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Winter 2015-16 Medium-Long Range Discussion

OHweather

By OHweather,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

Always great reading on the NE and also the NYC forum from the long range gurus. If the CFS weeklies are to be believed, perhaps January will be a month where the first few weeks are an inferno, followed by a more sustained pattern change to seasonable cold. There is support for the late December into January period to be a torch based on the end of run on the latest GEFS and last night's Canadian ensemble.

One of the analogs used by a poster on the NE forum is 06-07, which had a December very similar to this one and a very cold February (also top 10 snowiest in Chicago). I'd be surprised if February is as cold as that one was, but the idea of at least a seasonably cold February is reasonable. The raging PV does need to be broken down for it to happen though.

 

Well said and sounds reasonable. This month somewhat reminds me of December of 1998 also.

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

I'll never forget Feb. 2007 either. My birthday never got above 0° and there was about a foot of snow on the ground.

This was a really good blog post on the upper level pattern breakdown, including the stratospheric temperatures and polar vortex. The author thinks that the AO will flip the first week of January with the propagation of the eastern ridge into northern Canada and the Arctic.

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/962

 

Seems to favor the 86-87 and 57-58 winter analog the most.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

It's not a dead idea yet, but you are at a weather forum. Lets face it, this is a winter weather forum. Board population drops to near zero during the warm months. We actually went 3 days without a single post during one span this summer and I think it was a pre-winter forecast post that broke the streak.

It's been active for the last 6 weeks with no drop in activity. If it stays active it doesn't matter if it will snow or not, people will be posting.
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Jonger

Jonger

Posted
Posted

It's been active for the last 6 weeks with no drop in activity. If it stays active it doesn't matter if it will snow or not, people will be posting.

 

Well, there is a massive storm system just to our west and almost every post in that thread is about who is getting snow.

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Chambana

Chambana

Posted
Posted

I'll never forget Feb. 2007 either. My birthday never got above 0° and there was about a foot of snow on the ground.

This was a really good blog post on the upper level pattern breakdown, including the stratospheric temperatures and polar vortex. The author thinks that the AO will flip the first week of January with the propagation of the eastern ridge into northern Canada and the Arctic.

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/962

Seems to favor the 86-87 and 57-58 winter analog the most.

Nice read! I need to dig out my old camera and look back on that storm. I have pictures of icicles literally stretching from my gutter down to the ground, with why seemed like 3' of snow on the ground.

I was a Sr. In high school at the time (I'm 26), and my High school was in a very rural remote location, we cancelled school 4 days in a row, and being a senior we didn't have To make those days up. My school was literally drifted shut.

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RCNYILWX

RCNYILWX

Posted
Posted

Been contemplating an 06-07 type evolution as well (with a less extreme Feb as you're suggesting). And it was a Nino as well, though a low end moderate at best.

Looking at the monthly reanalysis composites and also the monthly AO average, Feb 07 had a complete rearrangement of the polar fields vs Dec 06 as the El Niño quickly collapsed (JFM ONI was 0.3). That's a good reason right there not to bank on a turnaround that extreme (not that anyone is actually calling for that). Most recent CANSIPS and to a lesser extent CFS for Feb 16 keep the strong Aleutian low feature common to strong Niños but retro it enough for a more favorable ridging trajectory from western Canada. But since Canada will still be warmer to much warmer than normal in that setup if it verifies, the cold air discharges will be modified vs what occurred in Feb 07 and in the past 2 winters.

Another point going back to the AO in 06-07 was how dramatic the change was from Dec and Jan which both averaged about +2 to February which averaged -1.3. Considering that Pacific will (likely) not be as favorable as it was that year, I think this underscores the point made in most of the LR outlooks the importance of the PV breakdown and a flip to predominantly -AO/-NAO in actually attaining a decent turnaround 2nd half of January into February. If it doesn't occur, February will still probably be more wintry, but likely to average decently above normal still.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

Nice read! I need to dig out my old camera and look back on that storm. I have pictures of icicles literally stretching from my gutter down to the ground, with why seemed like 3' of snow on the ground.

I was a Sr. In high school at the time (I'm 26), and my High school was in a very rural remote location, we cancelled school 4 days in a row, and being a senior we didn't have To make those days up. My school was literally drifted shut.

 

One of my favs (being in LAF at the time).

 

horrible here.   If you guys recall that thing kept creeping north on the models 48hrs out.  For days it was suppose to be a KY to midatlantic event.   I remember dozens of model runs in a row showing DC getting like 30 and 40", then it started the creep north and 24 hours out i-70 was the axis of heaviest.   The night before the forecasts were for 12" here.  Unfortunately the north creeping never stopped and we got the second greatest sleet storm in my life.

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chasmosnow

chasmosnow

Posted
Posted

I'll never forget Feb. 2007 either. My birthday never got above 0° and there was about a foot of snow on the ground.

This was a really good blog post on the upper level pattern breakdown, including the stratospheric temperatures and polar vortex. The author thinks that the AO will flip the first week of January with the propagation of the eastern ridge into northern Canada and the Arctic.

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/962

 

Seems to favor the 86-87 and 57-58 winter analog the most.

 

Thoughtful article! I hope he is right

 

.Out of my depth in tryiing to predict the polar strat.As solar activity begins to die after this year we could see the kind of winters we had after 2006-07.A quiet sun seems to make for lots of blocking..Not there yet but going in the right direction.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

2006-2007, 1997-1998, 1982-1983 -- all played out like this.

I don't think el nino or la nina matters unless it's extreme, the moderate nino years tend to be a crap shoot, but the strong nino years tend to play out exactly like this.

Actually 1997-98 was backwards with December the coldest winter month and Feb the warmest. Most strong ninos have December the warmest and February the coldest.
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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

Yeah, this past Summer was really the pits as far as posting activity due to both the lack of severe weather action and heat. 

 

It's sad over there man. That's why I hop over here because technically we are part of the great lakes. I wish we could combine. Upstate has 2/3 active posters. 90% of the posts are mine. I talked to myself all summer lol. Go look if you want a good laugh.

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ClicheVortex2014

ClicheVortex2014

Posted
Posted

00z GFS has some amazing things going on after hour 150

 

First, it starts with the STJ rushing into the US... nearly 150 knots at 300mb into the NE US. This brings up a plume of moisture in the east US. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/gJo5fzM.png

 

At the same time, crashing into the west coast is a 160+ knot Pacific jet. This forms a western trough, which pumps an eastern ridge, and even more moisture can advect northward. 

 

FNonTNl.png

xBA8hn3.png

 

EHI: http://i.imgur.com/s78cbeB.png

 

Next day... yet another moisture surge

lc3CvFS.png

oylpVYQ.png

 

EHI: http://i.imgur.com/9XtIv2h.png

 

Mid 60 dew points up to Cincinnati? On the GFS? Imagine what NAM would show :lol: Seriously though, 64 dew point would shatter the sounding climatology record at ILN. Current record is 56 degrees.

 

VERY potent setup. GFS has been advertising a respectable severe threat for the 23rd and 24th since last night's 00z (excluding the 06z/18z 'cuz I don't check them so I can't say anything about them)

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andyhb

andyhb

Posted
Posted

VERY potent setup. GFS has been advertising a respectable severe threat for the 23rd and 24th since last night's 00z (excluding the 06z/18z 'cuz I don't check them so I can't say anything about them)

 

Uh, that means you are missing runs. In which case, you can't conclude it has maintained consistency.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

Wednesday morning should be a fairly satisfying experience for our MSP peeps.  Looks like at least a few inches of snow should be on the way for them based on the latest few batches of guidance.  Won't be a warning criteria event or anything, but a few inches of snow in an otherwise dismal month for snow will do wonders for the psyche.  Looking like a 2-4" type event for the MSP area at this point IMO.  

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dmc76

dmc76

Posted
Posted

As a guy in business for himself, and as much as I'd love a record torch, I feel for the businesses in the east that depend on 'normal' winter conditions. My sister and her family just cancelled a planned xmas ski trip to upstate NY.

I feel the same way. Great for our business but horrid for others. This winter is a great example on why I have never invested on snowfall removal equipment. Traditionally not counting the last 15 years it's just to wishy washy.

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