buckeye Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 I'm starting to wonder if we will challenge the 1982 record for Christmas Day. i remember that well....specifically xmas eve day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 At least it won't be warm and dry. It looks like it will stay quite stormy. The northern plains could actually really cash in on these storms. So much for the cool south/warm north El Nino. La Nina came early. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Too bad there's no 396hr GFS. Impressive-looking system brewing at the very end of the 12z GFS run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 At least it won't be warm and dry. It looks like it will stay quite stormy. The northern plains could actually really cash in on these storms. So much for the cool south/warm north El Nino. La Nina came early. lol More like warm south and inferno north (relative to avg) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Too bad there's no 396hr GFS. Impressive-looking system brewing at the very end of the 12z GFS run... When isn't the 300+ impressive and hopeful? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 More like warm south and inferno north (relative to avg) MonthTDeptUS.png Well the pattern was more Nino like for the first half of the month but it looks like what cold air there is will be coming into the western half of the country later this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 When isn't the 300+ impressive and hopeful? True. But still fun to look at for eye candy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 True. But still fun to look at for eye candy. yup....and also our only source of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 The inferno cfs has joined the party and has really backed off on the warmth for Jan-Feb the last few runs (still mild, just not inferno). Step-down winter where it goes from torch December (which was predicted months ago) to seasonably cold Feb could be realized. Some interesting reading in the NE forum about the step-down process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 The inferno cfs has joined the party and has really backed off on the warmth for Jan-Feb the last few runs (still mild, just not inferno). Step-down winter where it goes from torch December (which was predicted months ago) to seasonably cold Feb could be realized. Some interesting reading in the NE forum about the step-down process. the cfs has been showing a turn to below normal for most of us in the 3-4 week timeframe, followed by moderation again, but not as extreme as present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 We hit 72 yesterday (a new record). Only dropped to 63 overnight. Very humid. +8.2 on the month. It jumped to 76 in the house last evening. Turbo-torch. If it's any consolation, we aren't the only ones getting torched. Global Dec. temps are running about +2.5 so far. +2.5 locally would be great. We are like +8.7 on the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 disappointed in temps today as compared to yesterday, the overnight low, and what I was expecting. We'll still be/are mid 60's but hopes to crack 70 seem unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 I'm all about meteorological extremes. Hell, if we're going to torch, let's make it the warmest Christmas Day ever as well as the warmest month of December ever for everyone in the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 disappointed in temps today as compared to yesterday, the overnight low, and what I was expecting. We'll still be/are mid 60's but hopes to crack 70 seem unlikely. Same here. I was hoping for a few peeks of sun so we could bust the 70° mark. Doesn't look like it''s going to happen. We're just hanging out in the low to mid 60's. EDIT: I just realized that we're bantering in the wrong thread. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 I'm all about meteorological extremes. Hell, if we're going to torch, let's make it the warmest Christmas Day ever as well as the warmest month of December ever for everyone in the subforum. There is no indication Christmas day will be record breaking. It will probably, almost guaranteed to be above average though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 The inferno cfs has joined the party and has really backed off on the warmth for Jan-Feb the last few runs (still mild, just not inferno). Step-down winter where it goes from torch December (which was predicted months ago) to seasonably cold Feb could be realized. Some interesting reading in the NE forum about the step-down process. Always great reading on the NE and also the NYC forum from the long range gurus. If the CFS weeklies are to be believed, perhaps January will be a month where the first few weeks are an inferno, followed by a more sustained pattern change to seasonable cold. There is support for the late December into January period to be a torch based on the end of run on the latest GEFS and last night's Canadian ensemble. One of the analogs used by a poster on the NE forum is 06-07, which had a December very similar to this one and a very cold February (also top 10 snowiest in Chicago). I'd be surprised if February is as cold as that one was, but the idea of at least a seasonably cold February is reasonable. The raging PV does need to be broken down for it to happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Always great reading on the NE and also the NYC forum from the long range gurus. If the CFS weeklies are to be believed, perhaps January will be a month where the first few weeks are an inferno, followed by a more sustained pattern change to seasonable cold. There is support for the late December into January period to be a torch based on the end of run on the latest GEFS and last night's Canadian ensemble. One of the analogs used by a poster on the NE forum is 06-07, which had a December very similar to this one and a very cold February (also top 10 snowiest in Chicago). I'd be surprised if February is as cold as that one was, but the idea of at least a seasonably cold February is reasonable. The raging PV does need to be broken down for it to happen though. Been contemplating an 06-07 type evolution as well (with a less extreme Feb as you're suggesting). And it was a Nino as well, though a low end moderate at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Christmas could be a real burner around much of the subfourm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Merry X-mas everyone! After a 2 day cool down next weekend there is nothing but +10-20 temperatures through the end of every ensemble run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Even this guy can't shake up this pattern, this is when you know it's bad. Stunning from above, an absolute beast below the clouds!This Aleutian low has a central pressure at 924 mb, producing gusts to 155 mph, waves over 45 feet. Unreal!This storm comes just over a year after ex-Super Typhoon Nuri broke a record as strongest storm to cross Dutch Harbor, Alaska. That storm had a central pressure of 924 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Lol @ all the weenies who bought the end of the month cool down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Lol @ all the weenies who bought the end of the month cool down It's not a dead idea yet, but you are at a weather forum. Lets face it, this is a winter weather forum. Board population drops to near zero during the warm months. We actually went 3 days without a single post during one span this summer and I think it was a pre-winter forecast post that broke the streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 There is no indication Christmas day will be record breaking. It will probably, almost guaranteed to be above average though. Most likely above average, yes. I'm just hoping for record temps in a record month, just as a snow weenie wishes for snow. Snow's not gonna happen at Christmas this year, so it might as well be a blowtorch. It's not out of the realm of possibility: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Most likely above average, yes. I'm just hoping for record temps in a record month. It's not out of the realm of possibility: gfs-ens_z500a_us_48.png I actually missed the newer runs that had us in the SE quadrant of a storm. It's possible to be another day like today. That's a real bummer if true. I'm not a religious guy, so for me personally... I only care about more traditional northern holiday joys, like sitting around a fireplace and having snow on the ground. This pretty much extinguishes both of those features. I could always fly down to Florida if I wanted this or warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Most likely above average, yes. I'm just hoping for record temps in a record month, just as a snow weenie wishes for snow. Snow's not gonna happen at Christmas this year, so it might as well be a blowtorch. It's not out of the realm of possibility: gfs-ens_z500a_us_48.png This! I'm actually enjoying this record breaking warmth and hope it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 It's too bad that we are going to have another brown xmas. My perfect winter starts around this time and lasts til about Jan 15th. I didn't mind all the warmth up until now because I thought it improved chances of a turn to more wintry weather around the holidays. Now, just like that saying, "drought begets drought", I'm starting to wonder if torch begets torch. We've been in a 2 year streak of non-summers and cold and snowy winters. Hard to imagine this dramatic turn to much above normal temps over the last month or so is suddenly going to turn around in the next couple months. I'm thinking we're locking in for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 It's too bad that we are going to have another brown xmas. My perfect winter starts around this time and lasts til about Jan 15th. I didn't mind all the warmth up until now because I thought it improved chances of a turn to more wintry weather around the holidays. Now, just like that saying, "drought begets drought", I'm starting to wonder if torch begets torch. We've been in a 2 year streak of non-summers and cold and snowy winters. Hard to imagine this dramatic turn to much above normal temps over the last month or so is suddenly going to turn around in the next couple months. I'm thinking we're locking in for awhile. 2006-2007, 1997-1998, 1982-1983 -- all played out like this. I don't think el nino or la nina matters unless it's extreme, the moderate nino years tend to be a crap shoot, but the strong nino years tend to play out exactly like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Bummer, but after this last decade of snowy winters this is easy to handle. Let's just hope this isn't the start of a ****ty multi year low snow burner pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Stunning from above, an absolute beast below the clouds! This Aleutian low has a central pressure at 924 mb, producing gusts to 155 mph, waves over 45 feet. Unreal! The crab boats would have been annihilated. Storm had a classic sting jet with exceptionally strong winds reaching the surface signified by the scorpion tail shaped presentation on satellite of the cloud head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Mean storm track still looks to be in our area for the forseeable future, so I'm still of the belief that we'll get something to our liking. But this pattern definitely requires patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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