Winter 2015-16 Medium-Long Range Discussion

[buckeye]

More like a colder pattern but trending dry/suppressed. A kiddie cocktail version of most of the pattern for much of the last two winters.

 

euro ens says we (most of subforum), go below normal days 7 thru 11 and then at the end of the run, back above.   Like you mention however, the prospects for a thread the needle event during the cold snap look pretty dim.   Ensembles pretty dry through that time frame.

[Hoosier]

Been an active regime (unfortunately on the wrong side too many times).  Not really realistic to expect it to continue unabated.

[BuffaloWeather]

If GFS is true the lakes are going to be dumping the first week of January.

 

[Geos]

If GFS is true the lakes are going to be dumping the first week of January.

 

 

Jonger will like that.

 

Negative heights get scoured out of the polar regions pretty much by the 31st.

 

 

Big West Coast/western Canada ridge down the road.

 

 

Stepping down.

 

 

[Geos]

Strong slug off warming in the stratosphere heading poleward from eastern Asia.

 

[michsnowfreak]

Looks like the cold is coming....hoping it brings some synoptic snow with it!

[wisconsinwx]

A switch to a +PNA regime when the cold air finally starts to unleash is not normally a good thing for GLOV posters outside the LE belts.

[Geos]

A switch to a +PNA regime when the cold air finally starts to unleash is not normally a good thing for GLOV posters outside the LE belts.

 

Yeah we don't need cold and dry now. Might get into a clipper pattern though. I guess if you're looking to boost your seasonal snow tally a little bit at a time, but consistently, its good for that.

[Stebo]

Yeah if it's going to get cold a +PNA would be the worst thing for this region unless you live in like Kentucky.

[Geos]

PNA heading straight up starting tomorrow - probably

 

[Geos]

18z GFS has a nice Greenland block that starts to form around the 5th and just gets stronger from there.

 

 

[buckeye]

Hmmmmm,  

Merry Christmas everyone

[Harry]

Hmmmmm,  

Merry Christmas everyone

 

 

Problem for areas to your west/nw is the +PNA.. That usually puts the screws to us as everything is forced se. You should *hopefully* be fine.

 

Need to lose that +PNA. Neutral PNA/NAO and -EPO is what is preferred. I'll take a boring warm pattern over cold and dry..

 

It all may still change ofcourse. We'll see.

[michsnowfreak]

Problem for areas to your west/nw is the +PNA.. That usually puts the screws to us as everything is forced se. You should *hopefully* be fine.

Need to lose that +PNA. Neutral PNA/NAO and -EPO is what is preferred. I'll take a boring warm pattern over cold and dry..

It all may still change ofcourse. We'll see.

Cold and dry would likely at least give some snow. NOT a preferred pattern but Anythimgs better than Warm and boring for me.

[Northern_IN_Wx]

midwestern weather so boring overall. Lak effect is pretty cool though.

[ClicheVortex2014]

midwestern weather so boring overall. Lak effect is pretty cool though.

 our weather is boring? Look at the west US. We get sun, rain, snow, clouds, hail, wind, tornadoes, blizzards (sometimes all in the same day )... they get sun, rain, and clouds. 

 

I'd die if I lived on the west coast. Even the east coast would bore the hell out of me.

[michsnowfreak]

our weather is boring? Look at the west US. We get sun, rain, snow, clouds, hail, wind, tornadoes, blizzards (sometimes all in the same day )... they get sun, rain, and clouds.

I'd die if I lived on the west coast. Even the east coast would bore the hell out of me.

I agree. The midwest probably has the least amount of periods of "quiet, "boring" weather" in the country.

[Jonger]

midwestern weather so boring overall. Lak effect is pretty cool though.

 

Great Lake states are similar to mountain climo during the winter. You have the lack of consistent snow well inland (valley weather) or the deep reliable snow found up in the high terrain ( lake belt ). I know it sucks for snow hounds outside the belt who want snow in their backyard, but at least we have the micro-climates to play in if you have winter sport hobbies. 

[michsnowfreak]

Great Lake states are similar to mountain climo during the winter. You have the lack of consistent snow well inland (valley weather) or the deep reliable snow found up in the high terrain ( lake belt ). I know it sucks for snow hounds outside the belt who want snow in their backyard, but at least we have the micro-climates to play in if you have winter sport hobbies.

I agree about the micro climates, but our climate is very different from mountain climo. The west coast is known for quiet weather, the east coast big storms...but for overall "unsettled" weather the midwest would have to win that one it would seem.

[Jonger]

Not to further stray off topic, but on the subject... Was talking to some of the locals here on Oahu and they were telling me of how mainlanders come here and get "rock fever" after about 6 months in part because of the almost complete lack of discernible seasons. Said it's tough to make friends with mainlanders who move here because it's almost inevitable they will be throwing them a going away party in less than a year. Also contributes to the "island time" effect, where time seems to pass much more slowly here, partially because of the laid back culture, but partially because, once again, lack of seasons makes it hard to notice the passage of time like we do.

 

The predominate mainlanders who stay are generally hippie types. I have known a particular transplant to Hawaii since birth, she is a mega hippie type, she has been living there for over a decade. An endless stream of hippie types I see with her on Facebook.

[michsnowfreak]

Not to further stray off topic, but on the subject... Was talking to some of the locals here on Oahu and they were telling me of how mainlanders come here and get "rock fever" after about 6 months in part because of the almost complete lack of discernible seasons. Said it's tough to make friends with mainlanders who move here because it's almost inevitable they will be throwing them a going away party in less than a year. Also contributes to the "island time" effect, where time seems to pass much more slowly here, partially because of the laid back culture, but partially because, once again, lack of seasons makes it hard to notice the passage of time like we do.

My sister moved there for 3 months in 2012 (was supposed to be 6 months).  She couldnt stop talking about how she would be having a whole winter of tropical bliss (she moved in Oct) and by Jan she was texting me that she couldnt WAIT to come home and see snow

[DAFF]

Never have given the Island solitude much thought before this. I love the variety of weather in this region and the lakes. If I could change one thing it would be to live closer to a LES belt.

 

Long term forecast looks closer to normal in temperatures. Some stars are aligning but not all of them for the perfect winter one two punch.

[Geos]

I agree about the micro climates, but our climate is very different from mountain climo. The west coast is known for quiet weather, the east coast big storms...but for overall "unsettled" weather the midwest would have to win that one it would seem.

 

Pacific Northwest Coast is far from quiet during the autumn and winter. Some of the strongest low pressure to traverse the lower 48 end up onshore there. Now they lack snow on the coast, but travel a short distance into the Cascades and they get some of the heaviest snowfall totals in the world. From Eureka, CA on south is really boring - unless you have a classic el Niño going.

 

Colorado Rockies have a big variety of weather, just minus the widespread severe weather. Midwest weather has the most variability out of any other region by far, except maybe up along the front range in Montana. They get some wacky weather up there.

[BuffaloWeather]

It's coming.

 

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...OUR LONG RUN OF RECORD WARMTH IS
ABOUT TO COME TO AN END WITH IMPORTANT CHANGES STARTING TO TAKE
SHAPE IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.
SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK WITH SOME SNOW OPPORTUNITIES
HERE IN WESTERN NY. THIS WILL INITIALLY BE DELIVERED BY LOCAL...
RATHER SMALL SCALE CHANGES TO THE FLOW PATTERN DRIVEN BY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEMS.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST FEW WEEKS OF JANUARY...THE LONGWAVE
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO ADJUST. THE PNA INDEX WILL FLIP
TO POSITIVE...WHICH WILL ALLOW A RIDGE TO BEGIN TO BUILD ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND FORCE A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MEAN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...DIRECTING MORE COLD AIR INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/
WHICH HAS BEEN FAVORING VERY WARM TEMPS IN THE EASTERN US THIS
MONTH...WILL BEGIN TO ORBIT TOWARDS A MORE FAVORABLE PHASE FOR
COLD IN THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY.

LASTLY...THE VERY STRONG STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX IS NOW UNDER
PRESSURE FROM UPWARD PROPAGATING ROSSBY WAVES...WHICH ARE FORECAST
TO WEAKEN THE POLAR VORTEX AND CAUSE AT LEAST SOME STRATOSPHERIC
WARMING OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS. IT IS UNCLEAR YET WHETHER
THIS WILL BE A FULL FLEDGED SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT...
BUT THE WEAKER STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING TO DEVELOP AS WE GO THROUGH THE FIRST FEW
WEEKS OF JANUARY...WHICH SUPPORTS COLD INTRUSIONS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT A NOTABLE TURN TOWARDS MORE
TYPICAL COLD AND SNOW AS WE HEAD INTO JANUARY.

[Geos]

Good to start reading AFD's like that again.

 

Latest stratospheric maps for 100, 50, 30, and 10 hPa.

 

 

 

 

[nwohweather]

Yeah I would venture to say we have one of the most diverse climates in the world. You have hot and humid Summer's where the temp regularly hits 85+ and then winters where 40" on average falls with multiple severe weather outbreaks in between. And if you go over to the Plains it even gets crazier than here in Toledo

[michsnowfreak]

Winter looks to be setting up shop by new years. All this talk of a more sustained colder pattern setting in in mid to late January (with some already ready to punt all of Jan), & rather it looks to set in at the beginning of January. Snow will naturally come as well, but hopefully we can muster up a few good storms.

[buckeye]

Winter looks to be setting up shop by new years. All this talk of a more sustained colder pattern setting in in mid to late January (with some already ready to punt all of Jan), & rather it looks to set in at the beginning of January. Snow will naturally come as well, but hopefully we can muster up a few good storms.

 

I was never ready to punt January...in terms of believing the December torch would continue unabated.  That was pretty much a given it would get colder.   But punting in terms of having another zzzzzzzz month with little wintry weather, outside some seasonable temps, is still on the table, (not saying I believe that will happen).

 

Flipped thru the 15 day euro ens and for the forum, outside of northern MI and the northern 2/3rd of WI, there is virtually no appreciable snow for the entire period.    Temps do get to seasonable levels but by day 15 start to crack to slightly above normal again.    The long range gfs also shows a snow drought.   If it's a choice between seasonable temps and dry....I'd take torch every single time.

 

As a snow weenie, my hope is the models are not completely catching up with the changes we are seeing in the long range indices....we shall see

[michsnowfreak]

I was never ready to punt January...in terms of believing the December torch would continue unabated. That was pretty much a given it would get colder. But punting in terms of having another zzzzzzzz month with little wintry weather, outside some seasonable temps, is still on the table, (not saying I believe that will happen).

Flipped thru the 15 day euro ens and for the forum, outside of northern MI and the northern 2/3rd of WI, there is virtually no appreciable snow for the entire period. Temps do get to seasonable levels but by day 15 start to crack to slightly above normal again. The long range gfs also shows a snow drought. If it's a choice between seasonable temps and dry....I'd take torch every single time.

As a snow weenie, my hope is the models are not completely catching up with the changes we are seeing in the long range indices....we shall see

As for temps...reading the ne forum, it appears signs for the colder pattern for some time are good. Brief relaxation of course at times (ie mid Jan?) but good riddance to torch.

As for precip...I NEVER use LR for precip. I have seen time and time again storms disappear and likewise others come out of nowhere. If all else fails I know in a winter pattern this region is at least good for small disturbances bringing snow. Don't get me wrong, cold and dry is very plausible (especially in nino) but I will take my chances, especially with warm lakes, over a warm pattern.

[Northern_IN_Wx]

I agree. The midwest probably has the least amount of periods of "quiet, "boring" weather" in the country.

Great Lake states are similar to mountain climo during the winter. You have the lack of consistent snow well inland (valley weather) or the deep reliable snow found up in the high terrain ( lake belt ). I know it sucks for snow hounds outside the belt who want snow in their backyard, but at least we have the micro-climates to play in if you have winter sport hobbies.

 our weather is boring? Look at the west US. We get sun, rain, snow, clouds, hail, wind, tornadoes, blizzards (sometimes all in the same day )... they get sun, rain, and clouds. 

 

I'd die if I lived on the west coast. Even the east coast would bore the hell out of me.

Hmm maybe our climates are different. I do get plenty sun, rain, wind, and clouds. Maybe some find these exciting. Tornadoes and blizzards are extremely rare in northern Indiana. So the lack of extreme wx makes it is overall boring to me but I'm glad you and michsnowoptimist enjoy it. Just an opinion.