LizardMafia Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 At this rate, we should just start talking about spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 6:59 PM, A-L-E-K said: euro brings the torch Flashback to december... Unlikely verify but would be a much more exciting pattern with chances at decent storms again between warm spells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 7:14 PM, A-L-E-K said: nina is a long way off, we're stuck in strong nino conditions for the remainder of the winter Yup, and some were expecting a rapid decline to neutral conditions by spring, I don't see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Sorry, since we're still on the same page where we started talking about the Nina, I can still make a case that it's still relevant. I wanna post the JAMSTEC that updated today. Very aggressive with the transition. Here's how it performed at this time in 2010 regarding the 2010-2012 Nina Not gonna lie... starting to get excited about the Nina. I know, we still have to pass through the spring barrier unfortunately. That sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Any potential La Nina is a long way from being relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 8:44 PM, ClicheVortex2014 said: Sorry, since we're still on the same page where we started talking about the Nina, I can still make a case that it's still relevant. I wanna post the JAMSTEC that updated today. Very aggressive with the transition. Here's how it performed at this time in 2010 regarding the 2010-2012 Nina Not gonna lie... starting to get excited about the Nina. I know, we still have to pass through the spring barrier unfortunately. That sucks. Its been funny to watch all these forecast calling for a rapid nino decline since november..... and here we sit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yeah I love Ninas compared to Ninos. East coast Weenies pretty much universally hate them on the other hand (-PNAs tend to go hand in hand which are usually warm and boring for them.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 9:01 PM, wisconsinwx said: Yeah I love Ninas compared to Ninos. East coast Weenies pretty much universally hate them on the other hand (-PNAs tend to go hand in hand which are usually warm and boring for them.) Exactly. February 2010 compared to 2011, night and day difference for both subs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I played around with some ONI/snowfall numbers a few months ago. I found that winter snowfall in the GTA averages 62" when the DJF ONI is between 0.0 and -1.5. The peak tends to lie in the moderate nina range. ONI 0.0 to -0.4: 55" ONI -0.5 to -0.9: 59" ONI -1.0 to -1.5: 72" ONI -1.6 to -2.0: 40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 6:43 PM, LakeEffectOH said: During most strong Ninas, the SE Ridge commonly rears its ugly head along with the dreaded ++EPO. Attached are temp anomaly maps with all strong Ninas since 1950 and all strong Ninas since 1950 with the two cold exceptions (1970-71 & 2010-2011) removed. On the bottom map, you can see the SE ridge and the +EPO torch much of the country and to some extent the top map. We definitely get iffier in strong Ninas, although for the sub-forum overall La Nina's are decidedly better, and I think the maps you posted bear that out...with a strong temp gradient over the southern/eastern end of the sub which would suggest overall storminess and possibly above average snow for a lot of the Great Lakes. If we got a strong La Nina and continue the trend mentioned by csnavywx of a more negative AO it could work out well for Ohio still...which could happen with a likely -QBO next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 12z GFS has some potential nasty cold around D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 10:50 PM, SpartyOn said: 12z GFS has some potential nasty cold around D10. Seeing that too. Today's runs of the GFS don't look so warm in the extended. Still think we return to a more pacific-dominated pattern, but it doesn't look like a repeat of what we saw much of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 ENSO region 4 and 1+2 have cooled the most recently. If we have a solid moderate to strong la Niña and a tame SE ridge, we could really be rockin' the storms in the subforum like Stebo said yesterday. The EURO cyclops low continues to trend into the sub tropics. Would side with the GFS vs. the EURO in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 On 1/16/2016 at 1:40 AM, Angrysummons said: Truncated faux ridge. The GFS doesn't truncate anytime during the run, I don't know why you keep saying this but it is patently false. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Lol x2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 On 1/16/2016 at 2:22 AM, Angrysummons said: Call it whatever you wish, models blow bringing energy off the pacific after 168hrs(and have enough issues at 100hrs lol). They are to fast and take stuff in the GofA and have it over Minnesota a day later. That creates a situation where a ridge pops up where the former energy was stationed. That isn't truncation though... that is a model bias with respect to the speed energy is moving which is a completely different thing. The ridge popping up where a trough was though is usually how things go especially in a progressive pattern, which we are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 18Z GFS trended further north for the next thursday system, has been for the past couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 On 1/15/2016 at 8:51 PM, nwburbschaser said: Any potential La Nina is a long way from being relevant. We have this thread for a reason... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46390-el-nino-watch/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 On 1/16/2016 at 2:31 AM, Stebo said: That isn't truncation though... that is a model bias with respect to the speed energy is moving which is a completely different thing. The ridge popping up where a trough was though is usually how things go especially in a progressive pattern, which we are in. Note, the GFS changes resolution from 13km to a lower resolution at 240 hours. If you see a weird thing at 168 hours, it can't be the truncation problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Stratospheric warming event about to hit the polar regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 On 1/16/2016 at 5:14 AM, Chinook said: Note, the GFS changes resolution from 13km to a lower resolution at 240 hours. If you see a weird thing at 168 hours, it can't be the truncation problem.Did not notice that, the change must be small then. Either way as you noted it isn't at 168hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 So basically, more below average temps and relatively dry weather as we go forward. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 No, it's going to be mild. Stop listening to weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 all potential fantasy snow opportunities over the next 10 days have evaporated. So much for the "just-bring-the-cold-and-the-snow-will-take-care-of-itself" theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 On 1/16/2016 at 1:53 PM, buckeye said: all potential fantasy snow opportunities over the next 10 days have evaporated. So much for the "just-bring-the-cold-and-the-snow-will-take-care-of-itself" theory. Downwind of the lakes that theory has worked well. Which IMO the original intent of that comment referenced the lake belts and most of Michigan. ALEK and his blanket statements of mild weather might hold some merit but given poor performance on many of the globals it should be taken with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 On 1/16/2016 at 2:30 PM, SpartyOn said: Downwind of the lakes that theory has worked well. Which IMO the original intent of that comment referenced the lake belts and most of Michigan. ALEK and his blanket statements of mild weather might hold some merit but given poor performance on many of the globals it should be taken with a grain of salt. Wasn't referring to a specific post or comment. I've seen it alluded to throughout the forum, that if we get the cold, snow is inevitable and it wasn't a reference to LES. (that's obvious anyways). Ironically the biggest snowstorm for the sub came in the midst of a period in which the storm was bookended with relatively mild air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 On 1/16/2016 at 12:05 PM, A-L-E-K said: No, it's going to be mild. Stop listening to weenies Mild relatively to the hell incoming the next couple of days? Perhaps. But still below average for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 On 1/16/2016 at 1:53 PM, buckeye said: all potential fantasy snow opportunities over the next 10 days have evaporated. So much for the "just-bring-the-cold-and-the-snow-will-take-care-of-itself" theory. 12z gfs still holding onto a possibility next week for us Ohio folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 On 1/16/2016 at 1:53 PM, buckeye said: all potential fantasy snow opportunities over the next 10 days have evaporated. So much for the "just-bring-the-cold-and-the-snow-will-take-care-of-itself" theory. Hey the overnight 0z Euro parallel run gives the Ohio River 10" on Friday. All hope is not lost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.