Winter Outlook 2016

[powderfreak]

What is it with you and the one month winter gibberish???

Heaven forbid we only have one epic month.

I didn't say it wouldn't snow outside of that window. So what if I get 35 in Feb and only 12 or 15 in March?

To each their own, hopefully we can have a more sustained winter than that. I'm not even sure what the argument is or if there's an argument.

[powderfreak]

I'd take last year's 1 month wonder

lol good luck. But I'd probably feel differently if that happened to me last winter too.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just thought I would toss this in ,

 

You have to love a model that screams torch over the next 90 days  but whispers gas up the snowblower over the next 45 

 

The model is so bad , both of the CFS scenarios are wrong .

 

It seems you're presumption is that warmer than normal means less snow? 

 

WRONG. 

 

Not to be rude ... (that WRONG is hyperbole) but as I and others have hammered ...for 10 years now, at our latitude, warmer than normal doesn't correlate as well with seasonal snow totals as one may think. It does, of course, correlate, but it's not black and white like that. 

 

Take this November, it's likely to go down warmer than normal, and we have a snow chance here over eastern New England, ANA style, tonight.  You can't say warmer than normal November (of all months, being warmer than DJF at that) --> lack of snow.  

[powderfreak]

It seems you're presumption is that warmer than normal means less snow?

WRONG.

Not to be rude ... (that WRONG is hyperbole) but as I and others have hammered ...for 10 years now, at our latitude, warmer than normal doesn't correlate as well with seasonal snow totals as one may think. It does, of course, correlate, but it's not black and white like that.

Take this November, it's likely to go down warmer than normal, and we have a snow chance here over eastern New England, ANA style, tonight. You can't say warmer than normal November (of all months, being warmer than DJF at that) --> lack of snow.

Recent confirmation bias has me believe that warmer is almost better. But Will is pretty good at dismantling that notion.

We will be below normal snow this month most likely, but in the warmest November since 1954 on Mt Mansfield they still pulled an 8" event this month. Below normal but a shut out like a +8 month would make you think.

[Typhoon Tip]

Recent confirmation bias has me believe that warmer is almost better. But Will is pretty good at dismantling that notion.

We will be below normal snow this month most likely, but in the warmest November since 1954 on Mt Mansfield they still pulled an 8" event this month. Below normal but a shut out like a +8 month would make you think.

 

Perhaps case in point? 

 

Here is the current 21 -days worth of climato prelims at one climo site in the Great Lakes that just clocked perhaps the biggest November snow storm in that regions history:

DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================

 1  63  44  54   7  11   0 0.00  0.0    0 10.3 20 250   M    M   2        23 250
 2  72  47  60  13   5   0 0.00  0.0    0 10.5 22 210   M    M   3        29 220
 3  70  44  57  11   8   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.3 17 180   M    M   0 1      22 170
 4  71  48  60  14   5   0 0.00  0.0    0  8.2 18 200   M    M   6 12     23 200
 5  70  59  65  20   0   0    T  0.0    0 16.1 31 200   M    M   8 1      41 190
 6  65  41  53   8  12   0 0.16  0.0    0 14.8 30 270   M    M   8 1      39 260
 7  53  35  44   0  21   0 0.00  0.0    0  9.6 22 290   M    M   2        28 270
 8  52  28  40  -4  25   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.3 13 210   M    M   0        16 210
 9  56  29  43  -1  22   0 0.00  0.0    0  2.3 10  90   M    M   2 18     13  50
10  56  32  44   1  21   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.8 10 230   M    M   2 1      12 240
11  63  36  50   7  15   0 0.42  0.0    0 14.3 36 170   M    M   6 13     46 150
12  56  42  49   7  16   0    T  0.0    0 23.5 36 250   M    M   9 1      50 240
13  47  32  40  -2  25   0 0.00  0.0    0 15.2 31 290   M    M   3        43 280
14  57  25  41   0  24   0 0.00  0.0    0  8.6 21 200   M    M   2        26 210
15  64  44  54  13  11   0 0.00  0.0    0 10.3 20 220   M    M   2        25 230
16  57  43  50  10  15   0 0.12  0.0    0 12.1 24 180   M    M   8 1      29 180
17  61  47  54  14  11   0 0.63  0.0    0 17.6 28 170   M    M   9 1      35 170
18  62  47  55  16  10   0 0.20  0.0    0 20.7 38 190   M    M   9 1      49 200
19  47  35  41   2  24   0    T    M    0 18.7 33 250   M    M   4        46 240
20  40  31  36  -2  29   0 0.28  4.2    0  8.5 17 280   M    M   6 1      23  60
21  33  18  26 -12  39   0 1.16  7.0    5 12.1 29 340   M    M   9 129    35 330

Add up/n terms that departure column, ...that's over +5 T for month.  They may not end up that way (or may, who knows) but this is nice example of false gospels - 

[40/70 Benchmark]

lol good luck. But I'd probably feel differently if that happened to me last winter too.

My point is that just because one month stands out doesn't mean that we don't snow the balance of the season.

 

All said was that I expect only one month to feature an extremely favorable mean aggregate pattern.

Obviously at our latitude we do not need need multiple January 1996, of Feb 2015s in the same season to do ok.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It seems you're presumption is that warmer than normal means less snow? 

 

WRONG. 

 

Not to be rude ... (that WRONG is hyperbole) but as I and others have hammered ...for 10 years now, at our latitude, warmer than normal doesn't correlate as well with seasonal snow totals as one may think. It does, of course, correlate, but it's not black and white like that. 

 

Take this November, it's likely to go down warmer than normal, and we have a snow chance here over eastern New England, ANA style, tonight.  You can't say warmer than normal November (of all months, being warmer than DJF at that) --> lack of snow.  

Snowfall is more closely correlate to precip as opposed to temps from roughly Kevin's latitude points northward.

[powderfreak]

My point is that just because one month stands out doesn't mean that we don't snow the balance of the season.

 

All said was that I expect only one month to feature an extremely favorable mean aggregate pattern.

Obviously at our latitude we do not need need multiple January 1996, of Feb 2015s in the same season to do ok.

 

Yeah fair enough.  I wasn't even really directing anything at your outlook per se, just that hopefully we have some more fun than just one month.  That's all.  I think we will as there will be snow events even in a warm pattern.  Heck as long as we get the precip I think we'll be fine.  '97-98 averaged like +4 up here but was a huge winter for the mountains.

[PB GFI]

It seems you're presumption is that warmer than normal means less snow?

WRONG.

Not to be rude ... (that WRONG is hyperbole) but as I and others have hammered ...for 10 years now, at our latitude, warmer than normal doesn't correlate as well with seasonal snow totals as one may think. It does, of course, correlate, but it's not black and white like that.

Take this November, it's likely to go down warmer than normal, and we have a snow chance here over eastern New England, ANA style, tonight. You can't say warmer than normal November (of all months, being warmer than DJF at that) --> lack of snow.

Sorry for the late response I just saw this. Let me tell what is i think is RIGHT.

The CFS is a bad climate model at a distance and the point was it is not to be bought.

Especially in the out months.

I wasn't showing it because AN temps N of the pike showed cant yield snow , ( I made that argument in one of my earlier posts the euros plus 1 and wet is a positive for you guys ) but the CFS is plus 3 at KNYC and DC but puts down 1 to 2 feet of snow ? , so from 40 on S it argues with itself .

I was not validating a 10 to 1 snow map but that the model which is a blowtorch paints record December snows in the very same areas .

57 63 65 77 09 were all warm NINO November's and they all turned out BN @ 2M for the winter , I am not sure where BOX used for that stat on Friday.

Lastly the point I was trying to make was there were those were touting the CFS torch idea , but ignored it's 45 day snow totals .

I found that odd.... no not really.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Sorry for the late response I just saw this. Let me tell what is i think is RIGHT.

The CFS is a bad climate model at a distance and the point was it is not to be bought.

Especially in the out months.

I wasn't showing it because AN temps N of the pike showed cant yield snow , ( I made that argument in one of my earlier posts the euros plus 1 and wet is a positive for you guys ) but the CFS is plus 3 at KNYC and DC but puts down 1 to 2 feet of snow ? , so from 40 on S it argues with itself .

I was not validating a 10 to 1 snow map but that the model which is a blowtorch paints record December snows in the very same areas .

57 63 65 77 09 were all warm NINO November's and they all turned out BN @ 2M for the winter , I am not sure where BOX used for that stat on Friday.

Lastly the point I was trying to make was there were those were touting the XFS torch idea , but ignored it's 45 day snow totals .

I found that odd.... no not really.

BOX used the all warm Novembers period.

Not el niño seasons, which makes zero sense.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Everything continues on track:

[medmax]

Looks like the mainstream weather forecasters are starting to have some serious doubt:

 

 

http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/january-march-outlook-2016-noaa-wsi

 

Crawford said there is now "increasing doubt that a sustained cold pattern will ever set up across the Northeast this winter," based on the latest forecast guidance.​

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like the mainstream weather forecasters are starting to have some serious doubt:

 

 

http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/january-march-outlook-2016-noaa-wsi

I couldn't care less.

My outlook is doing better than last seasons, thus far.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Winter 2015-'16, much like its predecessor, will begin tame, and then about face and violently change character. Indeed, the earlier benign affect of a season once seemingly destined for a gentle transition to spring, will begin to display it's true bipolar tendencies around the third week of January, or thereabouts, and should be evident by the time that the month draws to a close. It is anticipated that the AO/NAO will average at least somewhat negative as a mean aggregate for the period of December through March. Aggressively biased positive early in, with perhaps one notable period in December when we may encounter one significant, but rogue winter storm; however the greatest impact would likely be to the west of our region for any such storm, and perhaps significantly so. Eastern Mass will be relatively void of adverse winter weather through the new year. The EPO will also likely average positive early on, owed to the potent GOA vortex slinging air masses of Pacific origin throughout the country. It is the positioning of this vortex that is of absolute greatest importance in seasons of this ilk. As illustrated in the chain of graphics below, it expected that this feature will retrograde over the course of the season, as el nino climatology dictates that they are likely to do. This is illustrated quite splendidly and adeptly in the schematics of how I anticipate the season to progress, posted below:

 

November had looked to feature a fairly benign pattern when I had initially examined it a month ago, and that has verified over the course of the first third of the month, to say the least. Atlantic and arctic regimes remain hostile for winter weather. VERY IMPORTANT Aleutian low developing near Aleutian Islands

 

By next month, December, it is anticipated that the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) Low will set up shop WEST of the area outlined in the November schematic above, although still perhaps a bit to close to AK. The Atlantic also remains hostile, so we are still mild, but the seeds of change are planted for another rough back half of winter Depicted to the left is the GOA low, Retrograding and intensifying. NAO still staves off much of the cold.

 

(January) Depicted to the left is the door swinging shut on season one. GOA Low already in good spot and only getting better. Retrograding and intensifying. NAO still staves off much of the cold.

 

 

Nothing is worthy of melting....I can't post the associated images here, but everything is on track.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

So far so good.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll be updating this bad Larry on NYE.

Obviously the cat is out of the bag at this point, and all of you now know what some of us have since last summer, but this thread is headed to the promised land.

I hope folks learn to not generalize every strong el nino from here on out.

We have such a minuscule sample size to work with. 

 

As I said in the outlook, this is in fact "a new breed"-

[CoastalWx]

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, man...slap me with a hot bun.

I'm ready lol

[CoastalWx]

I know you are. Let's see where we are at the end of the month.

[Damage In Tolland]

I'll be updating this bad Larry on NYE.

Obviously the cat is out of the bag at this point, and all of you now know what some of us have since last summer, but this thread is headed to the promised land.

I hope folks learn to not generalize every strong el nino from here on out.

We have such a minuscule sample size to work with.

As I said in the outlook, this is in fact "a new breed"-

I'd urge you to wait a bit. There's some rumblings going on

[mreaves]

I'd urge you to wait a bit. There's some rumblings going on

Why would he wait for "rumblings"? His forecast is a product of his own study of indices and readings, not a regurgitation of others thoughts. Ray puts out his thoughts for everyone to see and makes adjustments as new data may warrant. He doesn't simply re-tweet the latest model interpretation. Even though most of these type of forecasts are too dense and complex for me to completely understand, I admire those with the skill to produce seasonal forecasts and the cojones to make it public.

[Ginx snewx]

I'd urge you to wait a bit. There's some rumblings going on

rhea? Shouldn't have shook that guys hand

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, if I gave a flying vortex who rumble what, then I wouldn't have written this...much less stuck it out.

 

The only flags that I can even fathom are a return to RNA conditions mid month, which I have been advertising for a while, as I never expected the pattern to lock in until about the third week of January...and the resistant NAO, which I expect to conform by the end of January.

It won't last this regime; it can't, and it won't.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looked for a bit as though things were going to run ahead of schedule, but it was a false alarm....thankfully I never pulled the trigger on that update.

Original thoughts still appear largely on tack.

Anyway, while we sit and wait....December verification:

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com

[Randy4Confluence]

Looked for a bit as though things were going to run ahead of schedule, but it was a false alarm....thankfully I never pulled the trigger on that update.

Original thoughts still appear largely on tack.

Anyway, while we sit and wait....December verification:

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com

You're driving the bus so far... Right on target. Good luck with the 2nd half comeback ( not sarcasm but sincerity), I hope you're right.

[medmax]

Still rootin for ya, tiger.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Verifying quite nicely imo.

[NorEastermass128]

Verifying quite nicely imo.

When do we turn on the snow guns?  

A slightly below average winter would feel pretty snowy at this point...

[40/70 Benchmark]

When do we turn on the snow guns?  

A slightly below average winter would feel pretty snowy at this point...

Anytime.....we are fair game.

This coming weekend was not a failure of the pattern.

It was bad luck.

Nothin has changed in my mind....big second half incoming.

[powderfreak]

Anytime.....we are fair game.

This coming weekend was not a failure of the pattern.

It was bad luck.

Nothin has changed in my mind....big second half incoming.

 

Here's to really hoping you are right...to get out of the basement of winter seasons so far up here, haha.