Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 When will the snowstorms start hitting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 When will the snowstorms start hitting? We'll probably see a decent storm by the end of January. I think that is a safe bet. The vultures are starting to circle me outlook thread...I love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 My concerns with a dry start are now in the past. Gonna get juicy lucy and volatile from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Not warm enough in Dec...but based on long range guidance..this looks on track overall. if we miss the storm next weekend somehow..I'd halve those snowfall totals I think Winter guess/ideas: BDL Dec. +3.5 Jan. +2.1 Feb. +1.3 Mor.+0.5 Snowfall: 21" ORH Dec. +3.0 Jan. +2.0 Feb. +1.0 Mor. +0.5 Snowfall: 41" BOS Dec +3.6 Jan. +2.5 Feb. +1.2 Mor. +0.9 Snowfall 22" KTOL: Dec +3.3 Jan. +2.2 Feb. +1.2 Mor. +0.5 Snowfall: 33 " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Not warm enough in Dec...but based on long range guidance..this looks on track overall. if we miss the storm next weekend somehow..I'd halve those snowfall totals I think I wouldn't be changing them at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I wouldn't be changing them at this juncture. Hence why I said if we miss the storm next weekend. Not changing anyway..Just saying i would.You don't change your forecast after it's already out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Hence why I said if we miss the storm next weekend. Not changing anyway..Just saying i would.You don't change your forecast after it's already out I'm saying I think it's looking reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 Some of these a$$ clowns getting on me now are going to be the same ones hounding people to interpret models for them.next weekend. Then if we get 15", its all of sudden "great job", even though I have already nailed the pattern thus far....and I do mean, absolutely nailed. Sorry we got porked by unfortunate spacing of shortwaves. Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Well, those folks are hounding people for model interpretations Tough break, but what can you do....there will be others. Still stand by every word of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I think the odds are favoring a full blown ratter here at this point, especially if there isn't a warning event by the end of Feb (BTV). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2016 Author Share Posted January 24, 2016 I think the odds are favoring a full blown ratter here at this point, especially if there isn't a warning event by the end of Feb (BTV). I wouldn't panic too much yet, as frustrating as it is right now. I think it will be a late spring. I'm probably going to need some miller Bs and/or marginal events in order to verify my amounts because I'm running low from NYC points south, and high from SNE points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2016 Author Share Posted January 24, 2016 Mid term review: As has previously been discussed, the extremely mild first half has verified, and the violent change in character of the season, along with the blizzard has, as well. Some verification highlights thus far: The more prominent subtropical jet featured in stronger + ENSO events features a great deal more Miller A type systems. These types of cyclones tend to hit the mid Atlantic harder on average because they need to cover more distance in order to reach us. This extra distance equates to more time for things to go “wrong”, from the sick, twisted perception of a snow mongerer. Miller A cyclones have their origin in the southern stream, or Gulf of Mexico, owing to the subtropical jet, meaning that that increased distance and time between the system and New England introduces a couple of limiting factors that, unlike last season, we should have to contend with very often this year: 1) Increased likelihood for the track to go astray by either dry slotting the region and/or introducing precipitation type issues, or even slipping out to sea. Superstorm of march 12-14, 1993 and Presidents Day 1979 are two such systems. 2) In order to maximize snowfall, you want the system’s closest pass to the south southeast of the area to coincide with the mid level, 850, 700mb lows’ maximum rate of deepening. Should the system “peak” too far to the south, we are left with a “skunked” out, shredded disaster of a precipitation shield, similar to what occurred in the Boxing day 2010 system. As mentioned previously, I expect NewYork City and points south and westward, down the rest of the east coast into the mid atlantic to not only see above average snowfall, but perhaps exceedingly so. They should experience greater positive seasonal snowfall anomalies than observed here in New England. One final note in closing. There will absolutely be a storm/blizzard of historic proportions along the east coast this season.Whether it favors the interior, or coast remains to be seen, but someone will have infrastructure paralyzed for a spell of time. The earlier that takes place, the more likely it is to favor the deep interior. I am confident that it will occur within one of the three following windows: The last week of January, the first 10 days of February, or the first two weeks of March. Perhaps timing may prove erroneous, but an outright failure of this to occur will be considered an abject failure of the Eastern Mass blog as it relates to this particular outlook. The aspect of my outlook that needs the most work in order to verify is snowfall from SNE points northward, especially western and northern New England....and winter temps are no so biased positive after December, that they will finish more above normal than I had anticipated....barring a February 2015 redux, which is highly unlikely Those are my weak points. I like my thoughts moving forward, and still expect an aggregate DJFM -AO/NAO The first of my three major threat periods have come to fruition......time to watch for the next two, and we have a shot to perhaps score a bit early relative to the outlook next weekend...time will tell. Buckle in...should be a fun second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Mid term review: As has previously been discussed, the extremely mild first half has verified, and the violent change in character of the season, along with the blizzard has, as well. Some verification highlights thus far: The more prominent subtropical jet featured in stronger + ENSO events features a great deal more Miller A type systems. These types of cyclones tend to hit the mid Atlantic harder on average because they need to cover more distance in order to reach us. This extra distance equates to more time for things to go “wrong”, from the sick, twisted perception of a snow mongerer. Miller A cyclones have their origin in the southern stream, or Gulf of Mexico, owing to the subtropical jet, meaning that that increased distance and time between the system and New England introduces a couple of limiting factors that, unlike last season, we should have to contend with very often this year: 1) Increased likelihood for the track to go astray by either dry slotting the region and/or introducing precipitation type issues, or even slipping out to sea. Superstorm of march 12-14, 1993 and Presidents Day 1979 are two such systems. 2) In order to maximize snowfall, you want the system’s closest pass to the south southeast of the area to coincide with the mid level, 850, 700mb lows’ maximum rate of deepening. Should the system “peak” too far to the south, we are left with a “skunked” out, shredded disaster of a precipitation shield, similar to what occurred in the Boxing day 2010 system. As mentioned previously, I expect NewYork City and points south and westward, down the rest of the east coast into the mid atlantic to not only see above average snowfall, but perhaps exceedingly so. They should experience greater positive seasonal snowfall anomalies than observed here in New England. One final note in closing. There will absolutely be a storm/blizzard of historic proportions along the east coast this season.Whether it favors the interior, or coast remains to be seen, but someone will have infrastructure paralyzed for a spell of time. The earlier that takes place, the more likely it is to favor the deep interior. I am confident that it will occur within one of the three following windows: The last week of January, the first 10 days of February, or the first two weeks of March. Perhaps timing may prove erroneous, but an outright failure of this to occur will be considered an abject failure of the Eastern Mass blog as it relates to this particular outlook. The aspect of my outlook that needs the most work in order to verify is snowfall from SNE points northward, especially western and northern New England....and winter temps are no so biased positive after December, that they will finish more above normal than I had anticipated....barring a February 2015 redux, which is highly unlikely Those are my weak points. I like my thoughts moving forward, and still expect an aggregate DJFM -AO/NAO The first of my three major threat periods have come to fruition......time to watch for the next two, and we have a shot to perhaps score a bit early relative to the outlook next weekend...time will tell. Buckle in...should be a fun second half. Very well written........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 I had my one real scare of the season last week, but things appear back on track. If the two blizzards had left anyone not convinced that this isn't your grandweenie's super el nino, than the coming incarnation of Jan 2004 should do the trick. Two of have my three of my two windows have come and gone with blizzards flirting with us at the leading edge of window one, and to conclude window 2 yesterday. Hoping to score that big dog in the first half of March, as John hinted at last night. Pretty pleased thus far, and I like my chances of winning the SNE League. Magic # of 37.5 in the Wilmington division. MA division is already clinched, but it maybe time to start playing the youth in the NNE division .....we'll see because I expect a late season. Lets do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 The difference this season is going to be whiffing on a 30" blizzard, but it is what it is. Never recovered. Absolutely disgraceful and humiliating performance in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 The difference this season is going to be whiffing on a 30" blizzard, but it is what it is. Never recovered. Absolutely disgraceful and humiliating performance in NE. Ray, see my post on H5 comparison in this thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47891-latter-februarymarch-2016-pattern/page-5? It's disappointing that New England wasn't able to capitalize on some of those windows of opportunity that we had to date. The major fly in the ointment that prevented the deeper negatives was the NAO behavior and to a much lesser extent the AO. You can see on those 500mb maps that the Pacific PNA / EPO progression most closely resembles 1958 of all the super Nino analogs. And the Arctic heights were certainly better than the super Nino's (except for 1958 of course). With stronger NAO blocking, this likely would have been a phenomenal winter up through SNE. March can still produce, so we'll see how much of a comeback can be made. But, it is what it is. Research continues and lessons continue to be learned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 Ray, see my post on H5 comparison in this thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47891-latter-februarymarch-2016-pattern/page-5? It's disappointing that New England wasn't able to capitalize on some of those windows of opportunity that we had to date. The major fly in the ointment that prevented the deeper negatives was the NAO behavior and to a much lesser extent the AO. You can see on those 500mb maps that the Pacific PNA / EPO progression most closely resembles 1958 of all the super Nino analogs. And the Arctic heights were certainly better than the super Nino's (except for 1958 of course). With stronger NAO blocking, this likely would have been a phenomenal winter up through SNE. March can still produce, so we'll see how much of a comeback can be made. But, it is what it is. Research continues and lessons continue to be learned. The NAO killed us, but truth be told, it was an the ill fated queef of a french logger's wife up in Quebec that doomed my outlook. That blizzard hit, I nail it...but it didn't, so the outlook sucked. Those are the breaks......I don't care that I nailed H5 for the most part....we don't forecast for hot air balloons. I failed in relation to sensible weather. Shame on me for not having factored karma/regression considering last year's other worldly luck...and the past several years in general, truth be told. I thought about it, but didn't, so I missed it. This was entirely predictable. I did hit on the mid atl focus, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 The NAO killed us, but truth be told, it was an the ill fated queef of a french logger's wife up in Quebec that doomed my outlook. That blizzard hit, I nail it...but it didn't, so the outlook sucked. Those are the breaks......I don't care that I nailed H5 for the most part....we don't forecast for hit air balloons. I failed in relation to sensible weather. Shame on me for not having factored karma/regression considering last year's other worldly luck...and the past several years in general, truth be told. I thought about it, but didn't, so I missed it. This was entirely predictable. I did hit on the mid atl focus, though. solid work... when does the 2016-2017 outlook drop?? hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 solid work... when does the 2016-2017 outlook drop?? hahaha 9 months. I'm intrigued.....weak nina maybe....neg QBO, residual STJ....hmmmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 The NAO killed us, but truth be told, it was an the ill fated queef of a french logger's wife up in Quebec that doomed my outlook. That blizzard hit, I nail it...but it didn't, so the outlook sucked. Those are the breaks......I don't care that I nailed H5 for the most part....we don't forecast for hot air balloons. I failed in relation to sensible weather. Shame on me for not having factored karma/regression considering last year's other worldly luck...and the past several years in general, truth be told. I thought about it, but didn't, so I missed it. This was entirely predictable. I did hit on the mid atl focus, though. I hear you. Though I'm not a big believer in "since last year(s) was/were great, this year should be bad." Some of the tropospheric indicators such as the SAI have really been suffering recently, IMO. However, after doing more research concerning this winter's issues, I'm definitely going to be prioritizing my list differently next year. If I had to forecast this winter again, I'd call for a strong vortex. That's the beauty of the LR though. Hopefully improve future forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 I hear you. Though I'm not a big believer in "since last year(s) was/were great, this year should be bad." Some of the tropospheric indicators such as the SAI have really been suffering recently, IMO. However, after doing more research concerning this winter's issues, I'm definitely going to be prioritizing my list differently next year. If I had to forecast this winter again, I'd call for a strong vortex. That's the beauty of the LR though. Hopefully improve future forecasts. What are you going to prioritize more? QBO? Well, it is a fact that eventually that will even out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Maybe we can dud next year too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Solid Damage In Tolland, on 01 Nov 2015 - 07:38 AM, said: Winter guess/ideas: BDL Dec. +3.5 Jan. +2.1 Feb. +1.3 Mor.+0.5 Snowfall: 21" ORH Dec. +3.0 Jan. +2.0 Feb. +1.0 Mor. +0.5 Snowfall: 41" BOS Dec +3.6 Jan. +2.5 Feb. +1.2 Mor. +0.9 Snowfall 22" KTOL: Dec +3.3 Jan. +2.2 Feb. +1.2 Mor. +0.5 Snowfall: 33 " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2016 Author Share Posted February 25, 2016 Yea, you ultimately did better than I did after conceding defeat last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2016 Author Share Posted February 25, 2016 Maybe we can dud next year too. It could, but I see no reason to be resigned to that......I know you're busting ballz, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Though I'm not a big believer in "since last year(s) was/were great, this year should be bad." What do you use then, science? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2016 Author Share Posted February 26, 2016 What do you use then, science? If you do not understand how chaos and variance play into the snowfall element of meteorology, then you really should get a clue. There are seasons like 2012 that had a far more meager atmospheric canvas with which to work from, and yet this one has been just as bad in the snowfall department is some areas. Guess what...1998 was twice as good as this season was in many areas, so I'd love to hear how that can be explained from a strictly "science" perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 If you do not understand how chaos and variance play into the snowfall element meteorology, then you really should get a clue. There are seasons like 2012 that had a far more meager atmospheric canvas with which to work from, and yet this one has been just as bad in the snowfall department. Guess what...1998 was twice as good as this season was in many areas, so I'd love to hear how that can be explained from a strictly "science" perspective. I agree with everything you said here, which is why including a "blizzard or bust" clause in a seasonal forecast is a bit comical even if one did happen to occur but not in your backyard, as was your proclamation in the fall that your backyard had a better chance at a repeat of last year than it did seeing under 45". But we seem to be saying the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2016 Author Share Posted February 26, 2016 I agree with everything you said here, which is why including a "blizzard or bust" clause in a seasonal forecast is a bit comical even if one did happen to occur but not in your backyard, as was your proclamation in the fall that your backyard had a better chance at a repeat of last year than it did seeing under 45". But we seem to be saying the same thing. I felt like gambling because I really liked the odds this season given the playing field, and I won. The only thing comical is ridiculing that success. I absolutely owned the east coast from NYC points south with this outlook....case closed. I also feel as though I hit on the overall pattern progression with the exception of the NAO, which coupled with some bad luck, killed my snowfall forecast north of NYC. The call was not comical because I felt like doing it, and acknowledged the risks taken. Live by it, die by it. Nailed the blizzard and NYC points south, chocked points north. Its dumb to detract from the blizzard verification, sorry.....I put an enormous amount of time and effort into that, and I hit it. Period. I blew in NE....period. Is it "comical" to engage in fantasy sports? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2016 Author Share Posted February 26, 2016 I don't remember saying that MBY had a better shot of repeating last year than seeing 45", but if I did, then that was both comical and dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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