DTWXRISK Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Notice the HUGE alaska Low / PV and deep western coast trough (strong positive EPO) and the persistent ridge over the se US and a series of big Plains Midwest Low s during the month VERY similar to current pattern and sure enough NOV 2009 foretold a truly crappy winter in 2009-10 right ? oh um wait maybe not That being said I am NOT NOT NOT saying this winter is 2009-10 It wont be But every year we go through thiswarm NOV in the eastern US has no bearing on the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Stratospheric PV is strengthening at the moment (and is forecast to continue to do so through the end of the month). We'll probably have to wait several weeks before that probably weakens and breaks down due to Nino -AO tendency and some help from Siberian snowcover, so December may be a dead ratter (like last year). However, if that PV continues to strengthen into "black hole" territory, it's going to get tough to break it down in timely fashion and we'll be stuck with the Pac jet flooding the source regions with warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 I don't really think many people are hinging their winter outlooks on pure linear extrapolation of November temperature anomalies. It has more to do with el Nino driven warmth and a strengthening PV backed by a +QBO. For some reason, the existence of forcing that can cause DJ to be similar to November is really painful for some people. Yes, Dave. We know that if DJ is similar to November that it isn't the anomalies that caused it. It's the forcing behind the anomalies that existed through all three months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 I don't really think many people are hinging their winter outlooks on pure linear extrapolation of November temperature anomalies. It has more to do with el Nino driven warmth and a strengthening PV backed by a +QBO. For some reason, the existence of forcing that can cause DJ to be similar to November is really painful for some people. Yes, Dave. We know that if DJ is similar to November that it isn't the anomalies that caused it. It's the forcing behind the anomalies that existed through all three months. The PV is under attack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 That it is, but will it be enough? The PV is awfully strong for only mid Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Its not a good look. Mild to very mild with some good tracks but no cold air or tracks to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted November 14, 2015 Author Share Posted November 14, 2015 I AGREE Stratospheric PV is strengthening at the moment (and is forecast to continue to do so through the end of the month). We'll probably have to wait several weeks before that probably weakens and breaks down due to Nino -AO tendency and some help from Siberian snowcover, so December may be a dead ratter (like last year). However, if that PV continues to strengthen into "black hole" territory, it's going to get tough to break it down in timely fashion and we'll be stuck with the Pac jet flooding the source regions with warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted November 14, 2015 Author Share Posted November 14, 2015 YES... for now Its not a good look. Mild to very mild with some good tracks but no cold air or tracks to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 Its not a good look. Mild to very mild with some good tracks but no cold air or tracks to the west. Good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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