Winter Outlook 2016

[JC-CT]

I don't remember saying that MBY had a better shot of repeating last year than seeing 45", but if I did, then that was both comical and dumb.

 

Ray, there was a whole lot of comedy in this thread. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46257-winter-of-15-16/page-99

 

I ruled out a dead ratter.

I highly doubt +3.

 

I should not have bothered bc now there are going to be litany of counters, but I feel really good about how this winter will turn out.

I think something more comparable to last year's totals is likely as opposed to a ratter for interior SNE.

MBY will not receive less than 45" of snow.

Copy, paste, print it, rub your weenie on it.

All of the above??

All we can do is be humble about our mistakes. Your outlook wasn't a total failure by any means, and the season isn't done yet, but on several occasions this season your probability levels were too high given the state of the science. That's all I was saying, not that you didn't hit several main points about the pattern evolution in your outlook...but that you probably overestimated the certainty of the deterministic impacts that would result. I commend you for putting your thoughts and a forecast out there, but you have to expect people to critique it if it fails just as you would hope that people would commend it if it succeeds - especially when you use wording as strong as you did at times this year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

 

Ray, there was a whole lot of comedy in this thread. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46257-winter-of-15-16/page-99

 

All we can do is be humble about our mistakes. Your outlook wasn't a total failure by any means, and the season isn't done yet, but on several occasions this season your probability levels were too high given the state of the science. That's all I was saying, not that you didn't hit several main points about the pattern evolution in your outlook...but that you probably overestimated the certainty of the deterministic impacts that would result. I commend you for putting your thoughts and a forecast out there, but you have to expect people to critique it if it fails just as you would hope that people would commend it if it succeeds - especially when you use wording as strong as you did at times this year.

Absolutely agreed.

 

I worded many of my posts far too strongly...in fact, I've said that myself on a few different occasions.

Very fair post, imo.

[ORH_wxman]

This winter is a good example of how a crappy NAO can ruin a serviceable PAC. We didn;t have a death vortex over the Bering like '11-'12 or '01-'02, etc....but the PAC wasn't dead perfect either like it was for about 6 weeks last winter...and for several different 3 week intervals in 2013-2014. A good -NAO can be a godsend to a merely "serviceable" PAC pattern...and a +NAO can do the opposite.

 

I do agree with Tip there is something to be said for a lot of shortwave interference too...it was difficult to get things more coherent in the flow...and the lack of a consistent STJ also limited our potential since El Nino's thrive on STJ threats running up into more marginal airmasses....when you are trying to get storms from the polar jet in a marginal airmass, you are usually skunked with a cutter or some other hideous event where the cold doesn't lock in....when you have most of it from the southern stream, you can develop mid-level centers down in the southeast US and that is a lot more favorable.

 

 

At any rate...it has been an interesting season. Not over yet...a couple decent sized storms in March can change the whole tenure and perception of the season (as well as the hard numbers too).

 

 

But just my .02 on some of the critical factors that did or didn't materialize in this winter.

[CoastalWx]

This winter is a good example of how a crappy NAO can ruin a serviceable PAC. We didn;t have a death vortex over the Bering like '11-'12 or '01-'02, etc....but the PAC wasn't dead perfect either like it was for about 6 weeks last winter...and for several different 3 week intervals in 2013-2014. A good -NAO can be a godsend to a merely "serviceable" PAC pattern...and a +NAO can do the opposite.

 

I do agree with Tip there is something to be said for a lot of shortwave interference too...it was difficult to get things more coherent in the flow...and the lack of a consistent STJ also limited our potential since El Nino's thrive on STJ threats running up into more marginal airmasses....when you are trying to get storms from the polar jet in a marginal airmass, you are usually skunked with a cutter or some other hideous event where the cold doesn't lock in....when you have most of it from the southern stream, you can develop mid-level centers down in the southeast US and that is a lot more favorable.

 

 

At any rate...it has been an interesting season. Not over yet...a couple decent sized storms in March can change the whole tenure and perception of the season (as well as the hard numbers too).

 

 

But just my .02 on some of the critical factors that did or didn't materialize in this winter.

Good post, I completely agree. The Pacific actually worked out how I was hoping, but it was a classic +NAO FU to the northeast....well most of the northeast anyways. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I love to forecast with passion, and am not afraid to fall flat on my face, which I did in some aspects....but I will make a conscious effort to tone it down a bit next year, as well as be more receptive to disparate views.

I do agree that some bad luck, the NAO and the relatively meager STJ are the main reasons for my failure.

Aside from the NAO and the STJ, my ideas actually have worked out well.

 

What is the running DJF NAO number?

[ORH_wxman]

I love to forecast with passion, and am not afraid to fall flat on my face, which I did in some aspects....but I will make a conscious effort to tone it down a bit next year, as well as be more receptive to disparate views.

I do agree that some bad luck, the NAO and the relatively meager STJ are the main reasons for my failure.

Aside from the NAO and the STJ, my ideas actually have worked out well.

 

What is the running DJF NAO number?

 

Not sure what the exact number is but you can see on the top image (observations), it has been positive pretty much all winter except that period in Mid-January

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Hurrell number (SLP method) won't come out until spring sometime...that's another one to use as an alternative to CPC...but the Hurrell number should be solidly positive too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not sure what the exact number is but you can see on the top image (observations), it has been positive pretty much all winter except that period in Mid-January

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Hurrell number (SLP method) won't come out until spring sometime...that's another one to use as an alternative to CPC...but the Hurrell number should be solidly positive too.

I went marginally negative....like negative neutral.

[CoastalWx]

I love to forecast with passion, and am not afraid to fall flat on my face, which I did in some aspects....but I will make a conscious effort to tone it down a bit next year, as well as be more receptive to disparate views.

I do agree that some bad luck, the NAO and the relatively meager STJ are the main reasons for my failure.

Aside from the NAO and the STJ, my ideas actually have worked out well.

 

What is the running DJF NAO number?

[40/70 Benchmark]

I see that GIF in my future whenever I become heated

[Damage In Tolland]

Warmest winter on record at PVD and top 2-3 at all 3 other climb sites in SNE.

The Chinese zodiac year of the rat FTL

When you see #supernino progged..you rat

[powderfreak]

Warmest winter on record at PVD and top 2-3 at all 3 other climb sites in SNE.

The Chinese zodiac year of the rate FTL

When you see #supernino progged..you rat

Be curious to see the NNE numbers but I bet it's very similar. Top warmest winter and top low snowfall winter is a true ratter.

[Damage In Tolland]

Be curious to see the NNE numbers but I bet it's very similar. Top warmest winter and top low snowfall winter is a true ratter.

Superninos just overwhelm all other indicies. No matter the year . Nothing stands a chance vs. it

[40/70 Benchmark]

Superninos just overwhelm all other indicies. No matter the year . Nothing stands a chance vs. it

I expected this season to turn out like 1983 snowfall wise, which was very reasonable....the only reason why it didn't was because of unpredictable nuances.

Having a super nino by no means ensures exotically large negative snowfall departures, but it happened to this year, unfortunately.

[powderfreak]

I expected this season to turn out like 1983 snowfall wise, which was very reasonable....the only reason why it didn't was because of unpredictable nuances.

Your forecasts and statements are always very well thought out, but I have to ask about the unpredictable nuances. You mean in exact storm track or lack of -NAO? I just feel like there must be more than just unexpected nuances as to why this was a record crapper year for snow. But also might not be understanding the statement.

[ORH_wxman]

Your forecasts and statements are always very well thought out, but I have to ask about the unpredictable nuances. You mean in exact storm track or lack of -NAO? I just feel like there must be more than just unexpected nuances as to why this was a record crapper year for snow. But also might not be understanding the statement.

 

He's probably talking more about SNE missing 20" of snow by a small nuance in the blizzard setup in January...the numbers would be closer to his forecast if it had worked out.

 

It obviously would not have done much of anything for CNE/NNE. The lack of a -NAO is a huge reason for the sh**ty season in my book...SNE included. The fact that you are near record lows is probably a function of nuances too rather than just mundanely crappy. You missed on some setups that usually give you decent snows.

[40/70 Benchmark]

He's probably talking more about SNE missing 20" of snow by a small nuance in the blizzard setup in January...the numbers would be closer to his forecast if it had worked out.

 

It obviously would not have done much of anything for CNE/NNE. The lack of a -NAO is a huge reason for the sh**ty season in my book...SNE included. The fact that you are near record lows is probably a function of nuances too rather than just mundanely crappy. You missed on some setups that usually give you decent snows.

Yes.

 

Not to mention that a relatively short distance north of him has been getting smoked...I expected his area to share in some of that and perhaps it would have with even a modicum of NAO assist.

With the exception of the NAO, which I missed, there was nothing wrong with my thought process.

 

Don't get me wrong, I busted....but not all busts are created equally.

This is why I take the time to present my ideas so vividly in "excruciating detail", in the words of Steve, as opposed to simply puking out numbers like KA.

 

Harkens back to middle school algebra class...."show the work"...

 

I will focus more on what could go wrong in the future.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Honestly, I feel as though this was a better outlook than last year's.

[OSUmetstud]

Interesting that theres been a war this year. Looks atypical to nino climo.

[powderfreak]

He's probably talking more about SNE missing 20" of snow by a small nuance in the blizzard setup in January...the numbers would be closer to his forecast if it had worked out.

 

It obviously would not have done much of anything for CNE/NNE. The lack of a -NAO is a huge reason for the sh**ty season in my book...SNE included. The fact that you are near record lows is probably a function of nuances too rather than just mundanely crappy. You missed on some setups that usually give you decent snows.

 

Oh I agree that in order to get records one way or another you need some help from nuances, luck, whatever people want to call it. 

 

But there are also very good reasons why you got put even close to that situation in the first part...just an overall crappy winter that nuances made even more crappy. 

 

I also agree a 20" storm in SNE would've pretty much doubled seasonal amounts and definitely put more spots in that 40-50" range. 

[powderfreak]

Yes.

 

Not to mention that a relatively short distance north of him has been getting smoked...I expected his area to share in some of that and perhaps it would have with even a modicum of NAO assist.

With the exception of the NAO, which I missed, there was nothing wrong with my thought process.

 

Don't get me wrong, I busted....but not all busts are created equally.

This is why I take the time to present my ideas so vividly in "excruciating detail", in the words of Steve, as opposed to simply puking out numbers like KA.

 

Harkens back to middle school algebra class...."show the work"...

 

I will focus more on what could go wrong in the future.

 

Yeah and I've got a lot of IMBY going on... I just seems like its been far snowless and far too warm to just be nuances. 

 

I agree the -NAO is the primary reason for how far down the crapper this winter ended up.  That's totally fair, I just got caught up with the comment "the only reason why it didn't was because of unpredictable nuances."

 

And you're right, just 150-200 miles north has gotten smoked in February (though they had an equally crappy first half of the winter). 

 

I just see the warm stats and there's something in this pattern that has been leading to en fuego temperatures.

 

Locally the departures are nothing short of torch..

 

December...+13.8

January...+5.5

February...+5.8

 

MET winter average of +8.3F.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah and I've got a lot of IMBY going on... I just seems like its been far snowless and far too warm to just be nuances.

I agree the -NAO is the primary reason for how far down the crapper this winter ended up. That's totally fair, I just got caught up with the comment "the only reason why it didn't was because of unpredictable nuances."

And you're right, just 150-200 miles north has gotten smoked in February (though they had an equally crappy first half of the winter).

I just see the warm stats and there's something in this pattern that has been leading to en fuego temperatures.

Locally the departures are nothing short of torch..

December...+13.8

January...+5.5

February...+5.8

MET winter average of +8.3F.

It's called #Supernino

[powderfreak]

It's called #Supernino

 

That does seem to be a gross over-simplification.

 

If we had a a good -NAO with #supernino, it might have been #supersnowy.

 

What year was the last #SuperNino?  1997-98.  That was #SuperDeep.

 

[#NoPoles]

That does seem to be a gross over-simplification.

If we had a a good -NAO with #supernino, it might have been #supersnowy.

What year was the last #SuperNino? 1997-98. That was #SuperDeep.

super_nino.png

Omg, that graph is just horrid, makes me want to throw up in my mouth a little

[CoastalWx]

That does seem to be a gross over-simplification.

If we had a a good -NAO with #supernino, it might have been #supersnowy.

What year was the last #SuperNino? 1997-98. That was #SuperDeep.

super_nino.png

This super Nino seems to lack a good STJ driving systems north into a borderline airmass like previous ones. We didn't have the big GOAK ripping s/w's east across the deep south. We had something which would normally be better......or so I thought. A ridge out west. But, it was a bit too far west and systems amplified with ease. Factor in a raging +NAO and a PV that would phase with any s/w that came out of the Rockies and there ya go. That PV was a bit too far north.

[CoastalWx]

The end of the 6z GFS illustrates my point. I sort of was envisioning that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah and I've got a lot of IMBY going on... I just seems like its been far snowless and far too warm to just be nuances. 

 

I agree the -NAO is the primary reason for how far down the crapper this winter ended up.  That's totally fair, I just got caught up with the comment "the only reason why it didn't was because of unpredictable nuances."

 

And you're right, just 150-200 miles north has gotten smoked in February (though they had an equally crappy first half of the winter). 

 

I just see the warm stats and there's something in this pattern that has been leading to en fuego temperatures.

 

Locally the departures are nothing short of torch..

 

December...+13.8

January...+5.5

February...+5.8

 

MET winter average of +8.3F.

Yea, like Scott said.....the STJ was a bit underwhelming, too.

I'm not sure what you want me to tell you.

Snowfall in our region is more closely correlated with precrip, as opposed to temps.....so no, the extremely warm temperatures and respectable snowfall are not mutually exclusive....especially near you.

I expected the warmest December on record, so I'm not sure what else you want.

I have said, Jan and Feb were warmer than expected because the NAO was a no show, and the PV got taken to the shed too late.

 

Whether you want to accept it or not, nuances can account for exotically different snowfall appeals.

This is just the way it is.

Phasing failed when we needed it, succeeded when we needed it to fail, the the PNA positioned as such that the downstream trough was centered too far inland.

How much snow do you think that we would have gotten if that latter Jan/Feb 2015 ridge were positioned 200 miles to the west???

The answer is probably at least 50" less than we received throughout most to sne....more than many places average in a normal season.

Kind of a big deal.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The NAO did not work out...bad call.

The snowfall did not work out because of the NAO, a relatively underwhelming STJ and bad luck.

 

The outlook was pretty good, not perfect.....but unfortunately, the one aspect in which we are most invested, snowfall, failed miserably in this area....others I nailed it.

I am more specific with regard to snowfall than many seasonal outlooks because I find the variance intriguing, but I understand that sometimes it will make my work seem better than it really was like last year, and seem underwhelming when it was really quite good, as was the case this season.

[powderfreak]

Yea, like Scott said.....the STJ was a bit underwhelming, too.

I'm not sure what you want me to tell you.

Snowfall in our region is more closely correlated with precrip, as opposed to temps.....so no, the extremely warm temperatures and respectable snowfall are not mutually exclusive....especially near you.

I expected the warmest December on record, so I'm not sure what else you want.

I have said, Jan and Feb were warmer than expected because the NAO was a no show, and the PV got taken to the shed too late.

 

Whether you want to accept it or not, nuances can account for exotically different snowfall appeals.

This is just the way it is.

Phasing failed when we needed it, succeeded when we needed it to fail, the the PNA positioned as such that the downstream trough was centered too far inland.

How much snow do you think that we would have gotten if that latter Jan/Feb 2015 ridge were positioned 200 miles to the west???

The answer is probably at least 50" less than we received throughout most to sne....more than many places average in a normal season.

Kind of a big deal.

 

I wasn't pointing fingers at you, I never put a forecast out there so I'm not going to straight knock people for doing it.  I like talking about what went wrong just to learn from it.

 

I also haven't read your forecast since probably November or December... and I have to be careful in this thread (as its your forecast thread) but I'm just more commenting on the general "consensus forecast" that was out there at the beginning of the winter.

 

The bad first half was well called for by most, and your analog was the previous warmest December... that's a great call. 

 

Snowfall is a crapshoot, you are right...but I feel like if the temperature forecasts were right and February was -3F and it still didn't snow, we could chalk that up to nuances more than being like +2.5 to +5.5 across New England in February and not snowing.

 

Lack of -NAO... lack of the vortex splitting...sub-tropical jet limping along...something happened that didn't cause the second half to work out as most thought.

 

Like here's the WeatherBell analog composite for what they used for a February forecast.  This seemed to be similar from most vendors.

 

[ORH_wxman]

That does seem to be a gross over-simplification.

If we had a a good -NAO with #supernino, it might have been #supersnowy.

What year was the last #SuperNino? 1997-98. That was #SuperDeep.

You made the mistake of taking his explanation seriously. Do you actually think he looked up past super ninos?

[Damage In Tolland]

I remember when I was writing this back in the autumn and felt so strongly about it.  But I also had such a hope that it would be wrong and Ray/GGW/ others would be right. But man..this came out pretty damn good unfortunately for snow lovers like me

 

BDL

Dec. +3.5

Jan. +2.1

Feb. +1.3

Mor.+0.5

 

Snowfall: 21"

Actual

17.5"

 

ORH

Dec. +3.0

Jan. +2.0

Feb. +1.0

Mor. +0.5

 

Snowfall:

41"

Actual 33"

 

 

BOS

 

Dec +3.6

Jan. +2.5

Feb. +1.2

Mor. +0.9

 

Snowfall

22"

Actual 25.3"

 

KTOL:

 

Dec +3.3

Jan. +2.2

Feb. +1.2

Mor. +0.5

 

Snowfall:

33 "

Actual 31"