Stebo Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 GEM says yes, brutal cold. Probably over done, but even if you add 10°, it's going to feel brutal. Gem has said this was coming for 15 days now. Maybe it will come in another 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Lets hope it comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Euro Ens say cold. Lakes would get killed in this set-up. Obviously a more suppressed look, but once you get the cold anything can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 GFS shows it at about the 12th too. Ensembles support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 3, 2016 Author Share Posted January 3, 2016 Euro Ens say cold. Lakes would get killed in this set-up. Obviously a more suppressed look, but once you get the cold anything can happen. Well, anything can happen for you with some 45F waters still showing up in the eastern basin of Lake Erie in early January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Canadian, Euro, and GFS all agree on the cold dumping in early next week. The solutions on how it arrives and affects our sensible weather vary wildly from Thursday until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 What he said was "maybe" with the other caveat being " the country as a whole may have a colder two week period than last year" Soiunds impressive, but the country as whole being colder than previous two winters is not that difficult. I would add his reasoning is warm pocket in pacific is further south and west then some El Niño which based on his studies of this type allows for a flip to cold. As opposed to the warmth farther east which maintains more of a southeast ridge keeping our forum area warm for the majority of the winter. We shall see. I might also add I've been drinking whiskey since Iowa Shiat the bed in the Rose Bowl yesterday. So take my posts as you will. I believe what he said is that the two week period might be equal to anything we've had over the past two years. I don't believe he said it would outdo it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I believe what he said is that the two week period might be equal to anything we've had over the past two years. I don't believe he said it would outdo it. Not possible to get close to anything we have seen the last two winters. With no snow OTG and warm lakes. At least the eastern and central lakes. Maybe in Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Not possible to get close to anything we have seen the last two winters. With no snow OTG and warm lakes. At least the eastern and central lakes. Maybe in Minnesota. The premise is "the whole country." Previous years severe cold was geared towards the Midwest and east, while the west stayed warm. I suspect if the entire 48 goes cold for a 5-10 day period uniformly this would not be difficult to achieve nor would it mean severe cold outbreak in our neck of the woods. Word play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 The premise is "the whole country." Previous years severe cold was geared towards the Midwest and east, while the west stayed warm. I suspect if the entire 48 goes cold for a 5-10 day period uniformly this would not be difficult to achieve nor would it mean severe cold outbreak in our neck of the woods. Word play. If it's the country as a whole, then that's a different story. buckeye's original post was a little unclear and not totally unreasonable to think that the "we" in that post just meant our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Well, anything can happen for you with some 45F waters still showing up in the eastern basin of Lake Erie in early January Hey, a lot of people in this forum get hit good from meandering lake effet snow bands! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 12z GFS and Euro look absolutely incredible for the west coast. It's just storm after storm after storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 12z GFS and Euro look absolutely incredible for the west coast. It's just storm after storm after storm. El nino has done as advertised. It will be interesting seeing the drought impact after spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 El nino has done as advertised. It will be interesting seeing the drought impact after spring. I've said from the beginning that as long as we get a Super Nino and/or the west coast gets substantial rain, I don't care what happens in the east. Being that I like winter weather but not this kind of extreme cold, mother nature is putting my statement to the test. So I'm gonna try my hardest to remember this while I walk to classes next week... lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 00z GFS came south a bit for the weekend storm. Still doesn't do most of us any good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 0z GFS gets 850's of -30 deg C down to nearly MSN on day 9. Flashback of the last few winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 PV dropping south on the Euro early next week, can't wait for the nauseating headlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 disaster pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 disaster pattern Maybe we can sneak a front end thumper as we go back to warm and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 February is gonna rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 disaster pattern that'll be a fun pattern with no snow cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Do not want brutal cold. I would prefer a torch over cold & dry after the last two winters. Nothing good comes of brutal cold unless you're in the snow belts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Looks like we could get some consolation flurries Saturday after the rain melts away our existing half inch of crust. Then brutal cold over bare/nearly bare ground. Sounds like a **** sandwich to me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The storm behind the weekend storm is starting to look a bit more interesting. Personally I think I'll be rooting for the lead system to track as far northwest as possible as that should open the door to a farther northwest track for the system afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 disaster pattern Thankfully the amount of energy coming in from the Pacific should undercut that ridge along the coast. If we can keep energy crashing into California/Oregon, we at least would have a chance of something popping for us in time. Also with the ridge being undercut, it would allow for the pattern to remain progressive and not lock in this brutal cold snowless pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The storm behind the weekend storm is starting to look a bit more interesting. Personally I think I'll be rooting for the lead system to track as far northwest as possible as that should open the door to a farther northwest track for the system afterward. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Yes Check out the 12z UKMET. The initial low cuts to Lake Superior and the second one goes toward Fort Wayne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Super hyped for this pattern. Hotels booked. Johndee going all out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 GFS is really close to having all snow from about here on north for the system at weeks end. Hopefully the system can advect in some slightly colder surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Check out the 12z UKMET. The initial low cuts to Lake Superior and the second one goes toward Fort Wayne. That is interesting, it would be closer to phasing with the trailing piece coming in from Manitoba too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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