thewxmann Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Last time we had anything like this in the Panhandles was probably 5/15/03 or 6/8/95. This is an incredible event unfolding. This event kinda reminds me of 3/28/07 in a way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 SPC stays with enhanced risk .CNTRL PLAINS THIS EVENING A PLUME OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY MID 50S DEWPOINTS CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY ADVECT NWD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THE 17/00Z DDC RAOB EXHIBITED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE --COMPARED TO THE 17/20Z RAOB-- AND COUPLED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING...MODERATE BUOYANCY AMIDST AN ENLARGING HODOGRAPH WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MEDIUM TO LONGER-TRACK SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE EXPANDED THE 10 PERCENT SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PROBABILITIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FAVORABLE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT FROM NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER SWD INTO SWRN KS. STRONGER DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE RAPID EWD PROGRESSION OF THE PACIFIC FRONT INTO THE REGION FROM THE W WILL PROMOTE UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS INTO SMALL BOWS/LINE SEGMENTS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE LATER ACTIVITY BEING ISOLD DMGG WINDS. ...W TX AND TX PANHANDLE EWD THROUGH OK AND N-CNTRL/CNTRL TX LATER TONIGHT... AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO SURGE NWD TONIGHT AS A SLY LLJ INTENSIFIES WITH THE RICHER MOISTURE FORECAST ALONG AND S OF A NWD-MOVING DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OK LATER TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SPEED MAX NOSE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WILL FAVOR A MIXED MODE OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS THROUGH THE EVENING. ATTENDANT THREATS FOR TORNADOES /POSSIBLY STRONG/...HAIL AND WIND WILL ACCOMPANY ANY SUPERCELL ACTIVITY. AS THE PACIFIC FRONT RAPIDLY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND LIKELY COALESCE INTO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE. THE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SEVERE-WIND PRODUCING SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 400 M2 PER S2/ WILL LEND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE BAND OF STORMS MOVES EWD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 This event kinda reminds me of 3/28/07 in a way. The tornadoes here seem significantly stronger than that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Hoover, TX, population 5, needs to be underground. May not be much left of that place after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Just an absolute monster via Chance Coldiron's stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 The first storm will move near Canadian, and the second one will be close to Miami in TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...EASTERN BEAVER COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA...* UNTIL 815 PM CST* AT 720 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADOWAS LOCATED OVER ELMWOOD...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF BEAVER...MOVINGNORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRISMAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILEHOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TOHOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETEDESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...BEAVER...GATE AND KNOWLES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 How many "large and extremely dangerous" tornadoes do we have right now? 3 or 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Last time we had anything like this in the Panhandles was probably 5/15/03 or 6/8/95. This is an incredible event unfolding. This could be a case where the SPC was too conservative. I'll wait and see where all the chips fall first, but my first impression this morning was that a 10% tornado area was too low. Many of you on here already expressed the same general sentiment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Codman AGAIN. ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CST FORSOUTHEASTERN ROBERTS COUNTY...AT 731 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WASLOCATED OVER CODMAN...OR NEAR MIAMI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAYBE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMESWILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TOHOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETEDESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...MIAMI...LORA AND CODMAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Codman AGAIN. ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CST FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROBERTS COUNTY... AT 731 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER CODMAN...OR NEAR MIAMI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MIAMI...LORA AND CODMAN. The Evansville of Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Codman AGAIN. ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CST FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROBERTS COUNTY... AT 731 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER CODMAN...OR NEAR MIAMI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MIAMI...LORA AND CODMAN. If I'm reading right, Codman is a ghost town, with only a couple people there tops, so it's probably not hitting much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Canadian is in some serious trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 If I'm reading right, Codman is a ghost town, with only a couple people there tops, so it's probably not hitting much. Yeah, didn't see much on Google maps except for a railroad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 SPC stays with enhanced risk .CNTRL PLAINS THIS EVENING A PLUME OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY MID 50S DEWPOINTS CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY ADVECT NWD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THE 17/00Z DDC RAOB EXHIBITED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE --COMPARED TO THE 17/20Z RAOB-- AND COUPLED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING...MODERATE BUOYANCY AMIDST AN ENLARGING HODOGRAPH WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MEDIUM TO LONGER-TRACK SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE EXPANDED THE 10 PERCENT SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PROBABILITIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FAVORABLE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT FROM NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER SWD INTO SWRN KS. STRONGER DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE RAPID EWD PROGRESSION OF THE PACIFIC FRONT INTO THE REGION FROM THE W WILL PROMOTE UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS INTO SMALL BOWS/LINE SEGMENTS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE LATER ACTIVITY BEING ISOLD DMGG WINDS. ...W TX AND TX PANHANDLE EWD THROUGH OK AND N-CNTRL/CNTRL TX LATER TONIGHT... AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO SURGE NWD TONIGHT AS A SLY LLJ INTENSIFIES WITH THE RICHER MOISTURE FORECAST ALONG AND S OF A NWD-MOVING DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OK LATER TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SPEED MAX NOSE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WILL FAVOR A MIXED MODE OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS THROUGH THE EVENING. ATTENDANT THREATS FOR TORNADOES /POSSIBLY STRONG/...HAIL AND WIND WILL ACCOMPANY ANY SUPERCELL ACTIVITY. AS THE PACIFIC FRONT RAPIDLY MOVES EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND LIKELY COALESCE INTO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE. THE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SEVERE-WIND PRODUCING SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 400 M2 PER S2/ WILL LEND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE BAND OF STORMS MOVES EWD Not bashing SPC at all, in fact just the opposite as they have been spot on, but I'm surprised there hasn't been an upgrade to a Moderate Risk given the number of TORs and the usage of enhanced wording. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Not bashing SPC at all, in fact just the opposite as they have been spot on, but I'm surprised there hasn't been an upgrade to a Moderate Risk given the number of TORs and the usage of enhanced wording. I agree, I expected the update by 10am and it didn't happen...then I figured 2pm...didn't happen. Interesting for sure. I'm worried the tor threat is going to persist much further east than currently anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Not bashing SPC at all, in fact just the opposite as they have been spot on, but I'm surprised there hasn't been an upgrade to a Moderate Risk given the number of TORs and the usage of enhanced wording. Back in the old days today would of been a Moderate risk most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Canadian is in some serious trouble. Population near 3000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 not a PDS this time may go west of town C211-393-170200- /O.CON.KAMA.TO.W.0040.000000T0000Z-151117T0200Z/ HEMPHILL TX-ROBERTS TX- 744 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR NORTHWESTERN HEMPHILL AND NORTHEASTERN ROBERTS COUNTIES... AT 743 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF CANADIAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Not bashing SPC at all, in fact just the opposite as they have been spot on, but I'm surprised there hasn't been an upgrade to a Moderate Risk given the number of TORs and the usage of enhanced wording. Probably not going have the coverage in wind and hail reports for a moderate. Maybe you could argue a 15% and hatched tornado threat to bump it up, but looking at the reports map it would have been an exceedingly small area in hindsight. I think if you look at the progression of the outlooks from 06z on, they did a very good job at capturing the changing mesoscale conditions and highlighting the most at risk areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Debris falling from the sky west of Canadian TX per Jeff Piotrowski. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 SPC perfect forecast from CIPS will likely have this as a MDT or High event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 large tornado reported near Miami TX, 10 min ago -- 741 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CST FORSOUTHEASTERN ROBERTS COUNTY... -- AT 740 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WASLOCATED NEAR MIAMI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 751 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... LIPSCOMB COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS... NORTHERN HEMPHILL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS... * UNTIL 845 PM CST * AT 750 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF CANADIAN... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Confirmed tornado near Canadian, TX moving NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Dangerous look on the HRRR for late tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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