Brewers Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Really hope the bulk of the cold can stay to the northeast next week; i.e. more Euro like. I could see the Twin Cities in the teens while Rapid City is in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 you and me both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 12:50 PM, A-L-E-K said: outside maybe our far eastern canadian friends, this is an awful look, it's not even close to being a good clipper pattern That meandering low pressure depicted on the GFS would bring amazing totals to the Lakes region. Probably not your backyard though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 1:35 PM, Jonger said: That meandering low pressure depicted on the GFS would bring amazing totals to the Lakes region. Probably not your backyard though. What is your thoughts for SEMI? Looks Loke marginal temps on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 1:41 PM, dmc76 said: What is your thoughts for SEMI? Looks Loke marginal temps on Monday. We will have covered grass by next weekend, that looks like a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 1:35 PM, Jonger said: That meandering low pressure depicted on the GFS would bring amazing totals to the Lakes region. Probably not your backyard though. you said that last time we had one of these boring cold dry spells and it was super lame...everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 2:35 PM, Jonger said: We will have covered grass by next weekend, that looks like a given. For us probably for the Detroit area tbd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 3:14 PM, A-L-E-K said: you said that last time we had one of these boring cold dry spells and it was super lame...everywhere It's a classic snowbelts of Michigan setup. Outside of the belts not so sure yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 3:14 PM, A-L-E-K said: you said that last time we had one of these boring cold dry spells and it was super lame...everywhere Time frame? Because I recall 30 inches of snow falling on me one week in Munising. That same snow is still there. But, Chicago... I'm sure it sucked there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 3:24 PM, dmc76 said: It's a classic snowbelts of Michigan setup. Outside of the belts not so sure yet. I'd heading up one week from today to ride from Newberry to Hurley Wisconsin. I'm pretty sure it won't be super boring with the LES ripping all around me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 9:59 AM, blackrock said: GRR NWS discussion just made me groan big time. He discussed how the MJO should be causing it to be very warm next week and how the models "may" change that way over the next couple days. The MJO has no amplitude though. It's sitting on the circle of death right now. Early week system might be something to watch. GEM and GFS want to park a low over lake MI and cause lake enhanced snow and light synoptic snows. Temps in the 20s to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 3:14 PM, A-L-E-K said: you said that last time we had one of these boring cold dry spells and it was super lame...everywhere It's been a repetitive pattern since November. nice cutting storm. Short lived Cold air mass. Pattern relaxes to normal or slightly above,but dry. Best hope is that your in the zone for snow when it cuts. Chicago has run the gamut: November record snow 11.2". December record sleet storm. Yesterday heavy rain and thunder. Next.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 3:33 PM, Jonger said: I'd heading up one week from today to ride from Newberry to Hurley Wisconsin. I'm pretty sure it won't be super boring with the LES ripping all around me.sounds like a freakin blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 3:29 PM, Jonger said: Time frame? Because I recall 30 inches of snow falling on me one week in Munising. That same snow is still there. But, Chicago... I'm sure it sucked there. It snowed every day here. The Lakes always save us when it's cold. Big storm potential when it's cold? That's another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 7:42 PM, michsnowfreak said: It snowed every day here. The Lakes always save us when it's cold. Big storm potential when it's cold? That's another story. Nobody!!! Does dustings better then SEMI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 8:34 PM, Angrysummons said: A number of GEFS after 144hrs aren't as enthused as the OP with the clipper/arctic shot. The control run is starkly different. Considering what GRR said this morning, I am not surprised. It is already coming in much more subdued than originally forecast as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 18Z GFS likes the look of the LES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 11:26 PM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 18Z GFS likes the look of the LES lol. Looks about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 GFS is relentless with winter through the entire run. Nasty cold spells upcoming. It's funny how locals think spring is coming. Heck, January has been it for cold. I do think some people look forward to more sun than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 11:57 PM, Jonger said: GFS is relentless with winter through the entire run. Nasty cold spells upcoming. It's funny how locals think spring is coming. Heck, January has been it for cold. I do think some people look forward to more sun than anything. Add another NWS office that's says its going to be short lived.... Here is Buffalo NY THIS DEEPENING TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BURGEONING UPSTREAM WEST COAST RIDGE TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR A LOBE OF SUB-ARCTIC AIR TO PUSH SOUTHWARDS INTO THE NATIONS MID-SECTION...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK. WHILE WE WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF VERY COLD WEATHER WITH THIS SCENARIO ON WEDNESDAY ...MANY WILL BE HAPPY TO KNOW THAT THE TURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 3:33 PM, Jonger said: I'd heading up one week from today to ride from Newberry to Hurley Wisconsin. I'm pretty sure it won't be super boring with the LES ripping all around me.Silver Street or bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 On 2/4/2016 at 12:48 AM, SpartyOn said: Add another NWS office that's says its going to be short lived.... Here is Buffalo NY THIS DEEPENING TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BURGEONING UPSTREAM WEST COAST RIDGE TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR A LOBE OF SUB-ARCTIC AIR TO PUSH SOUTHWARDS INTO THE NATIONS MID-SECTION...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK. WHILE WE WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF VERY COLD WEATHER WITH THIS SCENARIO ON WEDNESDAY ... MANY WILL BE HAPPY TO KNOW THAT THE TURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 11:57 PM, Jonger said: GFS is relentless with winter through the entire run. Nasty cold spells upcoming. It's funny how locals think spring is coming. Heck, January has been it for cold. I do think some people look forward to more sun than anything. And just like that, the 00z laughs at cold in the fantasy range. It looks like April. Guess we just gotta sit back, and hope spring comes early. Here's to a good severe season and a torch throughout the spring and summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 On 2/4/2016 at 5:12 AM, IllinoisWedges said: And just like that, the 00z laughs at cold in the fantasy range. It looks like April. Guess we just gotta sit back, and hope spring comes early. Here's to a good severe season and a torch throughout the spring and summer. I know it's only the first week of Feb, but damn... The long range is brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 On 2/4/2016 at 5:12 AM, IllinoisWedges said: And just like that, the 00z laughs at cold in the fantasy range. It looks like April. Guess we just gotta sit back, and hope spring comes early. Here's to a good severe season and a torch throughout the spring and summer. It will flip back.... I hope we are troughing into mid April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 On 2/3/2016 at 11:48 PM, cyclone77 said: lol. Looks about right. It got a little better. Just need the low to dig like the GEM shows it and spin for awhile and fling moisture from the lake back westward. Model has two really decent clippers after that that go through by day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 On 2/4/2016 at 5:43 AM, Jonger said: It will flip back.... I hope we are troughing into mid April.Keep on trolling. No one hopes for cold weather in April that can screw up vegetation, we have played that game enough over the last 10 to 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 There's been significant volatility the past few days on the ensembles mid month and beyond. According to the LR gurus on the New England subforum, could be related to the handling of the MJO. But anyway, today's and tonight's run of the GEFS and 2 of past 3 runs of the Euro EPS dump a trough/lower than climo heights back into the west with ridging/higher than climo heights eastern 1/3 of US beyond next weekend. Also some signal for low pressure over the Ohio Valley or west and positive precip anomalies. Latest Canadian ensembles are at odds with the others and want to keep ridging over the west. We'll see how things trend the next few days (& 00z EPS tonight), but some potential for a milder and more active pattern. Til then, have to hope for a clipper or two to trend stronger for areas outside the lake belts. Otherwise looks chilly and mainly dry NW flow. Curious to what some of the LR guys on this subforum think about potential for a mid month pattern change. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 On 2/4/2016 at 5:43 AM, Jonger said: It will flip back.... I hope we are troughing into mid April. The cold hasn't locked in all winter, what makes you think it will lock in now. And yes, the GFS drops the cold as expected. The euro also keeps the lowest hieghts situated further NE as it considers a transient trough idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 On 2/4/2016 at 6:08 AM, Stebo said: Keep on trolling. No one hopes for cold weather in April that can screw up vegetation, we have played that game enough over the last 10 to 20 years. vegetation is largely dormant until the end of April. Some people want torch right now, some people want cold...everyone is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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