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Winter 2015-16 Medium-Long Range Discussion

OHweather

By OHweather,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

A more wintry second half of winter WOULD be a big turnaround. It will all but certainly be a colder Jan and Feb than Dec. I will say though that while the NE forum certainly has its share of weenies, there's is plenty of analysis and discussion which explains WHY many think a big turnaround appears likely beginning in mid January. And for those that think it's going to be warm all winter, if they show REASONS why they think so, kudos and may the best forecaster win....as Winter hasn't even officially begun! I will say though that this true torch has brought the already annual "cancel winter in mid Dec" hysteria to an all time high.

 

The main reason to believe this winter could feature  longer and stronger on the warm side is quite simply because it's already happening and no one expected this kind of warmth....no one.  And simply saying everyone expected December to suck doesn't even begin to touch what's happening....potential for +10 or greater monthly departures?...that's insane.  

 

What's funny is there were those who said a warm November and a dry southern CA meant this was not going to be your daddy's  el nino, and now those same people say we'll turn around in January and February because that's what happens in el ninos.   Can't have it both ways.

 

Personally this is beginning to remind me of 2011/12 which began to show itself around the beginning of January.   I remember that winter well because I went on a long vacation out of the conus and I was constantly checking the forecast to see what I was going to be able to schedule when I got back in town.  I remember eastern troughs kept showing up in the 10 day forecasts only to fade.   That was the winter that Don S. nailed.  He was one of the few that never bought into the fantasy pattern changes.   

 

We'll know much more after the new year.  But if the first week of January rolls around and we're  talking about a Feb turn around....then this winter is on a one way road to FAIL.  OTOH, if the AO is forecast to go neg and the mjo is ready to streak into phase 7, we might just have some real hope to save winter.

 

Finally, I'm not a weenie in panic.  Yes I'm a weenie but personally I'm enjoying the ride.  If anything I might be starting to bias-torch, just a little  :)  

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

You have to also remember as I mentioned earlier today, downwind of the lakes it is going to inherently be warmer due to cloud cover. The lakes are 100% open right now, and I don't expect that to change too much before Jan 1st, so even with an Arctic blast it would take a long time to cool those lakes appreciably. Hell if we have a prolonged period in the 50s-60s the lakes might actually warm a touch.

 

Current lake temperatures:

 

lswt-00.gif

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Jonger

Jonger

Posted
Posted

You have to also remember as I mentioned earlier today, downwind of the lakes it is going to inherently be warmer due to cloud cover. The lakes are 100% open right now, and I don't expect that to change too much before Jan 1st, so even with an Arctic blast it would take a long time to cool those lakes appreciably. Hell if we have a prolonged period in the 50s-60s the lakes might actually warm a touch.

 

Current lake temperatures:

 

lswt-00.gif

 

I'm dying to see what a real arctic airmass can produce from these lake temps.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

You have to also remember as I mentioned earlier today, downwind of the lakes it is going to inherently be warmer due to cloud cover. The lakes are 100% open right now, and I don't expect that to change too much before Jan 1st, so even with an Arctic blast it would take a long time to cool those lakes appreciably. Hell if we have a prolonged period in the 50s-60s the lakes might actually warm a touch.

 

Current lake temperatures:

 

lswt-00.gif

 

Based on the latest trends it will be quite difficult for any of the lakes to get much ice on them this year. It would take some polar vortex type cold in mid/late January and February to freeze even Erie.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

JAMSTEC just UPDATED for DJF....coldest run yet...lol.

http://www.jamstec.g...al/outlook.html

If that verified it would mean an epic JAN/FEB! I don't buy it

 

That includes December?   Must be a computer ink glitch, that blue is probably suppose to be maroon.   :lol:   Can you imagine the turnaround that would have to occur for that to be accurate!

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

That includes December?   Must be a computer ink glitch, that blue is probably suppose to be maroon.   :lol:   Can you imagine the turnaround that would have to occur for that to be accurate!

With some places potentially ending up +8-12 for the month, to get that cold of anomalies you would have to run at least -6 on average for both months. I just don't see that happening especially since January looks to start off warm as well.

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csnavywx

csnavywx

Posted
Posted

The main reason to believe this winter could feature  longer and stronger on the warm side is quite simply because it's already happening and no one expected this kind of warmth....no one.  And simply saying everyone expected December to suck doesn't even begin to touch what's happening....potential for +10 or greater monthly departures?...that's insane.  

 

What's funny is there were those who said a warm November and a dry southern CA meant this was not going to be your daddy's  el nino, and now those same people say we'll turn around in January and February because that's what happens in el ninos.   Can't have it both ways.

 

Personally this is beginning to remind me of 2011/12 which began to show itself around the beginning of January.   I remember that winter well because I went on a long vacation out of the conus and I was constantly checking the forecast to see what I was going to be able to schedule when I got back in town.  I remember eastern troughs kept showing up in the 10 day forecasts only to fade.   That was the winter that Don S. nailed.  He was one of the few that never bought into the fantasy pattern changes.   

 

We'll know much more after the new year.  But if the first week of January rolls around and we're  talking about a Feb turn around....then this winter is on a one way road to FAIL.  OTOH, if the AO is forecast to go neg and the mjo is ready to streak into phase 7, we might just have some real hope to save winter.

 

Finally, I'm not a weenie in panic.  Yes I'm a weenie but personally I'm enjoying the ride.  If anything I might be starting to bias-torch, just a little  :)  

Strat PV hasn't faded at all. In fact, it's strengthened. All forecasts for it to weaken have been wrong so far. With a black hole PV and Super Nino, that's one of the easiest forecasts a seasonal forecaster can possibly make. Seriously.

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stadiumwave

stadiumwave

Posted
Posted

With some places potentially ending up +8-12 for the month, to get that cold of anomalies you would have to run at least -6 on average for both months. I just don't see that happening especially since January looks to start off warm as well.

 

 

Yea...the departures are obviously overdone.  It might have the right pattern idea but in no one will those kinds of departures verify.  It almost looks like the dang NASA model

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RCNYILWX

RCNYILWX

Posted
Posted

Strat PV hasn't faded at all. In fact, it's strengthened. All forecasts for it to weaken have been wrong so far. With a black hole PV and Super Nino, that's one of the easiest forecasts a seasonal forecaster can possibly make. Seriously.

What are your thoughts on improvement later in January? I think we're toast through at least the first half of the month and possibly even first 3 weeks because of the strength of the PV and time it'll take to force a meaningful pattern change even if it's displaced.
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Torchageddon

Torchageddon

Posted
Posted

I'm beyond ecstatic at the latest long range weather models showing record shattering warmth on Christmas Day here and widespread in this subforum. One of my long term weather dreams was to have a Christmas (where I'm at) where it was feasible to go outside in shorts and a t-shirt with partly sunny skies. The goal temperature would be a near-impossible 20ºC or around 70ºF. That would be quite a lot higher than the previous record. Despite the gradient, its possible it could be somewhere close to 20ºC for Christmas maybe in extreme SW Ontario? Since November I've been thinking about a Xmas similar to what is being modeled and the 12z Euro showing this magnitude of a torch is surreal. 

 

euro is approaching 2012 style departures

 

The last time I have been continuously enthralled with a pattern. It was one of the best weather years.

 

To add to the fun re. the epic 12z Euro torch, grabbed this from the NE forum:

 

Its as if the Euro took my dream map in my mind and put it in that frame! I'm happy its the Euro showing this and not the GFS because if it was the other way around I wouldn't take it as seriously. I honestly think that is the best possible config for my location, just wow.

 

I had to physically push my jaw back up after looking at the 12z Euro. I'm so rooting for it to be right. 73F at CLE for a max on Christmas, and the 26th probably wouldn't be any cooler verbatim. This is the rare time I'm rooting on the all out torch solution.

 

I've been rooting for it since I was a small lad. I want this Christmas to be my username. I won't be perfectly content until the model starts outputting mid 70s for all of southern Ontario for the 25th and record annihilating warm the days surrounding. The best Christmas gift I could get this go around would be 1982's crazyness put to shame!

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slow poke

slow poke

Posted
Posted

Petoskey/Charlevoix area right along 68 Toward Indian River. Buried with WSWwind.

 

Some friends of ours rented a place at Boyne the week between Christmas and New Years back in 2001. We went over one evening to hang out with them and I remember the snow being fantastic over there. Looked like somewhere from out west high in the rocky Mts.

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dan123

dan123

Posted
Posted
I'm beyond ecstatic at the latest long range weather models showing record shattering warmth on Christmas Day here and widespread in this subforum. One of my long term weather dreams was to have a Christmas (where I'm at) where it was feasible to go outside in shorts and a t-shirt with partly sunny skies. The goal temperature would be a near-impossible 20ºC or around 70ºF. That would be quite a lot higher than the previous record. Despite the gradient, its possible it could be somewhere close to 20ºC for Christmas maybe in extreme SW Ontario? Since November I've been thinking about a Xmas similar to what is being modeled and the 12z Euro showing this magnitude of a torch is surreal

Why would you want that for? Go live in Florida if you want to see that. Christmas where we live shouldn't be in 60s and 70s I'm sorry. Anyways it doesn't look like you're going to be getting your wish. All the models want to bring the front in on Xmas eve.

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