IllinoisWedges Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Euro coming down with temps for the forum pre-Christmas, I believe. Never fear, the torch takes control for Christmas day. 996mb low also sitting in the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Looks like there may be something to watch around the 27th-28th. Could be a thread the needle setup though as cold air doesn't look abundant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 no cold air to be found Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 One thing I like is that the GFS/ECMWF are suggesting a decent Canadian high moving into place, which if it occurs, could bleed in just enough cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 One thing I like is that the GFS/ECMWF are suggesting a decent Canadian high moving into place, which if it occurs, could bleed in just enough cold air. i can say with 100% certainty that this is a rainstorm that kind of prolonged gulf flow means fat warm tongue every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 i can say with 100% certainty that this is a rainstorm that kind of prolonged gulf flow means fat warm tongue every time Well, no use getting too far into analyzing a 10 day prog but all I'm saying is that I could see how there could be snow or ice, at least initially if these solutions are on the right track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Little bit. Has 30s for northern IL 24th-26th. Not sure what the think about late next week now. Probably will be one day where it is an all out torch for the sub forum, maybe two. It's amazing how many people are talking about temperature regimes for Christmas when it won't matter anyways with bare ground. I really could care less if it's in the 40s or 60s for Christmas (actually would prefer the latter like many here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I really could care less if it's in the 40s or 60s for Christmas (actually would prefer the latter like many here). heck of a sentence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 if January is going to be that magic month when winter finally shows up.... it definitely ain't gonna be early. Fugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 @Wisconsinwx: everyone is bored, so might as well look at something in the models! EURO still has Eve chilly. 25th looks to be a transition day, but not really mild looking. 26th looks like the warm day. 240 hours looks really interesting for something though. Looks like enough cold air to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 i can say with 100% certainty that this is a rainstorm that kind of prolonged gulf flow means fat warm tongue every time yup, I'd hate to be in snow weenie mode this winter, I'd be ready to hang myself. Just enjoy the ride ma nature takes you on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 serious warm tongue nice system though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 serious warm tongue nice system though GFS has something similar around this timeframe as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 serious warm tongue nice system though It would be a shame to waste that type of cut-off low/trowal with a system that has NO cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Moist system to say the least on the 12z ECMWF. Also impressive is the 65+ kt E/NE 850 mb flow on the north side of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Moist system to say the least on the 12z ECMWF. Also impressive is the 65+ kt E/NE 850 mb flow on the north side of the system. yeah, definitely the most notable feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 How in the hell is that supposed to work anyways? It takes ~4 weeks after a PV break to start getting decent cold air outbreaks, and even then it doesn't guarantee that we'll get them. They might go to Europe. No, he's overthinking underthinking this. A lot of folks are. There's no reason to break with above to much above normal until the +AO/+ENSO combo breaks. fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 It would be a shame to waste that type of cut-off low/trowal with a system that has NO cold air. Yeah no kidding. At least the EURO has a cold high sitting to the north. Hopefully the EPO will drop by then and press that cold air southward. Actually a pool of below normal temperatures (850mb) sitting just to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Pretty loose definition of just north there buddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 How in the hell is that supposed to work anyways? It takes ~4 weeks after a PV break to start getting decent cold air outbreaks, and even then it doesn't guarantee that we'll get them. They might go to Europe. No, he's overthinking this. A lot of folks are. There's no reason to break with above to much above normal until the +AO/+ENSO combo breaks. because it only takes 2 weeks of winter warmth and no signs of change before subscriptions start cancelling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Pretty loose definition of just north there buddy Relatively not that far. To the UP where the blues start is about 350 miles as the crow flies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Relatively not that far. To the UP where the blues start is about 350 miles as the crow flies. In the matter of discussing snow for a system that cold air might as well be on the other side of the globe if its 350 miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 In the matter of discussing snow for a system that cold air might as well be on the other side of the globe if its 350 miles away. Hey at least the winds are coming in from that area. Another wet snow is fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Hey at least the winds are coming in from that area. Another wet snow is fine with me. The cold air wouldn't move in until the system has passed though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Something like the 12z Euro would result in December being wettest on record around here. Incredible amount of moisture to work with that system at the end of the run. Have not looked at individual ensemble members yet but warm sector areas would likely have a fairly substantial severe threat if synoptic evolution is anything like what's shown on operational runs. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 The cold air wouldn't move in until the system has passed though... Ok. It looked too good to be true then. I don't have access to beyond 240 hours, so I couldn't be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Something like the 12z Euro would result in December being wettest on record around here. Incredible amount of moisture to work with that system at the end of the run. Have not looked at individual ensemble members yet but warm sector areas would likely have a fairly substantial severe threat if synoptic evolution is anything like what's shown on operational runs. Sent from my SM-G900V I find that mind-boggling since I'm sitting here at 0.43" IMBY and officially 0.36" at FWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmosnow Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Ok. It looked too good to be true then. I don't have access to beyond 240 hours, so I couldn't be sure. Doubt that model run will verify but if it did cold air for Wisconsin would come in like gang busters under 850 MB.Problem is there is probably a warm tongue of above freezing temps above 850 so there is no snow flake formation and we get half frozen water till almost the very end of the precipitation period. Not to worry though. By the time the 28th comes around the details will be much altered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 I find that mind-boggling since I'm sitting here at 0.43" IMBY and officially 0.36" at FWA.I exaggerated a bit for sure but with ORD up to 1.75" on the month already and a few more rain events ahead of whatever happens next weekend, would only need a roughly 2" event to get into the top 10 (mid 4" range). What's interesting is that the wettest December on record for Chicago is December 1982 with an incredible 8.56", almost 2" above #2. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Doubt that model run will verify but if it did cold air for Wisconsin would come in like gang busters under 850 MB.Problem is there is probably a warm tongue of above freezing temps above 850 so there is no snow flake formation and we get half frozen water till almost the very end of the precipitation period. Not to worry though. By the time the 28th comes around the details will be much altered. GFS has a whole series of waves starting on the 26th-28th that ride along a baroclinic zone and there is snow accumulation with it. Way too far in advance to pin anything down though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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