ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 On 12/6/2015 at 5:48 AM, Geos said: Nice cutter on the 16th on the GFS. Looks like a flip to wintry after the 14th or so. Rest of the run of the GFS actually has big parts of the Midwest below normal for awhile. Highest departures in the northern Plains. The ensembles aren't exactly on the same page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 On 12/6/2015 at 5:52 AM, ClicheVortex2014 said: The ensembles aren't exactly on the same page Control run at least resembles winter for awhile. A step in the right direction. Will see what the EURO hints at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 Pacific jet becomes more buckled on the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 On 12/6/2015 at 6:18 AM, Geos said: Pacific jet becomes more buckled on the CMC. Look at the reload at 240 though, jet all the across Asia is pretty insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 On 12/6/2015 at 5:25 AM, Thundersnow12 said: 130kt jet streak at 500mb leads to one of the craziest bomb solutions I've seen on a model. 1002mb to 970mb and actually deepens 8mb in 3hr Yeah that solution was high end deepening. It loses about 22 mb in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 Wow, the 12z GFS says hello Dec '87 blizzard. That's one hell of run for model porn, especially for MO through eastern IA into WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 On 12/6/2015 at 5:40 PM, cyclone77 said: Wow, the 12z GFS says hello Dec '87 blizzard. That's one hell of run for model porn, especially for MO through eastern IA into WI. Some of the individual ensembles have been absolutely nuts as you might imagine. I think I saw one that took it down to like 962 in southern MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 Hopefully that Day 10 storm comes to fruition. This would definitely bring a swatch of snow to many sub-forum members and places of interest for myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 On 12/6/2015 at 5:40 PM, cyclone77 said: Wow, the 12z GFS says hello Dec '87 blizzard. That's one hell of run for model porn, especially for MO through eastern IA into WI. Fairly iffy temp wise for mid-Dec... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 On 12/6/2015 at 6:55 PM, Chicago Storm said: Fairly iffy temp wise for mid-Dec... Yeah pretty marginal for Dec. I remember with the '87 blizzard we had interludes of mixed sleet with the heavy snow. Too bad this run is at 204hrs out instead of 24hrs lol. I'm sure things will change quite a bit with this, but still fun to dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 On 12/6/2015 at 6:11 PM, Hoosier said: Some of the individual ensembles have been absolutely nuts as you might imagine. I think I saw one that took it down to like 962 in southern MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 On 12/6/2015 at 7:47 PM, cyclone77 said: Of course there's approximately 1 historical case where something resembling that happened (we all know which one) so probably very unlikely lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 On 12/6/2015 at 9:03 PM, Angrysummons said: I give it a 1.145588585% chance So you're saying there's a chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 GFS shows that switch to at least temporary seasonable conditions 11-15 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 12:59 AM, Geos said: GFS shows that switch to at least temporary seasonable conditions 11-15 days out. Things still look active around that time so some one is bound to cash in. Again as others have mentioned, the further west you are the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Monstrous system on the 00z Euro once again, model suite schizophrenia continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 6:49 AM, andyhb said: Monstrous system on the 00z Euro once again, model suite schizophrenia continues. You think that snowstorm could happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 6:49 AM, andyhb said: Monstrous system on the 00z Euro once again, model suite schizophrenia continues. Looks like a 20mb drop in 12hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 12z GEM with a nice 21mb drop in 24hrs starting at 144hr. Cold air lacks significantly on the GEM, and the cold sector is mostly heavy rain lol. Very nice coupled upper jet. 00z Euro was showing a similarly structured jet. It's starting to become clear that something big is going to happen later this weekend. Hopefully future model runs include a little more cold air for more snow in the cold sector for wherever this thing ends up tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 6:49 AM, andyhb said: Monstrous system on the 00z Euro once again, model suite schizophrenia continues. Yeah got down to 971 mb in sw MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 12z Euro revving up 997 mb near Texarkana at 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 5:44 PM, cyclone77 said: 12z GEM with a nice 21mb drop in 24hrs starting at 144hr. Cold air lacks significantly on the GEM, and the cold sector is mostly heavy rain lol. Very nice coupled upper jet. 00z Euro was showing a similarly structured jet. It's starting to become clear that something big is going to happen later this weekend. Hopefully future model runs include a little more cold air for more snow in the cold sector for wherever this thing ends up tracking. A good chunk of the Euro ensemble members (more than half) have a fairly impressive swath of snow somewhere with this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 6:30 PM, Hoosier said: 12z Euro revving up 997 mb near Texarkana at 144 hours. 991mb over northeast AR by 150hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 6:34 PM, Thundersnow12 said: 991mb over northeast AR by 150hr Sub 980 mb over Lake Huron at 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 6:35 PM, Hoosier said: Sub 980 mb over Lake Huron at 168 hours. 978mb southwest of IKK with one of the most impressive deformation band signals but just looks too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 6:39 PM, Thundersnow12 said: 978mb southwest of IKK with one of the most impressive deformation band signals but just looks too warm At least it's windy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 the entire continent is lacking in deep cold, i'd punt snow chances with this one already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 6:39 PM, Thundersnow12 said: 978mb southwest of IKK with one of the most impressive deformation band signals but just looks too warm That deformation is just sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 pics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 On 12/7/2015 at 6:54 PM, A-L-E-K said: pics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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