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Winter 2015-16 Medium-Long Range Discussion


OHweather

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Speaking of that, do you happen to know the development details of the GFS now? Did they keep it in Fortran or transition over to a new language? I have a project I'm working on that relies on some of the original code structure...

 

Looks like the source code can be found here

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One thing is certain...the brutal cold is coming. Interestingly for us in the southern Lakes & OV, the rainy gfs & euro op runs are north/warmer than their ensembles. If it does rain, we can still get snow as a clipper train looks plausible let per long range models & naturally les. But if we endure that cold snap without snowcover...ouch.

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Naso certain

 

 

Agree...it will be cold and a heck of a lot colder than what happened in December, but I don't know about truly brutal cold in the next week or two.

 

This seems to be following nicely with the expected pattern evolution this winter, going from sustained warmth to the cold shots becoming longer lasting with time and conditions actually resembling winter. 

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In yesterday's vid....JB says the cold period coming mid January will out do any 2 week cold shot we had the last 2 winters  :whistle:

 

Of course, a week or so ago he mentioned the '78 January bomb when describing what could happen with the, (what is now), non-event Jan, 10-12 period.

 

 

That's going to be really tough to pull off, especially in this part of the country.  It's like he forgot how cold it was the past couple winters.

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In yesterday's vid....JB says the cold period coming mid January will out do any 2 week cold shot we had the last 2 winters  :whistle:

 

Of course, a week or so ago he mentioned the '78 January bomb when describing what could happen with the, (what is now), non-event Jan, 10-12 period.

 

We better get some widespread snowcover in here fast if that's going to happen.

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IMHO very rare to establish a good clipper train in an El Niño winter. Better chance we go modified cold and dry with the real action south states and up the east coast. Just based on my historical knowledge..nothing more.

Yeah everything gets shunted south and we end up in cold and dry.
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In yesterday's vid....JB says the cold period coming mid January will out do any 2 week cold shot we had the last 2 winters :whistle:

Of course, a week or so ago he mentioned the '78 January bomb when describing what could happen with the, (what is now), non-event Jan, 10-12 period.

Lol. I have never felt cold like I felt Jan 6, 2014. Wind chills -50s (with the old wc index it would have been probably -60 to -70). JB never learns.
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Quite a few different solutions of the Day 7-8 system GEFS.

 

 

 

Interestingly,  DT posted this on his FB page.  Apparently it's the euro para model which is new and supposedly superior to the current operational euro???   Anyways, it shows the storm on the 10th, where as the OP euro showed nada.   Will be interesting to see if it starts showing up again in coming runs on the euro.

post-622-0-39620400-1451779034_thumb.jpg

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Interestingly, DT posted this on his FB page. Apparently it's the euro para model which is new and supposedly superior to the current operational euro??? Anyways, it shows the storm on the 10th, where as the OP euro showed nada. Will be interesting to see if it starts showing up again in coming runs on the euro.

Canadian more or less had a similar solution last couple runs fwiw

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Interestingly,  DT posted this on his FB page.  Apparently it's the euro para model which is new and supposedly superior to the current operational euro???   Anyways, it shows the storm on the 10th, where as the OP euro showed nada.   Will be interesting to see if it starts showing up again in coming runs on the euro.

 

I'm guessing that para EURO is what they're upgrading the current EURO to?

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In yesterday's vid....JB says the cold period coming mid January will out do any 2 week cold shot we had the last 2 winters  :whistle:

 

Of course, a week or so ago he mentioned the '78 January bomb when describing what could happen with the, (what is now), non-event Jan, 10-12 period.

Either he's talking locally or he's just wishcasting... I don't see any way this'll out-do February 2015

 

post-13588-0-52763900-1451782303_thumb.p

 

Between the 13th and 28th, that's an average daily departure of -20F.

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I've lost count how many times we've had a track over or north of us in the past couple months.

 

 

Noon GFS ensemble  run has track well to the south of you.Think this is going to be a system worth following though this year even the ensembles have not been consistent this far out.Euro 1200z track, I see taking another look,has track very close to your area.

 

 Still the fact the east coast people are talking about a cutter is sign that the times they are a changing!

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In yesterday's vid....JB says the cold period coming mid January will out do any 2 week cold shot we had the last 2 winters :whistle:

Of course, a week or so ago he mentioned the '78 January bomb when describing what could happen with the, (what is now), non-event Jan, 10-12 period.

What he said was "maybe" with the other caveat being " the country as a whole may have a colder two week period than last year" Soiunds impressive, but the country as whole being colder than previous two winters is not that difficult. I would add his reasoning is warm pocket in pacific is further south and west then some El Niño which based on his studies of this type allows for a flip to cold. As opposed to the warmth farther east which maintains more of a southeast ridge keeping our forum area warm for the majority of the winter. We shall see.

I might also add I've been drinking whiskey since Iowa Shiat the bed in the Rose Bowl yesterday. So take my posts as you will.

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One thing is certain...the brutal cold is coming. Interestingly for us in the southern Lakes & OV, the rainy gfs & euro op runs are north/warmer than their ensembles. If it does rain, we can still get snow as a clipper train looks plausible let per long range models & naturally les. But if we endure that cold snap without snowcover...ouch.

Brutal?

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