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Winter 2015-16 Medium-Long Range Discussion


OHweather

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And also better wave separtion. But I'm still not confident that will happen.

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The storm behind the weekend storm is starting to look a bit more interesting. Personally I think I'll be rooting for the lead system to track as far northwest as possible as that should open the door to a farther northwest track for the system afterward.

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  On 1/4/2016 at 6:19 PM, Angrysummons said:

Gotta give JB credit if it blows up. Nobody saw this coming...................

He never said anything about a big storm, he only said the coldest air nationwide, colder than the last 2 years, which is ludicrous. JB doesn't deserve any credit. 

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JB was mentioning the January 1978 storm a while back I think.  Even if this storm pans out, it has a looong way to go to get to something resembling 1978 on the models.  I think a more appropriate comparison (in terms of setup) may be the January 5, 2014 storm.

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  On 1/4/2016 at 6:31 PM, Hoosier said:

JB was mentioning the January 1978 storm a while back I think.  Even if this storm pans out, it has a looong way to go to get to something resembling 1978 on the models.  I think a more appropriate comparison (in terms of setup) may be the January 5, 2014 storm.

 

he did bring it up a week or so again....but since then has been going with a gulf to midatlantic coast track.   Btw, euro says what storm?

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  On 1/4/2016 at 6:31 PM, Hoosier said:

JB was mentioning the January 1978 storm a while back I think.  Even if this storm pans out, it has a looong way to go to get to something resembling 1978 on the models.  I think a more appropriate comparison (in terms of setup) may be the January 5, 2014 storm.

still too generous

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  On 1/4/2016 at 6:31 PM, Hoosier said:

JB was mentioning the January 1978 storm a while back I think.  Even if this storm pans out, it has a looong way to go to get to something resembling 1978 on the models.  I think a more appropriate comparison (in terms of setup) may be the January 5, 2014 storm.

 

Doesn't he do that once or twice every season?  

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Here's January 5, 2014 and the upcoming setup as progged by the GFS.  We'll have to see how it trends but as modeled right now, the 2014 storm was one of the first that came to mind.  I definitely think it's a way better comparison than 1978, though that is not saying a lot.

 

 

 

post-14-0-85048700-1451933300_thumb.png

 

 

post-14-0-01619600-1451933310_thumb.png

 

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  On 1/4/2016 at 6:49 PM, Hoosier said:

Here's January 5, 2014 and the upcoming setup as progged by the GFS.  We'll have to see how it trends but as modeled right now, the 2014 storm was one of the first that came to mind.  I definitely think it's a way better comparison than 1978, though that is not saying a lot.

 

 

 

attachicon.gif010515.png

 

 

attachicon.gifUntitled.png

This time though, we actually have a decent STJ at play also.

So a stronger/wetter storm than 1/5/14 also wouldn't surprise me, if everything lines up just right.

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  On 1/4/2016 at 5:38 PM, Jonger said:

Super hyped for this pattern.

Hotels booked.

Johndee going all out.

The lakes definitely have the opportunity to get burred if that air does come down. with all lakes open for business and still pretty warm. 

 

I gotta laugh at john dee, he kinda reminds me of a LES hyped up Joe B especially for the keweenaw. 

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  On 1/4/2016 at 6:31 PM, Hoosier said:

JB was mentioning the January 1978 storm a while back I think.  Even if this storm pans out, it has a looong way to go to get to something resembling 1978 on the models.  I think a more appropriate comparison (in terms of setup) may be the January 5, 2014 storm.

 

Lonnie Fisher at IWX mentioned a jan. '78 anlog in his disco this morning. Maybe this is where JB was getting it:

 

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TURNING COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK. NCEP/WPC

MODELS AND OTHER MODELS WERE HAVING A HARD TIME HANDLING UPSTREAM

BLOCKING WITH ANOMALOUSLY STRONG FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN

PACIFIC PER CPC/GFS ANALOGS. SO LOTS OF ENERGY WILL BE CUTTING

UNDER THE UPSTREAM RIDGE/BLOCK. THE ANALOG CORRELATION COEFFICIENT

WAS VERY HIGH...ALMOST 0.95...SO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN APPEARS

MORE STABLE. AN ANALOG FROM JANUARY OF 1978 HAS SHOWN UP FOR THE

PAST 3 NIGHTS IN THIS PATTERN. AN ANALOG FROM JANUARY 1998 WAS

ALSO IN THE 10 TEN WHICH SUGGESTS A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BEYOND THE

END OF THE PERIOD.

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  On 1/5/2016 at 2:22 AM, Jonger said:

We could have hurricanes, tornadoes and frogs raining from the sky and the month would still suck at +10F.

 

Pretty sure most people hate -20˚C departures as well, aside from you. You've had 3 straight winters of money in the bank (like the folks in New England).

 

If you want that kind of cold, move to Yellowknife.

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