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Nov. 16th-17th Severe Event


Quincy

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...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CST FOR


NORTHEASTERN FINNEY AND SOUTHEASTERN LANE COUNTIES...


        


AT 529 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS


LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF KALVESTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.


 


THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.


 


HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. 


 


SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. 


 


IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 


         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE 


         TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS 


         LIKELY. 


 


THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF


NORTHEASTERN FINNEY AND SOUTHEASTERN LANE COUNTIES.


 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


 


TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY


TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE


TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY


BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR


OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT


YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.


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* AT 551 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO

  WAS LOCATED VERY NEAR KISMET...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

 

  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. 

 

  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. 

 

  SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. 

 

  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 

           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. 

           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE 

           DAMAGE IS LIKELY. 

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mcd1953.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0556 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION INTO SW KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 537...

VALID 162356Z - 170130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 537 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME. EVENTUALLY...ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF WW 537...BUT IT MAY STILL BE ANOTHER
SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY
NEAR/EAST OF A PRE-COLD FRONTAL DRY-LINE TYPE STRUCTURE. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL APPEARS TO EXTEND ACROSS FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO...AND IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. IT REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY THIS
WILL OCCUR...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT BE UNTIL AN ASSOCIATED
UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW FINALLY PROGRESSES EAST NORTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS MAY NOT BE UNTIL AT LEAST THE 03-06Z
TIME FRAME.

UNTIL THE FRONT BEGINS ITS EASTWARD SURGE...THE STORM MODE WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN MOSTLY DISCRETE/SUPERCELLULAR...WITH ACTIVITY
TENDING TO MOVE FASTER TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST...THAN EAST...IN THE
PRESENCE OF 40-50+ KT SOUTHERLY LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
THROUGH 01-03Z...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FURTHER STRENGTHENING
OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW TO 50-60+ KT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUED GRADUAL
MOISTENING IN LOWER LEVELS...WHICH MAY OFFSET STABILIZATION TRENDS
ASSOCIATED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY IN INCREASING RISK FOR TORNADOES IN
STRONGEST STORMS.

..KERR.. 11/16/2015

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