Rainman Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Saying no one expected this kind of warmth is not accurate. I saw several calls for potential record December warmth by mid-November. December is toast, January is probably toast. February is the best chance. I am shocked that people are acting like this pattern is a surprise of some sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 You have to also remember as I mentioned earlier today, downwind of the lakes it is going to inherently be warmer due to cloud cover. The lakes are 100% open right now, and I don't expect that to change too much before Jan 1st, so even with an Arctic blast it would take a long time to cool those lakes appreciably. Hell if we have a prolonged period in the 50s-60s the lakes might actually warm a touch. Current lake temperatures: The inland lakes might not even frozen by Jan 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 My thoughts on the 2nd half of winter echo most others. There is legitimate potential for the pattern to break down. Colder Februaries are common during el Ninos, and one reason is that they punch the polar vortex until it breaks down (some el Ninos break it down much earlier in the winter). All eyes are on a tropospherically driven SSW or PV displacement that will at least introduce potential for colder wx. The problem is that the current PV is extremely strong, so I would say that while the 2nd half has legit potential, confidence is lower than it would be otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Enough model dissention to be cautious about an all out inferno for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 What are your thoughts on improvement later in January? I think we're toast through at least the first half of the month and possibly even first 3 weeks because of the strength of the PV and time it'll take to force a meaningful pattern change even if it's displaced. I'll post some more on Friday when I have some more time, but the PV is unusually strong and large (and so are the Hadley cells, especially in the Pacific). This, combined with the firehose Pac jet (Nino) makes me think that there's a very real possibility that the entire winter is basically set for torch. At least last year, the PV had started breaking down by now. If it doesn't by the end of the month, January and the first part of Feb is done for (almost) sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Don S posted this in the main forum. Warmth this month looks a lot like December 1877. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 A good discussion on the currently state of the AO and polar vortex. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Basically states that the models predict the initial phase of the polar vortex breakdown starts next week, but takes into January to get it to weaken considerably. This is the most critical time of year for energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere and will likely determine the state of the stratospheric polar vortex in January and weather conditions across the continental mid-latitudes for the second half of the winter. A strong pulse of energy transfer is now consistently being predicted for next week by the weather models. This will start to weaken the polar vortex but by itself is not predicted to be of sufficient amplitude to significantly weaken the stratospheric polar vortex. In the near term, its most meaningful impact to sensible weather will be to force positive AO conditions with low geopotential height anomalies in the high latitudes of the troposphere and high geopotential height anomalies in the mid-latitudes. With strongly positive geopotential height anomalies across Eastern North America and Europe, the very mild temperatures will persist likely right through the New Year. We anticipate additional energy transfer pulses from the troposphere to the stratosphere beyond next week. We anticipate that the additional energy pulses will be of sufficient duration and amplitude to significantly weaken the polar vortex, most likely in January. Following the weakening of the polar vortex we expect a reversal to much colder winter weather for the Eastern United States and/or Europe for the latter half of January and into February. However, if the additional energy pulses are of insufficient duration and amplitude to force a meaningful change in the polar vortex, there is little reason to anticipate any long term deviations from the mild to very mild temperatures in eastern North America and/or Europe. CPC say no go on warm Christmas Eve in northwestern half of the sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 A good discussion on the currently state of the AO and polar vortex. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Basically states that the models predict the initial phase of the polar vortex breakdown starts next week, but takes into January to get it to weaken considerably. CPC say no go on warm Christmas Eve in northwestern half of the sub forum. Map looks heavily GFS based. GGEM tries to get something going but it looks like mostly rain. 12z Euro rolling in so we'll see what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Map looks heavily GFS based. GGEM tries to get something going but it looks like mostly rain. 12z Euro rolling in so we'll see what it shows. Yeah totally. Lol, they were quick to jump on that. A bit too quick imo. Still a mild SW flow on the 21st on the EURO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmosnow Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Map looks heavily GFS based. GGEM tries to get something going but it looks like mostly rain. 12z Euro rolling in so we'll see what it shows. Not gonna look at the Euro. Why ruin a good mood. Lets just hope current GFS holds up long enough we actually have something to track next week! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Map looks heavily GFS based. GGEM tries to get something going but it looks like mostly rain. 12z Euro rolling in so we'll see what it shows. No snow on the Euro that is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Cold front starts cutting across the Great Lakes early on the Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 No snow on the Euro that is for sure. Muted warmth though compared to yesterday so we're left in weather hell of sorts, especially for the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Muted warmth though compared to yesterday so we're left in weather hell of sorts, especially for the 25th. I think the Christmas warmth will be pushed back some, the system before Christmas is coming in slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Don S posted this in the main forum. Warmth this month looks a lot like December 1877. The pattern since November has been rather similar in nature to 1972. Magnitude of pattern is off, but general features are surprisingly similar (western trough/eastern ridge), granted the difference in PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I think the Christmas warmth will be pushed back some, the system before Christmas is coming in slower. Yeah it is just pushed back to the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Why would you want that for? Go live in Florida if you want to see that. Christmas where we live shouldn't be in 60s and 70s I'm sorry. Anyways it doesn't look like you're going to be getting your wish. All the models want to bring the front in on Xmas eve. mhm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 mhm Wow when JB says it is going to be warm you better bust out the shorts and t-shirts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Wow when JB says it is going to be warm you better bust out the shorts and t-shirts. What's scary is... he's been preaching that the next few summers are gonna be hot and dry for the Midwest. That's expected for a Nina... but for JB to call for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 What's scary is... he's been preaching that the next few summers are gonna be hot and dry for the Midwest. That's expected for a Nina... but for JB to call for it? Doesn't always happen but plenty of precedent for summers going from Nino to Nina to be hot. Long way out but I'd lean toward warmer than average for summer 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Doesn't always happen but plenty of precedent for summers going from Nino to Nina to be hot. Long way out but I'd lean toward warmer than average for summer 2016. that'd be nice. Haven't been able to wear my leopard skin g-string outside since summer '12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Doesn't always happen but plenty of precedent for summers going from Nino to Nina to be hot. Long way out but I'd lean toward warmer than average for summer 2016. Agreed. I need to do some research on the severe seasons and tornado seasons of the years that follow a strong Nino but proceed the Nina. I know 2017 should be full of fun though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Well maybe it will be a really warm Boxing Day. GEM/GEM ensembles don't support a warm 25th either. Down right cold in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 CPC released their January outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 CPC released their January outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 JAMSTEC just UPDATED for DJF....coldest run yet...lol. http://www.jamstec.g...al/outlook.html If that verified it would mean an epic JAN/FEB! I don't buy it Nasa still going cold too. All along nasa has has a warm December and cold Jan and Feb but I don't think there's any link to monthly jamstec. It's odd that it would have its coldest look yet amidst a torch dec, but we shall see come spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 12z Euro would probably get a substantial severe threat into the OV on the 23rd into the 24th. The extent of 65+ Tds is incredible with a potent southwesterly LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 CPC released their January outlook Warm and dry...I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 the dry part of strong nino climo has been bust prone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Nasa still going cold too. All along nasa has has a warm December and cold Jan and Feb but I don't think there's any link to monthly jamstec. It's odd that it would have its coldest look yet amidst a torch dec, but we shall see come spring. Is the NASA still showing it's physically impossible solution of a Canadian torch, warmth across the northern great lakes, but SE Michigan is still magically below normal? Because that isn't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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