Stebo Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Not too often you see PWATs forecast to be above 1.5" this far north in December. I will go on record and say never is the correct response to how often we see that: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Not too often you see PWATs forecast to be above 1.5" this far north in December. I will go on record and say never is the correct response to how often we see that: 18Z GFS also hints at a probably slight risk of Severe Weather up here, with a MASSIVE Tornado Outbreak down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 18Z GFS also hints at a probably slight risk of Severe Weather up here, with a MASSIVE Tornado Outbreak down south. There is potential in a solution like the 18z GFS, I wouldn't go into exact details like this though. A lot of things can go wrong between now and then. I will say this though, the GFS issue of water loading the atmospheric column is pretty evident on the 18z run, which in turn leads to lower than expected instability and lower than expected high temperatures down south. It is however something worthy of monitoring as the potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Yes, a lot of factors need to come together but the consistency shown so far with the GFS and Euro for a major storm and that 130-150 knot 300 mb jet give rise for concern wrt to svr wx if the column is not too saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Like a cup of coffee.....hot and wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 That's a huge area of above average precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 12z GFS shunts best warmth/rains to my east looks pretty awful for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Question on PWAT measurements: How long have we been measuring this? I never heard anyone talk about PWAT 5 years ago, now people reference it all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Question on PWAT measurements: How long have we been measuring this? I never heard anyone talk about PWAT 5 years ago, now people reference it all the time. lol you deniers are really scraping the bottom of the barrel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I feel the same way. Great for our business but horrid for others. This winter is a great example on why I have never invested on snowfall removal equipment. Traditionally not counting the last 15 years it's just to wishy washy. For many landscaping companies, it's a service they HAVE to offer. People sign up for lawn services and snow removal is bundled with the lawn service, if they didn't offer snow removal, they most likely wouldn't get the contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 lol you deniers are really scraping the bottom of the barrel I'm not talking about this from a climate perspective. It's just a term nobody brought up until recently. Did anyone mention PWAT values in the 1990's? I never saw it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/1999GL010897/abstract Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 For many landscaping companies, it's a service they HAVE to offer. People sign up for lawn services and snow removal is bundled with the lawn service, if they didn't offer snow removal, they most likely wouldn't get the contract.Anyone who does snow removal on the side (not as a primary job) will tell you it's worth it in the long run. This year we have already seen one snowstorm and have 4 months to go, nino or not. Of course in recent years even snow plow operators had had enough, though I'm sure they are over anxious now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/1999GL010897/abstractLol bring on a winter of high pwats. Above normal temps, rain, & snow? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Pretty strong signal from the CIPS GEFS analogs for an active period in the two days prior to Christmas. Would be problematic with all of the traveling/last minute shopping going on for the 23rd and Christmas Eve. https://twitter.com/CIPSAnalogs/status/676400360911581185 This is obviously a long ways out, but what the 12z GFS shows for the 23/24 time period is eye opening. This might be an interesting one to track as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 12z Euro with the megatorch. GFS disagrees. We're back to this stage again. Also, the Euro seems a lot slower with the storm than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 This is obviously a long ways out, but what the 12z GFS shows for the 23/24 time period is eye opening. This might be an interesting one to track as we get closer. Just looks like a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Just looks like a lot of rain. Yea for the majority of this sub forum, but the system in general looks very anomalous for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 This is obviously a long ways out, but what the 12z GFS shows for the 23/24 time period is eye opening. This might be an interesting one to track as we get closer. Hard not to be concerned about the potential for crappy mid level lapse rates, but that minor detail (yes I'm being sarcastic) aside, this pattern is what you would want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 xmas day.... euro style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 that's what i'm talking about might have to scrap the roast and fire up the grill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 that's what i'm talking about might have to scrap the roast and fire up the grill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 madness, people in STL could be hitting the pool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 madness, people in STL could be hitting the pool All time December warmth, pretty cool actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 friv might need to turn on the AC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Crazy temp diff from Northern Mich to South Mich on the Euro for X-Mas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 12Z GFS shows a more significant severe system for the sub-forum, could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 xmas day.... euro style Mind you, that is 12z on the 25th. I about fell out of my chair when I saw this, the dew points are very similar. I mean this would be impressive for April to have a warm sector that large and saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Question on PWAT measurements: How long have we been measuring this? I never heard anyone talk about PWAT 5 years ago, now people reference it all the time. It is a calculation of the total moisture of a column of air, the origin goes back to the 1920s I believe. The only reason we are talking about it so extensively is because we are destroying records like this one from GRB over the weekend, care of splillo on twitter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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