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Winter 2015-16 Medium-Long Range Discussion


OHweather

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I would actually love that. Anything wintry at this point is a god send.

 

cold sucks without events to track.   The upcoming (undeniable) pattern change that is unfolding looks to be dry at first but may evolve into stormy with a split flow and juiced up southern stream.  This may favor areas further south and east in the forum, and possibly too far south and east for even us.    Hopefully that doesn't happen, going from torch,  to cold and dry, to storms missing to the south. :arrowhead:.   Although who knows, maybe we can get into a pattern more like...feb '10...  :weenie:

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The biggest unknown to me is what going to happen 20-30 days out ? Does the pacific cold fizzle away only to bring back the torch or is the north going to unleash some fresh cold air?  As of now, I'm becoming more confident in the pattern that this could be the real deal. Time will tell..

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cold sucks without events to track.   The upcoming (undeniable) pattern change that is unfolding looks to be dry at first but may evolve into stormy with a split flow and juiced up southern stream.  This may favor areas further south and east in the forum, and possibly too far south and east for even us.    Hopefully that doesn't happen, going from torch,  to cold and dry, to storms missing to the south. :arrowhead:.   Although who knows, maybe we can get into a pattern more like...feb '10...  :weenie:

 

If that scenario happens, Central and Southern Ohio and Southern Indiana could cash in while leaving the rest of the subforum high and dry. Could be a matter of the rest of us on the outside looking in at you guys instead of the other way around.

 

I'll have to look up Feb '10. This old mind isn't as sharp as it once was.

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cold sucks without events to track.   The upcoming (undeniable) pattern change that is unfolding looks to be dry at first but may evolve into stormy with a split flow and juiced up southern stream.  This may favor areas further south and east in the forum, and possibly too far south and east for even us.    Hopefully that doesn't happen, going from torch,  to cold and dry, to storms missing to the south. :arrowhead:.   Although who knows, maybe we can get into a pattern more like...feb '10...  :weenie:

 

Depends on your weather interests. There are millions of winter sports fans on the eastern side of the country that will be "doing their thing" with the coming pattern.

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If that scenario happens, Central and Southern Ohio and Southern Indiana could cash in while leaving the rest of the subforum high and dry. Could be a matter of the rest of us on the outside looking in at you guys instead of the other way around.

I'll have to look up Feb '10. This old mind isn't as sharp as it once was.

If my memory serves Feb 2010 was great up here and even better in central OH
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If that scenario happens, Central and Southern Ohio and Southern Indiana could cash in while leaving the rest of the subforum high and dry. Could be a matter of the rest of us on the outside looking in at you guys instead of the other way around.

 

I'll have to look up Feb '10. This old mind isn't as sharp as it once was.

 

that was the snowmageddon period for the DC area, but we cashed in as well, and so did places further north.  

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that was the snowmageddon period for the DC area, but we cashed in as well, and so did places further north.  

 

3 events in about 12 days followed by an end of the month long term light snow event from a rare retrograding system from New England.  One of the all-time best winter months in what was, until 2013-2014, tied for the 2nd snowiest winter on record.

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Uh oh....CFS v.2 got the memo that winter is coming....LMBO:

CFSv2.NaT2m.20151227.201601.gif

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201601.gif

CFSv2.z700.20151227.201601.gif

Question is....will all the warm weenies who've tortured winter weather lovers with CFS image keep posting & tweeting them now. :) :) :) :) :)

Looks normal to slightly above normal for most of us with a bad 500mb pattern. Not exactly something to be excited about unless you like O'Douls.
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Looks normal to slightly above normal for most of us with a bad 500mb pattern. Not exactly something to be excited about unless you like O'Douls.

 

exactly....i get what he was getting at, but there are more positive LR indicators then breaking out a slightly better cf2 map and laughing at the warministas.

 

Here's the latest Jan/Feb anyways

post-622-0-63835500-1451244282_thumb.jpg

post-622-0-26356700-1451244292_thumb.jpg

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exactly....i get what he was getting at, but there are more positive LR indicators then breaking out a slightly better cf2 map and laughing at the warministas.

Here's the latest Jan/Feb anyways

Yeah trolling warministas with slightly above normal maps doesn't really make a bit of sense.
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exactly....i get what he was getting at, but there are more positive LR indicators then breaking out a slightly better cf2 map and laughing at the warministas.

 

Here's the latest Jan/Feb anyways

Those are dailies, not monthlies. The monthlies update daily but thats a different product you posted. What you posted has wild swings from run to run. However the monthlies do not, which is one reason why the drastic change is very unusual & should be noted.

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When it's a step in the right direction & not blowtorch I disagree. That's as big of a shift I've seen in a CFS monthly...maybe ever this late especially.

Still above normal up this way and a bad storm pattern anyways, so why should most of the subforum get excited about cooler boredom?
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When it's a step in the right direction & not blowtorch I disagree. That's as big of a shift I've seen in a CFS monthly...maybe ever this late especially.

That's what I figured you were getting at. Not the actual depiction of what the cfs shows, rather it's drastic change, as it has all along been by far the torchiest model and the go to for anyone looking for a torchtastic entire winter.
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That's what I figured you were getting at. Not the actual depiction of what the cfs shows, rather it's drastic change, as it has all along been by far the torchiest model and the go to for anyone looking for a torchtastic entire winter.

 

Middle of January looks warm. Not like what we have been seeing, but not mid winter type stuff. There is a brief cool down and right back to above normal.

 

814temp.new.gif

gfs-ens_z500a_us_45.png

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11.png

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29-37 for highs with mostly cloudy skies and scattered snow showers that may dust the ground at times = fun. j/k.

Only positives the ski resorts will be able to make snow and kids may end up eventually ice skating on ponds

 

agree.  For our climo here in central Ohio, normal is great in the warm months, and blows big time in the winter.  I don't believe we ever drop below freezing for a normal high in the winter,  I think the lowest we go for normal high is like 34 or 36.

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Middle of January looks warm. Not like what we have been seeing, but not mid winter type stuff. There is a brief cool down and right back to above normal.

814temp.new.gif

gfs-ens_z500a_us_45.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11.png

The reality of never obtaining sustained normal to slightly below temps this winter is legit. Even if Jan is only +2 - +3 above normal it still translates to a torching winter. This sucks but whatcha gonna do. We are somewhat long overdue for a clunker.

Reading tweets by JB about a very warm AMJ does not help either. Lol

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29-37 for highs with mostly cloudy skies and scattered snow showers that may dust the ground at times = fun. j/k.

Only positives the ski resorts will be able to make snow and kids may end up eventually ice skating on ponds

 

The UP will have snow with +1 to +5 departures. The UP is snowless with +10 to +15 departures.

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The reality of never obtaining sustained normal to slightly below temps this winter is legit. Even if Jan is only +2 - +3 above normal it still translates to a torching winter. This sucks but whatcha gonna do. We are somewhat long overdue for a clunker.

 

Life with an average Jan 15th high temp within 3 degrees of 32.

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We can only hope that this Jan 15 is +3 of normal.

 

I meant that SE Michigan has a Jan 15th (peak of winter) average high near 32F in the peak of winter. It doesn't take much to be snowless when we ride so close to the freezing line for high temps. SE Michigan doesn't have much wiggle room in winter to be snowless.

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I meant that SE Michigan has a Jan 15th (peak of winter) average high near 32F in the peak of winter. It doesn't take much to be snowless when we ride so close to the freezing line for high temps. SE Michigan doesn't have much wiggle room in winter to be snowless.

Gotcha, and this is why there is little cheer and praise for the upcoming pattern.

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