jojo762 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Reports of debris falling from the sky ahead of that cell moving into KS. Had a wicked BWER a bit earlier. For the record, this is the merger of the two Pampa cells earlier, so this has been exceptionally long lived. I believe the first Pampa cell initiated a very long time ago near the NM/TX border west of Lubbock. That measures somewhere around ~300 miles traveled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 https://www.rt.com/usa/322369-massive-tornado-texas-halliburton-plant/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Quite wide... Massive wedge tornado near Miami, TX on Monday night from Dick McGowan and Connor McCrorey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 HRRR has a bunch of popcorn cells overnight within a decent environment. I just picked a random spot ahead of the squall, where the popcorn cells are: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 For the record, this is the merger of the two Pampa cells earlier, so this has been exceptionally long lived. Slightly too far south, but it's kind of ridiculous how well some of the HRRR runs from earlier today wound up doing. Targeted the SW KS and NE TX Panhandle swaths pretty dang well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 The 06Z sounding from KOUN is certainly not your typical mid-November sounding from the Southern Plains, that's for sure.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Now... do we switch to another subforum for Tuesday's severe weather? 10% tornado introduced again. But I doubt we're gonna see nearly as many tornadoes tomorrow as we did today. Today was quite something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgidd8 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 I unfortunately had a lab I couldn't miss in Norman today that ended at 4, and I ended up following that HRRR run to the T tonight. Meaning, a new chase partner and I sat on the Oklahoma/Texas border on I 40 hoping one more cell would spawn south and slightly east of the two cells that pounded Pampa. If I didn't have an interview and a midterm tomorrow, I would have bit the bullet, headed north to catch the Pampa cells and settled with 5 hours of sleep. Either way, I would've killed for these winds last Spring. Such an exceptional Fall setup. I can't wait to see the photos and videos of these tubes come out this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 There's a bit of an interesting notch in the line east of Amarillo. The lead edge of this line could produce some spin-ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokey_mountain_vols Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 This is gonna hurt here in Tulsa. Sent from my HTC6525LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 So this AFD issued at 12:35 pm prior to the event today from AMA was "interesting", especially when a ton of CAM guidance was suggesting multiple discrete storms and there were a number of factors favouring them. I mentioned then that I didn't agree with it at all. Should note that they did update later on with a heavier worded discussion, but this one was just baffling at the time. EVENT EVOLUTION: THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS WILL LEAD TO ANIMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS LOWTO MODERATE CAPE/HIGH SHEAR. LIMITED CAPPING SHOULD BE EASILYOVERCOME THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT OR UPSCALEGROWTH OF ERN NM CONVECTION EXPECTED BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.GIVEN EFFECTIVE SHEAR VECTORS ALIGNED CLOSELY TO STORM MOTION ANDAFOREMENTIONED DEEP/STRONG FORCING...RAPID EVOLUTION TO A QLCS ISEXPECTED BY 22-23Z WITH THE PEAK OF STORM SEVERITY LIKELY BETWEEN22Z-03Z. THIS TIMING WILL FAVOR THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK FROMROUGHLY CLAUDE TO SPEARMAN EASTWARD TO THE OK BORDER, THOUGH INITIALCONVECTION A BIT FURTHER WEST COULD ALSO BE SEVERE. GIVEN APROPENSITY FOR THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS TO BE QUICKLY REPLACED BEHINDDEPARTING STORMS AND CONTINUED UPR DIFFLUENCE/HEIGHT FALLS, A SECONDQLCS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEHIND THE FIRST ONE, THOUGH THISPROBABILITY IS LOWER. INDIVIDUAL STORM MOTIONS WILL BE RACING FROMSW TO NE AT 40-50KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ENTIRE QLCS MOVING W TOE AT 30-40KTS.THREATS: ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS APPEAR POSSIBLE TODAY IN VARYINGDEGREES. GIVEN EXPECTED 0-1 SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35KTS...OUTFLOWBOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN TIED CLOSE TO THE LEADING EDGE OF THEQLCS AND SWATHS OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. THISTHREAT WILL BE FURTHER INCREASED IF MODEL FCST DCAPE VALUES OF 1000J/KG MATERIALIZE. AS THE LATE AFTERNOON WEARS INTO THE EVENING...EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 300-400 M2/S2 WHICHWILL PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL EMBEDDED QLCS TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LOW LCLS. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF 2 INCHES WILL ALSO BEA THREAT GIVEN TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND MODEST CAPE IN THEHAIL GROWTH ZONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 99 MPH wind gust in Red Rock according to mesonet with the line? Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 99 MPH wind gust in Red Rock according to mesonet with the line? Really? Likely a mesovortex-induced tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Tornado warning for Tarrant county EDIT: Now Collin county. Moving right along 121 EDIT: Sirens going off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Storms coming out of the warm air advection are producing, even to the south. Likely tornado passed just over six miles away from my house in College Station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Nice little tornado warning over me this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 HRRR isn't picking up on much action ahead of the line today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Thought this was pretty cool, from near Osage County (just east of Red Rock) last night: https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status/666635541287452672 Similar to Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds, observed waves along leading edge of line last night in OK w/ intense S flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Pretty unbelievable that today earned the same tornado risk as yesterday per SPC, at least in Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Pretty unbelievable that today earned the same tornado risk as yesterday per SPC, at least in Arkansas. It's pretty messy over there, I think a 5% risk would be more believable. Yesterday caught a lot of people by surprise by the number and duration of isolated supercells that were able to take advantage of the environment. I strongly doubt we'll see very many reports today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/666712378520772610 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/666712378520772610 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 In a perfect world: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/RTIME/PPF_realtime.php?date=201511171200 Meant to show the concentration of reports more than anything: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Two tornadoes confirmed so far in the DFW Metroplex. EF-1 in Corinth in Denton County and an EF-0 in Keller in Tarrant County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 2 EF3s now confirmed from last night, the second Pampa tornado that hit the Halliburton plant, and the long tracker near Kismet and Plains in KS. There had never been an EF3+ at this longitude in N America in November prior to last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 It's pretty messy over there, I think a 5% risk would be more believable. Yesterday caught a lot of people by surprise by the number and duration of isolated supercells that were able to take advantage of the environment. I strongly doubt we'll see very many reports today. HRRR had been warning us pretty early on about those cells. It looked pretty nasty. With that said... I didn't expect it to be that much of an outbreak. It got pretty out of hand yesterday. We had 3 PDS warnings at one moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2015/11/17/unprecedented-november-tornado-outbreak-or-not-some-expert-perspective/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2015/11/17/unprecedented-november-tornado-outbreak-or-not-some-expert-perspective/ Challenge accepted, November 4th 1922 there was a tornado in Colorado, it started at 5am and had a 180 mile long path. http://www.kktv.com/blogs/talkweather/Colorado_Tornado_History_208432951.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Challenge accepted, November 4th 1922 there was a tornado in Colorado, it started at 5am and had a 180 mile long path. http://www.kktv.com/blogs/talkweather/Colorado_Tornado_History_208432951.html I highly doubt it was continuously on the ground for 180 miles. Most likely a single cell producing multiple tornadoes or a cell merger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 http://i.imgur.com/vSONjD2.png Disc, what G2G shear did you have on this? That has to be up close to 200 kts if I'm not mistaken. Challenge accepted, November 4th 1922 there was a tornado in Colorado, it started at 5am and had a 180 mile long path. http://www.kktv.com/blogs/talkweather/Colorado_Tornado_History_208432951.html That's also only one tornado. There were probably at least a half dozen large, significant tornadoes last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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