Jonger Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Gotcha, and this is why there is little cheer and praise for the upcoming pattern. Yea, but your worry is different than mine. If we get a NW wind, winter sports are open for business in Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 wow, let's see if this actually translates into something good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 disaster you're reading it upside down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 wow, let's see if this actually translates into something good for us. Bad feeling that we go real dry in LR. Same old warm & wet then cold & dry pattern. I love when people talk about how if all this rain was snow BS. Newsflash it's not & it would never be as much precipitation in a colder scenario. Ok, I know this rant belongs in a different thread. I digress..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Bad feeling that we go real dry in LR. Same old warm & wet then cold & dry pattern. I love when people talk about how if all this rain was snow BS. Newsflash it's not & it would never be as much precipitation in a colder scenario. Ok, I know this rant belongs in a different thread. I digress..... definitely a possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 cold w/o snow is like drinking O'Doul's. Perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 NAO follows the AO, but a little later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 NAO follows the AO, but a little later... I sure as heck hope not.. ugh Neutral fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 I sure as heck hope not.. ugh Neutral fine. I'm not sold on a negative NAO yet...probably more neutral which might be better for our sub as a whole, (although being further east I'd prefer a tad negative but neutral is workable). The AO on the other hand looks like it's very likely to head into negative territory. I guess the question becomes how will all this translate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Models have really backed off on the extent/duration of the cold later this week and this weekend. In fact, they return us back to above average temps by next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 I'm not sold on a negative NAO yet...probably more neutral which might be better for our sub as a whole, (although being further east I'd prefer a tad negative but neutral is workable). The AO on the other hand looks like it's very likely to head into negative territory. I guess the question becomes how will all this translate. Even a neutral NAO will do nothing for us with the strongly +PNA. Now if I were in Boston, I'd be jumping up for joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 you're reading it upside down He is taking over for Tropical. His mission is to grow palms outside his apartment in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Models have really backed off on the extent/duration of the cold later this week and this weekend. In fact, they return us back to above average temps by next week. A little unnerving to see the euro bring back upper 40's to near 60 to the OV and parts of the sub on day 9 and a rain event day 10. Especially with all indices lining up in almost perfect fashion for cold. Not just the euro, but the ggem looks equally as bad, if not worse. Is it just a matter of being patient with a torturously slow step down, or is this going to be a Lucy holding the football pattern change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 The pattern around mid month looks much better than the next 10 days show. With the AO going negative, the NAO going slightly negative, and PNA remaining positive the cold shouldn't be an issue around mid month. With wide open lakes with record setting temperatures anything is possible! Euro Ensembles: GFS Ensembles: The dream set-up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 The pattern around mid month looks much better than the next 10 days show. With the AO going negative, the NAO going slightly negative, and PNA remaining positive the cold shouldn't be an issue around mid month. With wide open lakes with record setting temperatures anything is possible! Euro Ensembles: GFS Ensembles: The dream set-up? Wouldn't we want at least some semblance of a southeast ridge....otherwise this is a KY to midatlantic dream set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 The lakes will turn on, but anyone away from the lakes is going to get next to nothing. Cold and dry boredom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Wouldn't we want at least some semblance of a southeast ridge....otherwise this is a KY to midatlantic dream set up. Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Well the entire forum is below normal snowfall aside from northwest Chicago and Wisconsin. Give us the cold air and worry about the details later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 The lakes will turn on, but anyone away from the lakes is going to get next to nothing. Cold and dry boredom. At least we can run into one with cold temps in place, instead of the low shooting up to our west and having a repeat of the last two systems. We have 9 months of guaranteed above freezing temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Well the entire forum is below normal snowfall aside from northwest Chicago and Wisconsin. Give us the cold air and worry about the details later. Yeah, I can't imagine worrying about anything after the last 6 weeks. The eastern side of North American winter sports industry has probably lost billions already. We have resorts begging for cash on gofundme. http://www.saultthisweek.com/2015/12/21/an-appeal-from-searchmont-resort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 I would be depressed about this upcoming pattern if I didn't luck out with this last storm. One storm can change one's outlook on the weather pattern quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 12Z and 18Z have been hinting at a nice winter storm for Southern MI in Mid-January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 At least we can run into one with cold temps in place, instead of the low shooting up to our west and having a repeat of the last two systems. We have 9 months of guaranteed above freezing temps. The problem is, that pattern isn't conducive for "running into one" it is a very suppressed look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 I would be depressed about this upcoming pattern if I didn't luck out with this last storm. One storm can change one's outlook on the weather pattern quickly. I'm surprised anyone's surprised/caught off guard that the models have backed off on the cold for the first 10 days of January. They're usually too quick to jump on board the cold train. Most people expected the true flip to happen in mid-January. The usual suspects (such as JB) got too excited and let their excitement get in the way of forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wttnwx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Well the entire forum is below normal snowfall aside from northwest Chicago and Wisconsin. Give us the cold air and worry about the details later.Milwaukee is actually above normal. 16.5" current through today, 12.4" normal through today. The storm in Nov, and yesterday accounted for all but .4 of it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 The problem is, that pattern isn't conducive for "running into one" it is a very suppressed look. No it isn't huh? I'm actually optimistic for something in the sub forum around mid month give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 No it isn't huh? I'm actually optimistic for something in the sub forum around mid month give or take. +PNA/-AO/-NAO/-EPO and a strong subtropical jet = suppressed especially with the magnitude the AO goes negative potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Those are just numbers and letters. How it translates downstream may not quite match up. Frankly, I see a neutral EPO/NAO/AO in terms of results. All the teleconnections he listed, combined, strongly implies an overbearing eastern trough. I'd be interested to see a case where we had a +PNA, -EPO, -AO, and -NAO where that isn't the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 A little unnerving to see the euro bring back upper 40's to near 60 to the OV and parts of the sub on day 9 and a rain event day 10. Especially with all indices lining up in almost perfect fashion for cold. Not just the euro, but the ggem looks equally as bad, if not worse. Is it just a matter of being patient with a torturously slow step down, or is this going to be a Lucy holding the football pattern change? I've been looking at that timeframe also. I makes no sense, luckily the ensembles don't look as mild. Not even touching the EURO, based off its crappy performance handling that storm! Good lord, the CMC looks cold 9 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.