RCNYILWX Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Check out the ensemble means when you check out the OP runs. It's clearly a better pattern going forward. Going to the UP in late Feb, hoping for lots of snowpack. Agreed the 500 mb height anomalies look much better on the ensembles day 10 and beyond. Hopefully for winter interests in the region, the change can get within day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 This is the first time in seemingly forever both the gfs and gem ENSEMBLES are showing colder than normal temps in the long range. Just get me out of this torch pattern and I'll take my chances, whatever side of normal temps are. I see the improvements as well closer to New Years. Need to get the change in the 500 mb pattern in 7 days or less. Ridge goes up along the West Coast and a deep Aleutian Low on day 10 on the EURO ensembles. Getting close about day 9. Scandinavia Ridge... Ridging building along the west coast on the GFS ensembles also. Been watching the stratospheric conditions and have been seeing at least a dislodgment of the PV. http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html EURO model seems to be doing that around the 30th. Seasonal to slightly above normal temps are fine. A lot more potential for wintry weather, especially when your talking with respect to January temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Might tag along with a Rocky Mountain group in Feb and forget the midwest this winter if it keeps up.[/quote A group of us are heading to Albany WY in January . There's over 50" up top with more on the way for the next week and beyond. We trailer out, it's not a bad drive really. There's a fair amount of groomed trails if that's what your into. We use the trails to get to and from the lodge and to different play areas. You should check it out when you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The 12z GEM even more impressive with a 23mb drop in 24hrs Sunday into Monday. Both models deliver the goods to the MSP area. With this type of pattern you'd think it's only a matter of time before the MSP peeps get maylayed. We've seen this several times already this season. This pattern should be a goldmine for us. Hopefully we cash in this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Looking at the day 7 stratospheric maps, you can spot the damage starting at it in the lower levels. First by taking out the circular structure and creating lobes. Warming also taking place from up top too. Day 8, 9, and 10 it just deteriorates more and more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I hope it trends cooler. Some mood flakes on Christmas eve would be nice for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Looking at the day 7 stratospheric maps, you can spot the damage starting at it in the lower levels. First by taking out the circular structure and creating lobes. Warming also taking place from up top too. stratosphere_day7_122115.png Day 8, 9, and 10 it just deteriorates more and more. Probably ties into the euro ensembles and some of the other models taking the mjo into the better phases. Nice disco here about PV/AO.. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation I wouldn't jump just yet though. Give it a few days to see if this is all legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Probably ties into the euro ensembles and some of the other models taking the mjo into the better phases. Nice disco here about PV/AO.. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation I wouldn't jump just yet though. Give it a few days to see if this is all legit. Yeah I read the AER site also. Some promise in the MJO. Just need it to gain a little amplitude and not lollygag through 6 too long especially. Encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Might tag along with a Rocky Mountain group in Feb and forget the midwest this winter if it keeps up.[/quote A group of us are heading to Albany WY in January . There's over 50" up top with more on the way for the next week and beyond. We trailer out, it's not a bad drive really. There's a fair amount of groomed trails if that's what your into. We use the trails to get to and from the lodge and to different play areas. You should check it out when you can. Ah, the Snowies. Been wanting to head out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 GEFS increasing the strength of the Scandinavian Ridge towards the operational. Ridge hooks over the top right after New Years. Stratospheric warming looks to be on track still - on the EURO. PV in the lowest levels gets knocked all the way to southern Greenland and Baffin Island early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 looks like there's a pretty decent consensus that a cool down to seasonable or slightly below occurs days 11-14(ish). The question is does it happen, does it have staying power, and do we also get some juice involved. I'm encouraged by the indices which are looking better, (mjo, ao), but the euro ens does show the trough already lifting by day 15. Still looks like one of the most 'promising', (use that word lightly), windows of the winter so far. And yes, this is Buckeye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 The gfs has been it's usually bipolar self, but ensembles remain firm. One more week of torch hell then changes arise. Seasonably mild would even be most welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 The gfs has been it's usually bipolar self, but ensembles remain firm. One more week of torch hell then changes arise. Seasonably mild would even be most welcome. Seasonable feels crazy cold, as experienced this past weekend. 55 and pouring rain as I type this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 The gfs has been it's usually bipolar self, but ensembles remain firm. One more week of torch hell then changes arise. Seasonably mild would even be most welcome. now that most models are showing this cool down in the 10 day + range, it will be a good test to see if we can trust pattern change signals this winter or if the models are going to football and charlie brown us all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Seasonable feels crazy cold, as experienced this past weekend. 55 and pouring rain as I type this. It felt cold but I enjoyed it of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 now that most models are showing this cool down in the 10 day + range, it will be a good test to see if we can trust pattern change signals this winter or if the models are going to football and charlie brown us all winter. Models tend to rush large pattern changes, but the line must be drawn somewhere. Where we are at and where we are going in mid-Jan is going to be a big signal for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Models tend to rush large pattern changes, but the line must be drawn somewhere. Where we are at and where we are going in mid-Jan is going to be a big signal for me. agree. As far as I'm concerned, if we are still looking for a 10+ day pattern change in mid Jan, then the fat lady is warming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 agree. As far as I'm concerned, if we are still looking for a 10+ day pattern change in mid Jan, then the fat lady is warming up. With a very active pattern already showing itself, and heading deeper into winter (the beginning of the "dead" of winter is still a month away), I have no doubt snowstorms will come. We have literally 4 more months of measurable snow potential up here. However, with strong Ninos already being bad for snowcover, I would not be surprised if this is one of those rare winters of above normal snowfall but below normal snowcover. This is NOT me calling for above normal snow, Im just saying I see a greater potential for this combination than during most years. For DTW, climo is 42.5" of snowfall and 50 days of 1"+ snowcover. 2014-15 had 47.5" snowfall but 75 days 1"+ snowcover 2013-14 had 94.9" snowfall but 96 days 1"+ snowcover To say we are due for a low snowcover winter is an understatement. The list of winters that saw below normal snowcover (3 days or more deficit) AND above normal snowfall (2"+) is a very small list. 1926-27: 47.5", 36 days 1972-73: 45.0", 38 days 1986-87: 49.7", 36 days 1987-88: 45.1", 42 days 1998-99: 49.5", 41 days It is much more common here to have above normal snowcover comined with normal or below normal snowfall than it is to have below normal snowcover combined with above normal snowfall. in the young stages of this torch start to winter 2015-16, DTW is at 6.9" snowfall, 4 days 1"+ snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Pretty awesome video from Binghamton, NY NWS about the upcoming pattern change. https://www.facebook.com/NWSBinghamton/videos/1035431629852814/?theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I'm not sold on the cold coming. The signs of change are 50/50 in MJO, AO the WPO which is sitting at +100 which is a bad indicator of cold. I could see a brief cooling pattern followed by the warmth in time for a January thaw.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Looks like a pretty cold New Years Eve at this distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Cold NW flow after New Year it looks like. Holds tough through 384 Heights rise on the pole later. Not the greatest, but a step in the right direction I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 i think you forgot what cold NW flow looks like that's modified pac air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The long range GFS doesn't even remotely have a "pattern change". It's wall to wall garbage. I'm watching the 29th system for a thread the needle day after chase, might provide a days worth of fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The long range GFS doesn't even remotely have a "pattern change". It's wall to wall garbage. I'm watching the 29th system for a thread the needle day after chase, might provide a days worth of fun. It's definitely a pattern change. It doesn't mean it will be cold here but it certainly looks a lot different than what we've had recently with the huge trough in the west and gigantic ridge in the east. The upcoming pattern resembles more of an El Nino look with the big ridge to the north and the STJ starting to cut underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 It's definitely a pattern change. It doesn't mean it will be cold here but it certainly looks a lot different than what we've had recently with the huge trough in the west and gigantic ridge in the east. The upcoming pattern resembles more of an El Nino look with the big ridge to the north and the STJ starting to cut underneath.Agree. Again. To what extent it verifies we don't know.But getting away from a pattern of 40s and 50s (with a Rogue 60+ like today) seems like almost a sure bet. Ensembles colder than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Scandinavian ridge attack the polar regions 6 days from now. Then a few days later it gets attacked again from the Russian side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 i think you forgot what cold NW flow looks like that's modified pac air I smell a Clipper train coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 More like a colder pattern but trending dry/suppressed. A kiddie cocktail version of most of the pattern for much of the last two winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 More like a colder pattern but trending dry/suppressed. A kiddie cocktail version of most of the pattern for much of the last two winters. Pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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