Indystorm Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I think many of us will be busy observers both today and tomorrow with the intensity of this system and progged moisture values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Low-level clouds burning off in the E TX Panhandle and many places in the area are already into the low to mid-70s. 18z HRRR shows what looks to be discrete/semi-discrete storms in the C Panhandle region this evening. Wish this wasn't on the edge of the domain for this image, but it still gets the point across. HRRR KCDS sounding also looks great around this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Short range guidence does generally seem to be getting more aggressive with the discrete cells around sunset and a little while thereafter. Quite a few distinct updraft helicity swaths can be seen on the last few HRRR runs, and with good clearing/surface heating in the panhandle currently, we could be setting up to possibly verify these supercells. I am not out today. Considering the distance for me to travel, early sundown, and stuff I have lined up school-wise, I couldn't justify it this time around. If I'm lucky, maybe I'll be able to sneak in a local chase tomorrow morning, but I'll certainly be watching things unfold this evening and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 20z update adds sig-hatching for tornadoes and expands the 10% tor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 20z update adds sig-hatching for tornadoes and expands the 10% tor. Thought they might go with moderate for tornadoes. It's crazy how you can clearly see hook echos on the HRRR. Looks like it's gonna get nasty in a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 19z HRRR has some pretty impressive 2-5lm UH tracks and continues to highlight the eastern panhandle of Texas/ southern Kansas as the area with an enhanced discrete cell threat (and obviously a tornado threat with any semi-discrete cells). Upper level energy looks to be arriving from NM into the western Panhandle now which has ignited a few severe cells already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 74/60 at Childress with south wind gusting to 33 mph. Still cloudy there but clearing westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I really don't understand AMA basically saying all QLCS and no supercells in their latest AFD when there are a number of factors pointing to a decent window for discrete/semi discrete activity, supported by high res guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 19z Observed AMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 First tornado warning of the day in SW KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I really don't understand AMA basically saying all QLCS and no supercells in their latest AFD when there are a number of factors pointing to a decent window for discrete/semi discrete activity, supported by high res guidance. They've been saying that for several days now, and have also pointed to a pretty minimal TOR threat in several of their recent AFD's. Kind of a headscratcher given SPC forecast, as well as what other local WFO's are saying, also given that their CWA is in the area where initiation is progged to take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 They've been saying that for several days now, and have also pointed to a pretty minimal TOR threat in several of their recent AFD's. Kind of a headscratcher given SPC forecast, as well as what other local WFO's are saying, also given that their CWA is in the area where initiation is progged to take place. Actually a couple of days ago they were hitting the setup harder when it looked a bit less impressive. This is more likely to be a difference in approach between particular forecasters than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 First tornado warning of the day in SW KS. Looks like there might be another warning soon for the cell west of Garden City Impressive start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Cells in KS showing signs of rotation already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 FWIW 18Z 4K NAM didn't have supercells as far east as they are in SW KS until 00Z, 12NAM and 18Z HRRR shared similarities. Regardless all those models light up the dryline later on with numerous discrete dryline supercells. Actually a couple of days ago they were hitting the setup harder when it looked a bit less impressive. This is more likely to be a difference in approach between particular forecasters than anything else. Sorry missed that, I really only looked yesterday and just assumed it was a continuation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Severe tstorm warning, tornado watch, and blizzard warning... all for one location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 David Drummond is streaming in the Texas Panhandle... on an intensifying supercell https://tvnweather.com/live/chasers/847783585 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 This actually looks like a decent tornado threat to me especially the farther east you go towards and into OK where dewpoint depressions and LCL heights are more favorable. It looks like the wind fields are strong enough in that sounding posted above to support at least some discrete activity I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 The most impressive cell in KS ATM could have Garden City under the gun here within the next 30-45 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 TOR warning out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 New MCD says tornado threat will increase as low-level moisture/shear/instability will increase over the next few hours... strong tornadoes will be possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Trevor Leeper has a great view of the tornadic supercell https://tvnweather.com/live/chasers/847783589 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Trevor Leeper has a great view of the tornadic supercell https://tvnweather.com/live/chasers/847783589 He says it's on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Sounds like a TOR was reported on that KS storm per Forbes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKStormFan Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Looks like a winter wonderland on Leepers stream currently, a proper whiteout covering of hail - potentially golfball sized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Ground covered with hail, all white south of Ulysses per live stream of Trevor Leeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Sounds like a TOR was reported on that KS storm per Forbes Warning now says confirmed tornado, both by spotters and radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Carbin posting this: https://twitter.com/GCarbin/status/666376410299133952 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 .....TORNADO REPORTS..........TORNADO REPORTS..........TORNADO REPORTS..... 1 *TORN 8 S ULYSSES KS (35 NW LBL) 16/1554 DDC/LSR 374610136 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 New warning is back to radar indicated... but the polygon suggests a left turn, right into Garden City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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