Winter 2015-16 Medium-Long Range Discussion

[Rainman]

February could be colder than normal.  It is possible.  But the cold will be coming from Canada, not Georgia.  And we've already had the discussion about how warm anomalies in the source region lead to warm anomalies in the airmass destination region.  This model needs to be deleted.

[BuffaloWeather]

The whole planet is going to be warmer than normal, almost every year is a new "record warm year globally".

[Hoosier]

the dry part of strong nino climo has been bust prone

 

 

dry strong Nino climo is kind of an oxymoron anyway for our area and westward into the Plains/Upper Midwest as there's really not a dry signal in the composite.  The better dry signal during strong Ninos is more in the Ohio Valley/eastern Lakes and we have that look going so far this month.  Weak-moderate Ninos are more prone to being dry it would seem.

[Rainman]

The whole planet is going to be warmer than normal, almost every year is a new "record warm year globally".

 

Except for SE Michigan, where subtropical jet activity will keep us cool.

[Hoosier]

February could be colder than normal.  It is possible.  But the cold will be coming from Canada, not Georgia.  And we've already had the discussion about how warm anomalies in the source region lead to warm anomalies in the airmass destination region.  This model needs to be deleted.

NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_lead2.png

 

 

It's been mentioned before but there's exceptions to warm anomlies in the source region=warm anomalies in the destination region.  09-10 winter is a classic example.  It took ridiculous arctic blocking to pull it off but it happened. 

[AppsRunner]

that'd be nice.  Haven't been able to wear my leopard skin g-string outside since summer '12

Perhaps that's a good thing? 

[Stebo]

Well maybe it will be a really warm Boxing Day.

 

GEM/GEM ensembles don't support a warm 25th either.

Down right cold in the morning.

 

 

It's the GEM dealing with systems coming out of the Southwest, I would use with extreme caution as it has a hard time with western trough ejections.

[buckeye]

Wow when JB says it is going to be warm you better bust out the shorts and t-shirts.

 

no worries...he says ugly til about day 20 then getting better than possibly 'better than great' after that...or in weenie terms, "Feb's gonna be rock'n"

[csnavywx]

no worries...he says ugly til about day 20 then getting better than possibly 'better than great' after that...or in weenie terms, "Feb's gonna be rock'n"

How in the hell is that supposed to work anyways? It takes ~4 weeks after a PV break to start getting decent cold air outbreaks, and even then it doesn't guarantee that we'll get them. They might go to Europe. No, he's overthinking this. A lot of folks are. There's no reason to break with above to much above normal until the +AO/+ENSO combo breaks.

[Stebo]

How in the hell is that supposed to work anyways? It takes ~4 weeks after a PV break to start getting decent cold air outbreaks, and even then it doesn't guarantee that we'll get them. They might go to Europe. No, he's overthinking this. A lot of folks are. There's no reason to break with above to much above normal until the +AO/+ENSO combo breaks.

I'd love for it to last right into Spring.

[csnavywx]

I'd love for it to last right into Spring.

The problem is, even with a break to -AO, blocking is still inhibited by a blazing Pac jet. 82-83 and 97-98 both saw SSWs and a break to -AO, but remained torchy for that very reason. I'm strongly leaning towards both Jan and Feb being warm. In that case, we're stuck with transient EPO patterns as being the only real source of cold air for snow and/or thread-the-needle scenarios. We've seen two EPO ridges get blown apart pretty quickly already this winter.

[Torchageddon]

Alek, don't be stealing torchageddon's avatar.

 

I'll take mid 50's on Christmas Eve/Day and be happy.

 

That's ironic because I'm going to use one of Alek's avatars this January. I'll explain in the banter thread.

 

Why would you want that for? Go live in Florida if you want to see that. Christmas where we live shouldn't be in 60s and 70s I'm sorry. Anyways it doesn't look like you're going to be getting your wish. All the models want to bring the front in on Xmas eve.

 

Wouldn't it be cool to have a Christmas dinner picnic outside for the first time? Snow is usually on the ground here on the 25th so when its near record breaking may as well go all in. I'm tired of the snow and cold (overall) and I've been to Florida already.

 

i'm pretty happy with my current av

 

I like your current one too.

[Jonger]

Troll?

[SpartyOn]

Troll?

Tropical V2.0

[RCNYILWX]

The problem is, even with a break to -AO, blocking is still inhibited by a blazing Pac jet. 82-83 and 97-98 both saw SSWs and a break to -AO, but remained torchy for that very reason. I'm strongly leaning towards both Jan and Feb being warm. In that case, we're stuck with transient EPO patterns as being the only real source of cold air for snow and/or thread-the-needle scenarios. We've seen two EPO ridges get blown apart pretty quickly already this winter.

Thanks for the earlier response. Definitely starting to get concerned for a wire to wire warm winter even though there's lots of time left. An overall warm winter in the means is a lock simply because of December and January looks plain ugly on the end of the ensemble runs and weeklies. Also recent CFSV2 monthly runs have trended toward a pattern similar to what we're seeing this month for January. I'm not well versed in stratosphere stuff (wave flux, perturbations etc) but agreed in erring on side of later in any meaningful changes wrt the PV and AO/NAO because of how cold and strong the vortex is now.

Wonder if the persistent AK vortex, plus firehouse PAC Jet as you alluded to, could disrupt an attempt at a better pattern even if we get a SSW and resulting -AO later in January into February. Though 2011-12 obviously wasn't a Niño, the AK vortex resulted in most of the cold air discharge being into eastern Europe and Asia when there was a SSW and strong -AO in January, then the SPV restrengthened again in February and March.

[Geos]

 

CPC released their January outlook

 

 

 

Not buying the dry signal for the Great Lakes at all. I think it anyone is dry if will be further southeast, south of Ohio River and over towards the southern Appalachians.

 

There was decent snows in 97-98 (and in November), so I know el Niño's can produce.

Hoosier has a point with weak to moderate el Niño's that are more likely to be dry in this region. 02-03 was definitely the case here.

[ClicheVortex2014]

The problem is, even with a break to -AO, blocking is still inhibited by a blazing Pac jet. 82-83 and 97-98 both saw SSWs and a break to -AO, but remained torchy for that very reason. I'm strongly leaning towards both Jan and Feb being warm. In that case, we're stuck with transient EPO patterns as being the only real source of cold air for snow and/or thread-the-needle scenarios. We've seen two EPO ridges get blown apart pretty quickly already this winter.

Even the brief -EPO periods didn't produce the typical pattern. They just pumped the -PNA.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Not buying the dry signal for the Great Lakes at all. I think it anyone is dry it will be further southeast, south of Ohio River and over towards the southern Appalachians.

 

There was decent snows in 97-98 (and in November), so I know el Niño's can produce.

Hoosier has a point with weak to moderate el Niño's that are more likely to be dry in this region. 02-03 was definitely the case here.

Looks exactly like the "typical El Nino winter pattern". I think they just got a bit lazy and copy and pasted it 

[michsnowfreak]

February could be colder than normal. It is possible. But the cold will be coming from Canada, not Georgia. And we've already had the discussion about how warm anomalies in the source region lead to warm anomalies in the airmass destination region. This model needs to be deleted.

NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_lead2.png

Lol all the models are delete worthy at times. The cfs seasonal is often terrible.

Even with that map, it's departure obviously. It's not like nasa is actually implying Georgia will be colder than canada.

[michsnowfreak]

Supposedly weeklies look much better week 3 into week 4 per NE forum

[IWXwx]

the dry part of strong nino climo has been bust prone

 

 

dry strong Nino climo is kind of an oxymoron anyway for our area and westward into the Plains/Upper Midwest as there's really not a dry signal in the composite.  The better dry signal during strong Ninos is more in the Ohio Valley/eastern Lakes and we have that look going so far this month.  Weak-moderate Ninos are more prone to being dry it would seem.

 

December precip-to-date:

 

ORD 1.81"

FWA 0.36"

[chasmosnow]

At east we are getting some action!

[chasmosnow]

 

 

Polar vortex via latest euro remains as contracted as ever.

 

So what else is new!

[dan123]

That's ironic because I'm going to use one of Alek's avatars this January. I'll explain in the banter thread.

 

 

Wouldn't it be cool to have a Christmas dinner picnic outside for the first time? Snow is usually on the ground here on the 25th so when its near record breaking may as well go all in. I'm tired of the snow and cold (overall) and I've been to Florida already.

 

 

I like your current one too.

No sorry I like Christmas cold with snow on the ground not temps in the 60s.

[chasmosnow]

This from @antmasiello on twitter. He took 23 El Nino years where the SLP over Siberia in Dec. was largely negative and then did an a did an average of those years  for the  anomalies that occurred. in the following Jan. .January..

 

 Seems when the Siberian high is weak in December you get a west coast trough and this continues into Jan.

 

Note: pictures on right are for  anomalies you get when the SLP is high over Siberia in December and lower right picture is what follows in January for temp anomalies.after a strong Siberian high in Dec.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Doesn't always happen but plenty of precedent for summers going from Nino to Nina to be hot.  Long way out but I'd lean toward warmer than average for summer 2016. 

 

Doesn't always happen but plenty of precedent for summers going from Nino to Nina to be hot.  Long way out but I'd lean toward warmer than average for summer 2016. 

This. The summers of 1983 and 1995 are good examples of this.

[buckeye]

Supposedly weeklies look much better week 3 into week 4 per NE forum

 

I just ran thru them on weatherbell.  MI and OH are only +1 departure by day 32, so yea, it's at least an improvement from the +4,5,and 6 leading up to that.

 

I also noticed that for the last several runs of the cfs2 it was showing a cold snap, (actually 'cold') for the time frame around the second week in January....today it lost that and is now much warmer looking.    Of course it's the cfs so whatever.

[Geos]

Operational GFS has a mild 23rd, especially east of here (50s). 24th 20s northwest, 30s pretty much everywhere else. 25th high 20s-30s north of I-80, low to mid 40s south of I-80. The 26th is pretty much a continuation of the 25th.

 

Let's see what the ensembles and the EURO say this time around...

[ClicheVortex2014]

Operational GFS has a mild 23rd, especially east of here (50s). 24th 20s northwest, 30s pretty much everywhere else. 25th high 20s-30s north of I-80, low to mid 40s south of I-80. The 26th is pretty much a continuation of the 25th.

 

Let's see what the ensembles and the EURO say this time around...

GEFS 2m temp anomaly for Christmas morning is similar to GFS OP... but still warmer than OP.

[Geos]

GEFS 2m temp anomaly for Christmas morning is similar to GFS OP... but still warmer than OP.

 

Little bit.

Has 30s for northern IL 24th-26th. Not sure what the think about late next week now. Probably will be one day where it is an all out torch for the sub forum, maybe two.