dan123 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 +PNA/-AO/-NAO/-EPO and a strong subtropical jet = suppressed especially with the magnitude the AO goes negative potentially. Honestly I don't even think the NAO is going to negative yet. I think the southern and eastern sections of the sub forum have the best shot for storms IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 +PNA/-AO/-NAO/-EPO and a strong subtropical jet = suppressed especially with the magnitude the AO goes negative potentially. Congrats D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I've been looking at that timeframe also. I makes no sense, luckily the ensembles don't look as mild. Not even touching the EURO, based off its crappy performance handling that storm! Good lord, the CMC looks cold 9 days from now. freezing line to ohio river at 12z on Jan 7th isn't exactly 'good lord' cold lol. But yea, relatively speaking for this year, you can definitely make that argument I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Congrats D.C. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Honestly I don't even think the NAO is going to negative yet. I think the southern and eastern sections of the sub forum have the best shot for storms IMO. So suppressed then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 We'll see. Care to offer up reasoning? Your last several posts reek of wishcasting with no evidence behind them. Just because you think the NAO isn't going to go negative doesn't mean much of anything when empirical data off the ensembles are clearly forecasting it to go in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 freezing line to ohio river at 12z on Jan 7th isn't exactly 'good lord' cold lol. But yea, relatively speaking for this year, you can definitely make that argument I guess. I agree with the first bit, but you can see there's a sharp temp gradient just northwest of Cincinnati... even more so when you get to the Ohio/Mississippi river confluence. So it may be 32 degrees here, but temps in the teens isn't far away. Plus, Ohioians are the eastern minority on this subforum... most of the subforum is seeing "good lord" cold... especially compared to what December has been like. It's like jumping into a "cold" pool on a torching July day... shrinkage and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 So suppressed then? Not suppressed and don't accuse me of wish casting. Mets in the NE forum are saying be wary of the heights near the NAO region. I'm offering my thoughts on what I think could happen. If you don't like it too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Not suppressed and don't accuse me of wish casting. Mets in the NE forum are saying be wary of the heights near the NAO region. I'm offering my thoughts on what I think could happen. If you don't like it too bad. No actually you aren't offering any thoughts, that is the issue, and yes the southern and eastern parts of the subforum would be a suppressed storm track. Furthermore the meteorologists in NE are talking about their forum, what is good for them is bad for us and even they are saying be wary of the heights meaning the pattern could be bad for them as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 +PNA/-AO/-NAO/-EPO and a strong subtropical jet = suppressed especially with the magnitude the AO goes negative potentially. I'd rather build up snowpack through nickle and diming instead of the constant melting and sleety mess we keep seeing. I know it's ideal to be on the eastern edge of a trough, but the rough part of that deal are the high pressures than slip under the jet and pump warm air north and crush your snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I'd rather build up snowpack through nickle and diming instead of the constant melting and sleety mess we keep seeing. I know it's ideal to be on the eastern edge of a trough, but the rough part of that deal are the high pressures than slip under the jet and pump warm air north and crush your snowpack. Well I don't expect prolonged snow packs this winter anyways, unless we build up a base with a couple of snowstorms (unlikely). That said for your interests there will be plenty of snow downwind of Lake Superior up north or in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I don't even know what we are debating. The GFS has at least 1 or 2 hits in the medium range for the subforum, with LES to follow. It's a good pattern for everyone but people who should be renting a condo in Miami next to the Golden Girls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 freezing line to ohio river at 12z on Jan 7th isn't exactly 'good lord' cold lol. But yea, relatively speaking for this year, you can definitely make that argument I guess. It was the sub zero temps moving southeast that grabbed my attention. Day 10 Canada really fills up with sub zero temps and they start spilling across the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 I have to think there's a window for a storm that isn't suppressed in the sub-forum in the January 8-10 timeframe. The PNA will be going positive, the EPO and AO negative, however despite the higher heights over Greenland I wouldn't call this a classic -NAO, and with such a fairly robust trough coming out of the Southwest I could see a storm that intensifies and tracks into the Ohio Valley or even the southern Great Lakes if there's enough northern stream interaction. That trough over the Southwest could very well try to temporarily pump up a SE ridge. Beyond this timeframe the overall pattern looks more suppressed through at least mid-January as the potential storm in the 8th-10th timeframe weakens the SE ridge...although lake effect belts would likely do quite well. The Euro ensembles don't look great on the mean in the 10-15 day period for a big synoptic storm north of the Ohio River, however the exact orientation of the West Coast ridge will have to be watched. A more robust ridge could allow shortwaves to dive into the Plains far enough west to potentially threaten the southeastern half of the subforum as the sub-tropical jet finally looks more active, meaning the pieces could be in place for a phase. The PV over Hudson Bay would likely limit how far northwest any storm could track and I'd probably lean towards a somewhat flatter ridge like the Euro ensembles, but I don't want to say it's totally hopeless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Good post man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 Good post man Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 GFS has what looks like an over running event along the I-80 corridor right now - late next week. Then on the 10th an actual storm coming out of the southern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I don't even know what we are debating. The GFS has at least 1 or 2 hits in the medium range for the subforum, with LES to follow. It's a good pattern for everyone but people who should be renting a condo in Miami next to the Golden Girls.My point was to the map Buffalo posted, I know the GFS has a potential about 10 days out but I don't want to grasp onto day 10 potentials because they can fizzle out especially in a long wave pattern shift like we are going to see. The potential is there that things could come together as OHWeather noted but between now and then there isn't much and beyond then there is a hostile pattern so I am keeping my optimism in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Adding to the 8-10th time frame.The cold signal of the WPO is nearing the neutral region and forecasted negative just a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Now that the mega torch is safely behind us time to get some snow! Nice to see all the winter air, need to lay down some snowcover up here and give the OV their first measurable snow of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Now that the mega torch is safely behind us time to get some snow! Nice to see all the winter air, need to lay down some snowcover up here and give the OV their first measurable snow of the season. I wouldn't say it's behind us yet. We might get a stretch of upper 30s to near 40 late next week. It's not a mega torch but it's probably going to AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I agree with the first bit, but you can see there's a sharp temp gradient just northwest of Cincinnati... even more so when you get to the Ohio/Mississippi river confluence. So it may be 32 degrees here, but temps in the teens isn't far away. Plus, Ohioians are the eastern minority on this subforum... most of the subforum is seeing "good lord" cold... especially compared to what December has been like. It's like jumping into a "cold" pool on a torching July day... shrinkage and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 A couple things: 1. There's always a lag between the trend in teleconnections and model output. So the fact that the models don't show a "classic -NAO" now (I'm not sure exactly what that is) should only be taken with a grain of salt at this point. 2. In a +PNA regime with the uber-progressive northern stream flow we've been perpetually stuck with, the models are notorious for ejecting shortwaves out of the SW region too fast at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Worst medium range in years. Totally boring with nothing of interest for anyone. Just brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Worst medium range in years. Totally boring with nothing of interest for anyone. Just brutal. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Worst medium range in years. Totally boring with nothing of interest for anyone. Just brutal. I think as that western ridge amplifies, we can see some good-ratio clippers. They may not be modeled yet, but give it time. They normally pop up between days 5-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 dan123 for weenie of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Worst medium range in years. Totally boring with nothing of interest for anyone. Just brutal. when we can't even get a few fantasy inches on a 384hr January GFS run, we are in uncharted zzzzzzland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I have to think there's a window for a storm that isn't suppressed in the sub-forum in the January 8-10 timeframe. The PNA will be going positive, the EPO and AO negative, however despite the higher heights over Greenland I wouldn't call this a classic -NAO, and with such a fairly robust trough coming out of the Southwest I could see a storm that intensifies and tracks into the Ohio Valley or even the southern Great Lakes if there's enough northern stream interaction. That trough over the Southwest could very well try to temporarily pump up a SE ridge. Beyond this timeframe the overall pattern looks more suppressed through at least mid-January as the potential storm in the 8th-10th timeframe weakens the SE ridge...although lake effect belts would likely do quite well. The Euro ensembles don't look great on the mean in the 10-15 day period for a big synoptic storm north of the Ohio River, however the exact orientation of the West Coast ridge will have to be watched. A more robust ridge could allow shortwaves to dive into the Plains far enough west to potentially threaten the southeastern half of the subforum as the sub-tropical jet finally looks more active, meaning the pieces could be in place for a phase. The PV over Hudson Bay would likely limit how far northwest any storm could track and I'd probably lean towards a somewhat flatter ridge like the Euro ensembles, but I don't want to say it's totally hopeless. The voice of reason. I'm not terribly concerned about an uber suppressed pattern yet. We could actually use some suppression, relatively speaking, to stop everything from cutting too far west like what happened before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 The voice of reason. I'm not terribly concerned about an uber suppressed pattern yet. We could actually use some suppression, relatively speaking, to stop everything from cutting too far west like what happened before. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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