CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Yea, I know.....I think that is the way to go. I said that about a month ago and if anything, I may feel even that could be too bearish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I'm not sure why people get so uptight over this winter forecast stuff, but when you place New England on the edge of positive precip and negative temp anomalies and chuck the last two winters (plus '02-'03) as analogs, it's definitely tipping the scales towards cold and snow. All I was saying is that I think calling 1+2 as something other than a strong anomaly is mis-characterizing it. I don't think it submarines our winter in and of itself, but it felt like the WeatherBell outlook tossed it just a little too carelessly. I think part of the problem is that some people may see the actual values of different regions and think that could be bad or good for a specific region. However, you need to look at all regions and see how warm and wide these anomalies are. I don't think it matters if 1-2 is 2.5C or 4C. The whole area is on fire. I look at this and say, the pacific better be decent or we got 32.1F coastals up our fannies. Lucky for us the anomalies are spread out so we may have a decent Pacifoc later on winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 I said that about a month ago and if anything, I may feel even that could be too bearish. Yea, I may, ironically enough, end up a bit too low in the snowfall department.....but I hedged a bit towards some bad juju, as we are indebted to the karma bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Nino 1 2 was not 28c at this time in 97. It climatological warms through the winter. It didn't reach that until January.Bingo and expected to continue to cool this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Yea, I may, ironically enough, end up a bit too low in the snowfall department.....but I hedged a bit towards some bad juju, as we are indebted to the karma bank.Part of me ponders that next winter is probably a higher confidence for a ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 I'm not sure why people get so uptight over this winter forecast stuff, but when you place New England on the edge of positive precip and negative temp anomalies and chuck the last two winters (plus '02-'03) as analogs, it's definitely tipping the scales towards cold and snow. All I was saying is that I think calling 1+2 as something other than a strong anomaly is mis-characterizing it. I don't think it submarines our winter in and of itself, but it felt like the WeatherBell outlook tossed it just a little too carelessly. I wasn't upset.......just the way I post. Maybe a smiley would have helped... Yea, he may have simplified things a bit too much, but I thought it was fine. We were "on the edge"......not immersed. Hence normal.....I think he was trying to convey the idea that this is not like your parents' strong el nino....I agree that '03 and '10 were not the best choices, though. True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 Part of me ponders that next winter is probably a higher confidence for a ratter. Agreed. Already thought of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I will stick to 8 weeks,this LR stuff is fraught with Nuance. Snow totals being number 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 I will stick to 8 weeks,this LR stuff is fraught with Nuance. Snow totals being number 1 Part of me wonders about second half suppression, but that would be a first for a strong el nino. May just act to ensure that we don't go blockbuster, like south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I wasn't upset.......just the way I post. Maybe a smiley would have helped... Yea, he may have simplified things a bit too much, but I thought it was fine. We were "on the edge"......not immersed. Hence normal.....I think he was trying to convey the idea that this is not like your parents' strong el nino....I agree that '03 and '10 were not the best choices, though. True. We're all pretty much saying the same thing. On the edge, playing with fire a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 We're all pretty much saying the same thing. On the edge, playing with fire a bit. Yep, agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I will stick to 8 weeks,this LR stuff is fraught with Nuance. Snow totals being number 1 Anyone with a high confidence snowfall forecast for any winter is just trying to sell you snake oil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Which probably means it won't work out somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Anyone with a high confidence snowfall forecast for any winter is just trying to sell you snake oil.if I have one crystal ball thought its I expect a 1-25'year like superstorm to affect the country,what side we are on who knows,seems logical these great opposing contrasts of SAE caused cold cryosphere and a super anomalous Pacific would create the right ingredients for a triple phaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 if I have one crystal ball thought its I expect a 1-25'year like superstorm to affect the country,what side we are on who knows,seems logical these great opposing contrasts of SAE caused cold cryosphere and a super anomalous Pacific would create the right ingredients for a triple phaser. James, is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 if I have one crystal ball thought its I expect a 1-25'year like superstorm to affect the country,what side we are on who knows,seems logical these great opposing contrasts of SAE caused cold cryosphere and a super anomalous Pacific would create the right ingredients for a triple phaser. Absolutely....elevated risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Absolutely....elevated risk. We are due for OES on SE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 We are due for OES on SE winds. You know what I mean. These types of gradients are insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Why is it every time we are having a good discussion you feel the need to drop an.old tired joke in. Up the post count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 You know what I mean. This these types of gradients are insane. I know...just getting Steve's depends in a bunch. You really need to get an arctic s/w to get into the mix for a real stem winder, but I do think we could be prone to big Miller A events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 I know...just getting Steve's depends in a bunch. You really need to get an arctic s/w to get into the mix for a real stem winder, but I do think we could be prone to big Miller A events. I think the arctic may be more involved during Feb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I know...just getting Steve's depends in a bunch. You really need to get an arctic s/w to get into the mix for a real stem winder, but I do think we could be prone to big Miller A events. aint happening James. ALL I ASK IS TO HAVE ENOUGH SNOW FOR BRYCE TO USE HIS SLED ON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I think the arctic may be more involved during Feb...case in.point end of month only takes a transient period to unleash the hounds at any time in any month. Skeptical of canonical progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 case in.point end of month only takes a transient period to unleash the hounds at any time in any month. Skeptical of canonical progression. We could steal an event in December, but I think any protracted windows are reserved for the 2nd half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I know...just getting Steve's depends in a bunch. You really need to get an arctic s/w to get into the mix for a real stem winder, but I do think we could be prone to big Miller A events. Great for highlighting forecast inconsistencies up and down the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Part of me ponders that next winter is probably a higher confidence for a ratter. Strong Nina wth positive NAO. Could be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 Great for highlighting forecast inconsistencies up and down the East Coast. What is? Miller As? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Strong Nina wth positive NAO. Could be ugly.how about a strong Nina with a neg EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 What is? Miller As? Oh yeah. It's nearly impossible to agree across CWA borders once you start involving WFOs beyond our New England region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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