buckeye Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 wxbell (use with caution) says euro is actually trying to put down snow on the n/w flanks of the 9-10 day system. Pretty far south with the low too. I imagine it ends up further north and probably warmer, but it's the first possible thing to watch we've had for this part of the sub all winter. The big low sits there so there could be even more cold sector precip later.....but now we're extrapolating a wxbell map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 ... euro takes it to southern OH, meanwhile the GGEM tracks it into eastern IA.... gotta go wagons west on this one, sorry euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 ... euro takes it to southern OH, meanwhile the GGEM tracks it into eastern IA.... gotta go wagons west on this one, sorry euro If you remember, Euro was the only one showing HJ not making landfall on the east coast and it was right so I wouldn't discount this so easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 If you remember, Euro was the only one showing HJ not making landfall on the east coast and it was right so I wouldn't discount this so easily. True about the hurricane but I'm not sure that really matters. More important I think is that we're still well over a week out and this run of the ECMWF is well east of previous runs, so it's not like there's consistency within its solution yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 wxbell (use with caution) says euro is actually trying to put down snow on the n/w flanks of the 9-10 day system. Pretty far south with the low too. I imagine it ends up further north and probably warmer, but it's the first possible thing to watch we've had for this part of the sub all winter. The big low sits there so there could be even more cold sector precip later.....but now we're extrapolating a wxbell map This is similar to the 12z Euro parallel run yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 This is similar to the 12z Euro parallel run yesterday.The EPS control last night evolved the 500mb similar though didn't produce as much snow as this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 If you remember, Euro was the only one showing HJ not making landfall on the east coast and it was right so I wouldn't discount this so easily. if this produces snow for someone I'd almost consider it a fluke snow in that it's not a storm which evolved after a pattern change to colder but rather produced a fluke snow during a milder pattern, (much like the November storm). That's the best argument for hope from this one....fluke. Indices continue to suck in this time frame as well, (positve AO and NAO), so this one will be like Helen Keller threading a needle with mittens on. All that being said, it's the ONLY thing to watch...other than paint drying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Sorry if this discussion is too far out for the medium-long range... just lemme know and I can move it elsewhere -- Something to keep in mind when looking at the Stratosphere: ‘The Big Warm’ To Ease Off POTENTIAL RECORD WARMTH & STORMY - PATTERN ‘SHIFT’ FOR NEW YEAR Over the last few days, both the GFS, ECMWF and their respective ensembles have begun to forecast a pattern evolution/shift from the Pacific eastward into North America to begin by New Year's as a somewhat more ‘relaxed’ zonal-like (west-to-east) flow develops over the EPAC and then extends into the US, with a warmer, upper level ridge building into western Canada and the PAC NW. At the same time, upper level heights will fall to below normal levels across the southern most tier of states with above normal heights developing over the northernmost US and Canada during the first week in JAN. This pattern will result in below normal Temps over the southern US (though may not do much for the amazingly warm conditions in south Florida) and near to above normal Temps over the central and northern states . And while it is WAY TO SOON to know with high confidence, it's possible that another surge of very warm Temps could re-develop over the central and eastern US starting during the 2nd week in JAN as tropical forcing from the strong El Nino combined with an intensifying MJO impact the WX pattern at higher latitudes.****Finally, it’s worth noting that the very cold and strong polar vortex remains close to the North Pole, bottling up very cold air over the polar region, and none of the models show a change for at least 2-3 weeks – if at all. However, the ECMWF Ensembles do show strong warming in the stratosphere over the EPAC and nosing into the westernmost portions of North America during the first week in JAN. This MAY indicate a strong TROF formation in the west during JAN – lending additional support for another warm event developing during JAN in the East. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/the-big-warm-to-ease-off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Congrats to those lake belt folks who finally cashed in! Bo it looks like kewanee got raked! Waiting for a decent advisory criteria event, as of today my total stands at 1.5" and it looks to end the month that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Can't wait till Morch. People want a flip to cold/snowy so badly, but the way we've had such persistent patterns the last few years it makes me wonder how this will evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 If you remember, Euro was the only one showing HJ not making landfall on the east coast and it was right so I wouldn't discount this so easily. out of 51 ens members only like 5 or 6 show anything remotely similar to the OP run regarding snow with the day 9-10 storm. The vast majority show snow much further nw, and even then not very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Can't wait till Morch. People want a flip to cold/snowy so badly, but the way we've had such persistent patterns the last few years it makes me wonder how this will evolve. would LOVE a MORCH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 would LOVE a MORCH!As long as April doesn't have any significant cold blasts, otherwise that would be bad for the fruit industry, as much as I'd love another Morch too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 As long as April doesn't have any significant cold blasts, otherwise that would be bad for the fruit industry, as much as I'd love another Morch too. Is it possible in your view to even have an average (or above average) April temperature wise after a Morch since every time there has been an extremely warm March, April was below every time since record keeping started (that's what I read 3 years ago)? Everything seems to be hinged on equilibrium so is it feasible for the pattern to keep it up til say May or until its far enough in where frost shouldn't be a problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 wxbell (use with caution) says euro is actually trying to put down snow on the n/w flanks of the 9-10 day system. Pretty far south with the low too. I imagine it ends up further north and probably warmer, but it's the first possible thing to watch we've had for this part of the sub all winter. The big low sits there so there could be even more cold sector precip later.....but now we're extrapolating a wxbell map I definitely wouldn't write off the end of the month system for snowstorm potential. The models do a terrible job of handling those southern stream cut-off lows. GFS and GGEM are improved as well, though not as much as the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 As long as April doesn't have any significant cold blasts, otherwise that would be bad for the fruit industry, as much as I'd love another Morch too. I agree. It just seems like it's been forever since we had an early spring that locked and transitioned into a hot summer. Hate cold springs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 I agree. It just seems like it's been forever since we had an early spring that locked and transitioned into a hot summer. Hate cold springs. 2012 wasn't long ago (and 2010 before that), although it feels like it given the last 3 unimpressive Spring/Summer seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Congrats to those lake belt folks who finally cashed in! Bo it looks like kewanee got raked! Waiting for a decent advisory criteria event, as of today my total stands at 1.5" and it looks to end the month that way. went into the Keweenaw today and went as far to the tip as I could before the road turned into a path basically. As I traveled the Keweenaw, it was snowing lightly all the way from my house to there and I saw snow depths that ranged from 2-20". Most of the lakes in the northern UP have finally froze over. Lake Bailey between Copper Harbor and Eagle Harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 I'll pass on Morch... Especially since we just got robbed out of December. Torch April, spare March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 2012 wasn't long ago (and 2010 before that), although it feels like it given the last 3 unimpressive Spring/Summer seasons. The last 3 JJA months combined are just -1F. It hasn't been that far from normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 I'll pass on Morch... Especially since we just got robbed out of December. Torch April, spare March. Morch was a disaster in this state. Especially on the west side. I will pass on a Morch. Foolish to even want something like that again. It's like hoping for freezing temperatures in June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Is it possible in your view to even have an average (or above average) April temperature wise after a Morch since every time there has been an extremely warm March, April was below every time since record keeping started (that's what I read 3 years ago)? Everything seems to be hinged on equilibrium so is it feasible for the pattern to keep it up til say May or until its far enough in where frost shouldn't be a problem? Are you asking if we'd have a frostless April after a Morch? I think it would be impossible to have that happen. Eventually there would be a cold snap at some point maybe even in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 at the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 at the 00z GFS. Right where we want it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Right where we want it at this point. It's going to be a long week seeing how that end of month system ultimately plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Still ends up as a big storm but mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Still ends up as a big storm but mostly rain. But the way it got there is completely different from the previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 at the 00z GFS. If only......., but will probably push west and be another cold rainy maker for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Here's to hoping for it to trend cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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