people wish for it even more. Haha yeah I've been there. They're.... passionate... about snow, for sure. There's nothing wrong with that. Seems like a good deal of Midwestern posters are able to enjoy all kinds of severe weather. In my book, this December was pretty good for being snowless; at least we had severe weather to track. December 2014 was about as bad as it gets... no snow, no severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Haha yeah I've been there. They're.... passionate... about snow, for sure. There's nothing wrong with that. Seems like a good deal of Midwestern posters are able to enjoy all kinds of severe weather. In my book, this December was pretty good for being snowless; at least we had severe weather to track. December 2014 was about as bad as it gets... no snow, no severe weather. Yep, I hear you. Hopefully we can get some deep winter for a little while - kind of strange to see the January 1978 analog being thrown around by some, given the current situation and how Dec/Jan have behaved up to this point. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Haha yeah I've been there. They're.... passionate... about snow, for sure. There's nothing wrong with that. Seems like a good deal of Midwestern posters are able to enjoy all kinds of severe weather. In my book, this December was pretty good for being snowless; at least we had severe weather to track. December 2014 was about as bad as it gets... no snow, no severe weather. The only severe I really track are derechos. The December severe event ended up being stratiform rain with an embedded heavier downpour for 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 The only severe I really track are derechos. The December severe event ended up being stratiform rain with an embedded heavier downpour for 10 minutes. Don't really like the 11/17's, etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Yep, I hear you. Hopefully we can get some deep winter for a little while - kind of strange to see the January 1978 analog being thrown around by some, given the current situation and how Dec/Jan have behaved up to this point. We shall see. Eh - I'm used to 1976/1977/1978 being thrown around after the past 2 winters It is different to see it used for an individual storm though. Shame it doesn't look to be anywhere near that magnitude though. Those years had some storms I would've loved to experience. The only severe I really track are derechos. The December severe event ended up being stratiform rain with an embedded heavier downpour for 10 minutes. I got hit by 2 squalls on 12/23, so I'm more than happy with that for December's standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Don't really like the 11/17's, etc? Well, anything that potentially contributed to the butterfly effect and gave us winter 2013-2014, I'm a fan of. LOL I had a 57mph gust that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Warm Lakes: Combined with this: = very happy winter sport fans To far to mention placement or intensity, but KBUF mentioning a lake effect snow event with this wording this far out means book a room in Buffalo/Tug/Gaylord areas. THE PATTERN BEGINNING MONDAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS WELL SUITED FOR A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT LAKE RESPONSE. 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP FROM AROUND BETWEEN -10C TO -20C DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...DAY...AND FORECAST SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NEXT WEEK WITH A WESTERLY OR SW FLOW...AGAIN DEPENDENT ON DAY AND MODEL. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OR LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US IS SIMILAR THE OVERALL PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WINTERS...WITH HISTORICAL RESEARCH SHOWING THAT THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED LAKE EFFECT EVENTS...ASSUMING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE DO NOT MEANDER TOO MUCH. THIS NOTABLE PATTERN SHIFT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED HERE SINCE AT LEAST SATURDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WADE THROUGH THE VARYING FORECASTS FOR NEXT WEEKEND PRIOR TO THE COOL DOWN...BUT AS DISCUSSED IN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS...THIS IS A CLEAR SIGNAL...SO CONFIDENCE FOR A LAKE EFFECT EVENT...POSSIBLY A PROLONGED ONE...LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY TOWARD LOCATION THIS FAR OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 To far to mention placement or intensity, but KBUF mentioning a lake effect snow event with this wording this far out means book a room in Buffalo/Tug/Gaylord areas. THE PATTERN BEGINNING MONDAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS WELL SUITED FOR A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT LAKE RESPONSE. 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP FROM AROUND BETWEEN -10C TO -20C DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...DAY...AND FORECAST SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NEXT WEEK WITH A WESTERLY OR SW FLOW...AGAIN DEPENDENT ON DAY AND MODEL. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OR LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US IS SIMILAR THE OVERALL PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WINTERS...WITH HISTORICAL RESEARCH SHOWING THAT THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED LAKE EFFECT EVENTS...ASSUMING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE DO NOT MEANDER TOO MUCH. THIS NOTABLE PATTERN SHIFT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED HERE SINCE AT LEAST SATURDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WADE THROUGH THE VARYING FORECASTS FOR NEXT WEEKEND PRIOR TO THE COOL DOWN...BUT AS DISCUSSED IN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS...THIS IS A CLEAR SIGNAL...SO CONFIDENCE FOR A LAKE EFFECT EVENT...POSSIBLY A PROLONGED ONE...LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY TOWARD LOCATION THIS FAR OUT. In all the years of watching model response to arctic outbreaks following a departing system, this one really looks shocking. I know Buffalo had their event last year, but this one looks more widespread. After putting up with this start of winter, we deserve it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 00z GFS has exactly what BUF is talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 00z GFS has exactly what BUF is talking about I would never use those maps in extrapolating lake effect snow totals. But yeah, from Late Sunday night all the way into the following Sunday there will be feet and feet of LES off all the lakes. The flow now looks between W/SW for days and days. The potential with record warm lake waters is insane. By Saturday we should have a good idea on location/intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 It's the clipper that passes through on the 12th that kicks off the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 This could be one of the most inland effected LES systems in ages, GFS shows me getting 3.6 out of it, but knowing it's tendency to screw up LES, it might be too high or low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I would never use those maps in extrapolating lake effect snow totals. But yeah, from Late Sunday night all the way into the following Sunday there will be feet and feet of LES off all the lakes. The flow now looks between W/SW for days and days. The potential with record warm lake waters is insane. By Saturday we should have a good idea on location/intensity. Not off of Lake Michigan.. Atleast the southern half of the lake. Too much cold which would at the very least kill the flake size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 It's the clipper that passes through on the 12th that kicks off the lakes. Hours 136 to 276 have the lakes blazing, all of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I would never use those maps in extrapolating lake effect snow totals. But yeah, from Late Sunday night all the way into the following Sunday there will be feet and feet of LES off all the lakes. The flow now looks between W/SW for days and days. The potential with record warm lake waters is insane. By Saturday we should have a good idea on location/intensity. These maps typically under do lake events... They don't account for the ratio entirely. It's WAY too early to pin any amounts down yet, but 3 feet as a jackpot isn't overdoing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Not off of Lake Michigan.. Atleast the southern half of the lake. Too much cold which would at the very least kill the flake size. Yeah I like the upper Michigan better for next weeks event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Wait... Is Lake Nipigon really ice free? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 GRR NWS is even discussing the significant lake effect snow possibilities for next week. That is pretty big for them. My area does fantastic in W and SW events, as long as the wind isn't blowing too strongly. The GFS has looked really good for many runs in a row now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Yeah I like the upper Michigan better for next weeks event. Gaylord is such a hot spot since it's essentially fed by Superior and Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 GFS took the weekend system a hair south. Might stay all snow in Gaylord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 GRR NWS is even discussing the significant lake effect snow possibilities for next week. That is pretty big for them. My area does fantastic in W and SW events, as long as the wind isn't blowing too strongly. The GFS has looked really good for many runs in a row now. Yeah every NWS is mentioning it a full week in advance with some strong wording. Should be a fun one to track. It's also accompanied by some clippers/mid level waves moving through so everyone should get a taste in the lakes region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Not off of Lake Michigan.. Atleast the southern half of the lake. Too much cold which would at the very least kill the flake size. Why would the cold only kill the flake size off of Lake Michigan only? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 GRR NWS is even discussing the significant lake effect snow possibilities for next week. That is pretty big for them. My area does fantastic in W and SW events, as long as the wind isn't blowing too strongly. The GFS has looked really good for many runs in a row now. Lets just hope it is not as cold as the GFS shows. Have seen to many decent set ups wasted because it ended up being too cold. We ended up with a pixie dust storm.. Only way around it would be if a low hung out in N.MI/just east of superior which would give us some help via more of a flow off of superior as the flow would be more northerly up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I would never use those maps in extrapolating lake effect snow totals. But yeah, from Late Sunday night all the way into the following Sunday there will be feet and feet of LES off all the lakes. The flow now looks between W/SW for days and days. The potential with record warm lake waters is insane. By Saturday we should have a good idea on location/intensity. Oh yeah, absolutely. And I can see how GFS would be too conservative with the totals. Was just thinking it's a good sign that it's picking up on the pattern favorable for quasi-stationary snow bands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Yeah every NWS is mentioning it a full week in advance with some strong wording. Should be a fun one to track. It's also accompanied by some clippers/mid level waves moving through so everyone should get a taste in the lakes region. Clippers with a SW flow ahead of them rock in my area. That's when we get the lake enhanced snows that dump a foot in 6 hours. It's about time winter kicks in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Why would the cold only kill the flake size off of Lake Michigan only? Lack of moisture. The colder the air mass the less moisture and we deal with a short fetch and thus why it is more unique to lake Michigan vs the other lakes except when we have a north flow down the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Lack of moisture. The colder the air mass the less moisture and we deal with a short fetch and thus why it is more unique to lake Michigan vs the other lakes except when we have a north flow down the lake. Oh, I see what you're saying. Being closer to the lake definitely helps me in these events, because I still get dumped on...even though it would be lots more if flake size was better. It's definitely harder for you to get the heavier snow depths when you're farther away from the lake and the snowbands are fizzling. As has been mentioned, if we can get clippers to wrap around and add some moisture and instability...it will still be a good show here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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