Geos Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Snow band is going to oscillate back and forth for several days. We watch this every winter season! All depends on where the baroclinic zone sets up. Fun times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 For the north and west portion of the sub forum, things could get interesting Thanksgiving weekend as a -NAO, -PNA and -EPO set up. It appears that the -EPO ridge sets up far enough to the west that cold air could bleed into the lower 48 west of MSP instead of east of it. Thinking a good snowstorm could pass along the baroclinic zone effecting somewhere from near MSP to as far east as ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I think the idea is it gets cold in the east. I'll have to read the paper on the topic here when I get a little time. I could see how where the cold dumps varies based on other factors such as wavelengths, the proceeding weather pattern and how strong the typhoon is. The TR has been around for a while and JB has mentioned it for years as have other mets, but the paper Cliche posted could be the first true "research" done on it. Right, every single context I've ever seen the TR used is for a major central or eastern trough/ cold outbreak. (November 2014 is a good example) So I would expect a +PNA response, not a -PNA one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Right, every single context I've ever seen the TR used is for a major central or eastern trough/ cold outbreak. (November 2014 is a good example) So I would expect a +PNA response, not a -PNA one. Yeah i am not sure where the NAO stuff is coming from either? The cold is driven down ( into central and eastern parts of the country and or Rockies on east ) via the -EPO that typically sets up. Also see November 2013 which saw a few of these re-curves. I have seen the PNA go either way and thus see Nov 2013 which ended up negative unlike last year which yeah gave way to the trough further west then what we typically see. The main driver though is the EPO and again that is what does the deed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 That trough placement in the east looks too far east gives a blocking high pressure on Greenland's west Coast. If the high keeps on showing up, then I would expect that trough to back up some. Probably end up seeing a more broad trough over the Midwest and Great Lakes, especially if that Alaska ridge builds poleward. The problem is the STJ is already a powerhouse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I think the idea is it gets cold in the east. I'll have to read the paper on the topic here when I get a little time. I could see how where the cold dumps varies based on other factors such as wavelengths, the proceeding weather pattern and how strong the typhoon is. The TR has been around for a while and JB has mentioned it for years as have other mets, but the paper Cliche posted could be the first true "research" done on it. Actually...Heather Archambault from Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey has done quite a bit of research on the subject at hand. Her Curriculum Vitae Also...this thesis goes back to 1993... Our research shows that even though injection of a typhoon into the rossby wave packet helps to improve forecasting above 2 std, we can still perform better than climatology even if a typhoon isn't there by looking at the upper air patterns of East Asia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 Actually...Heather Archambault from Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey has done quite a bit of research on the subject at hand. Her Curriculum Vitae Also...this thesis goes back to 1993... Our research shows that even though injection of a typhoon into the rossby wave packet helps to improve forecasting above 2 std, we can still perform better than climatology even if a typhoon isn't there by looking at the upper air patterns of East Asia. Thanks for chiming in, and also linking to some other relevant research! I can certainly see how Asian patterns without a typhoon in the mix can still be used to predict North American patterns. If I'm reading your response right, it seems the correlation just becomes higher with a typhoon in the mix. Let me know if I'm interpreting you correctly or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 A week or so ago it was looking like we could get a cold wave starting around Thanksgiving. Latest trends now looking like a nice cold snap this weekend and again next, with a brief break on Thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Thanks for chiming in, and also linking to some other relevant research! I can certainly see how Asian patterns without a typhoon in the mix can still be used to predict North American patterns. If I'm reading your response right, it seems the correlation just becomes higher with a typhoon in the mix. Let me know if I'm interpreting you correctly or not. You are correct Jim! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Might I suggest that y'all look at my research partner's, Joshua Herman, website? http://beringsearule.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 The problem is the STJ is already a powerhouse Truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 this pattern would rule, pulling for it dat baroclinic zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 ^I have a lot of work lined up so it's not a bad thing. Economy booming in semi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 wouldn't mind if ripping south flow and plains bombs becomes the theme of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 ^I have a lot of work lined up so it's not a bad thing. Economy booming in semi.Yes on the economy booming sure. Starting to get the feeling more and more that indeed we are in for a roller coaster winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Yes on the economy booming sure. Starting to get the feeling more and more that indeed we are in for a roller coaster winter. I agree with this. Like you said it doesn't mean we won't see decent amount of snow. We just won't have the steady snow pack like the last couple seasons. Lots of thaws. IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Yes on the economy booming sure. Starting to get the feeling more and more that indeed we are in for a roller coaster winter.Auto sales are on pace for record highs and gas is below $2/gallon. So yeah, things are much improved from 5 years ago, although still far from the point of "money growing on trees" we experienced back in the late 90s .Even in the past year, I noticed rush hour is now much busier and there's been notable increase in job postings with decent pay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 looks like good bird prepping weather via the Canadian.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 I agree with this. Like you said it doesn't mean we won't see decent amount of snow. We just won't have the steady snow pack like the last couple seasons. Lots of thaws. IMO.Agree 100%. It's been a while that I honestly had NO gut instinct either way. Lately I'm really feeling roller coaster. As in, the cold snaps will be below to well below normal temps and of course shots of snow, but there will be plenty of thaws and possible downright spring like days. The final temp departure for winter, whatever that may be, will be the average of a wild ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Things look to remain pretty active in the sub forum into next week per the 12z GEM and 18z GFS, including a potential turkey day/Black Friday special. Loving the early season stuff to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 God that's a massive high at the end of the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 God that's a massive high at the end of the 18z GFS. If that TS in the West Pac can strengthen into a strong typhoon and recurve, I wouldn't count out that -EPO type solution on the last two runs of the GFS in the long range. There isn't much other support for it at this time, but the models have been very volatile in the long range for the last week plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Honestly, what would be the purpose of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 If that TS in the West Pac can strengthen into a strong typhoon and recurve, I wouldn't count out that -EPO type solution on the last two runs of the GFS in the long range. There isn't much other support for it at this time, but the models have been very volatile in the long range for the last week plus.Killin me!Sent from my S50 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 Killin me! Sent from my S50 In a good way or a bad way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 The -EPO ridge is gonna happen no matter what. How long it lasts and how it sets up is the large differences.The ensembles had tried to develop an Alaskan low by later next week. So this is quite a change from that if it occurs. The day 5-10 EPO should be negative though yes, we'll see if we can get anything longer than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 All the models have that -EPO... but they also agree it pumps a western trough. Should be good timing for the possibility of a Thanksgiving storm... as long as it doesn't stick in the west too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 We've seen that central/western trough quite a bit this Fall... always seems to revert back to the -PNA looking jet, except shifted east a bit. There have been some incredible wind events across the continent this month. It has been a very active fall. I wonder if this is going to be our "go to" pattern for the first half of winter... I'm okay with it. Wind storms, variable temperatures.. add some snow and I'm on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I wonder whatever happened to snowstormcanuck? He hasn't posted much lately! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I wonder whatever happened to snowstormcanuck? He hasn't posted much lately! He's typically posts a lot once winter truly settles in. ; Also, I believe another reason he hasn't posted much lately is because it's either in Alberta or Calgary for majority of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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