Hoosier Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I have to admit there would be something a little cool about 70 on Christmas. If it's gonna be mild then we might as well go all out instead of some 40s/50s garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 euro is approaching 2012 style departures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 No I don't there are several reasons why it is a belivable solution, more so than GFS. GFS is too progressive and tries to beat down the ridge on the east coast in an unreasonable fashion. The Euro spends several days with a flow out of the Caribbean into the Gulf and then into the Southeast, surging the moisture into the southeast. As the trough lifts out the warmth/moisture/instability will spread northward. If you want a good laugh, compare the Euro and GFS at 216 hours. Can't get any more different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 the GFS and EURO are miles a part on Xmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 If you want a good laugh, compare the Euro and GFS at 216 hours. Can't get any more different.Yeah the GFS doesn't even agree with its ensembles, that should be a huge red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 To add to the fun re. the epic 12z Euro torch, grabbed this from the NE forum: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 boston is going to go from the most epic winter ever to a total washout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Yeah the GFS doesn't even agree with its ensembles, that should be a huge red flag.12z operational Euro may be too extreme, but definitely safer bet to go with the GEFS vs. the operational GFS. It's been consistent on the Xmas period being very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Euro with some nice mid 60s dew points at the end of the run ahead of the cold front. Not too often you'll see that for a December 26th forecast Also a good 40F above average for Christmas/Boxing Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I wonder if golf courses would be open Christmas morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 boston is going to go from the most epic winter ever to a total washoutSeveral people on the NE and NYC forums very confident they're gonna have a great late January and February over there. I think a more wintry 2nd half of winter is reasonable, but not as confident in a really big turnaround. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 euro is approaching 2012 style departures The good old days. I wonder if this area is going to be right on the edge of the really warm temps in a similar fashion to last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 best warmth looks to be shunted just east of our area but it's clearly still going to be well above climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I wouldn't look for much change at all until at the very earliest, the 2nd week of Jan and even then, it might not happen. The Euro weeklies have not been bad overall. Poor JB and his "more wild than mild" from Thanksgiving to Christmas is going to bust badly and he admits it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I wouldn't look for much change at all until at the very earliest, the 2nd week of Jan and even then, it might not happen. The Euro weeklies have not been bad overall. Poor JB and his "more wild than mild" from Thanksgiving to Christmas is going to bust badly and he admits it. I don't get the weeklies but from bits of info I've read here and there, is it correct that the weeklies have been pushing back the change to a favorable pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 the GFS and EURO are miles a part on Xmas day. Yeah no kidding. GEM pretty much agrees on the GFS solution. At least the CMC ensembles match closely the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I don't get the weeklies but from bits of info I've read here and there, is it correct that the weeklies have been pushing back the change to a favorable pattern? It depends, I wouldn't even really call it a favorable pattern. It's just a change from the current pattern that would introduce cooler/colder air via more of a -EPO look. But the trough still looks centered over the west, and the cold air would be dumped into the west, with it slowly bleeding east towards mid-month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Several people on the NE and NYC forums very confident they're gonna have a great late January and February over there. I think a more wintry 2nd half of winter is reasonable, but not as confident in a really big turnaround. Yeah I am not buying the huge turnaround. It will be colder than this month but how much colder. I mean it will be hard to end up below normal downwind of the lakes as they are going to be wide open January 1st and way above normal in temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 it's not hard to have a huge turnaround when you're posting double digit positive departures still doesn't mean cold/snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 This is crazy USA_TMP_850mb_216.gif Toasty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 boston is going to go from the most epic winter ever to a total washout At this point it's so bad there isn't anyplace north to escape yet. Drawing a line from Wawa to Timmins is usually a safe bet on Jan 1st with an average high temp of 15F, but even that isn't good enough when it's 25F above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 I had to physically push my jaw back up after looking at the 12z Euro. I'm so rooting for it to be right. 73F at CLE for a max on Christmas, and the 26th probably wouldn't be any cooler verbatim. This is the rare time I'm rooting on the all out torch solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 12z operational Euro may be too extreme, but definitely safer bet to go with the GEFS vs. the operational GFS. It's been consistent on the Xmas period being very warm. Yeah, GEFS is more in line with Euro than OP. I'd expect another torch... but 70 degrees on Christmas day? I think it's just Euro being the Euro at this point. 60-65 degrees seems more reasonable. Still record breaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 You know winter is looking bad when: the debate as to whether the gfs will cave to the euro, and whether the gfs is too far east isn't referring to a snowstorm, it's referring to an epic torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I have to admit there would be something a little cool about 70 on Christmas. If it's gonna be mild then we might as well go all out instead of some 40s/50s garbage. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Looks like the GFS is going to buffer Christmas day with warmth, Christmas Eve will be warm especially for the eastern parts of the subforum, and the day after Christmas looks to be warmer though further west with the warmth compared to Euro and not quite as warm at the surface but comparable at 850mb. So essentially the Euro and now 18z GFS are on same page just off on timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Several people on the NE and NYC forums very confident they're gonna have a great late January and February over there. I think a more wintry 2nd half of winter is reasonable, but not as confident in a really big turnaround.A more wintry second half of winter WOULD be a big turnaround. It will all but certainly be a colder Jan and Feb than Dec. I will say though that while the NE forum certainly has its share of weenies, there's is plenty of analysis and discussion which explains WHY many think a big turnaround appears likely beginning in mid January. And for those that think it's going to be warm all winter, if they show REASONS why they think so, kudos and may the best forecaster win....as Winter hasn't even officially begun! I will say though that this true torch has brought the already annual "cancel winter in mid Dec" hysteria to an all time high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Lol. Bushy chipmunk tails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 GEFS 18z 24th 25th 26th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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