Winter Outlook 2016

[powderfreak]

Enjoy, guys.

This forum played as large a role in the damn thing as I did:

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com

 

Awesome.  I'm only part way through but something that stuck out to me was in the opening paragraph:

 

"I tend to utilize the inverse of the traditional methodology in that I place more emphasis on snowfall rather than temperatures, which if anything is even more challenging since snowfall is subject to such a high degree of variance."

 

I never really thought about it before, but its true that the vast majority of seasonal outlooks are revolving around temperature departures.  Snowfall is sometimes like a bonus guess at the end of the forecast, but you just don't see outlooks that focus much more on the snowfall side of things rather than temperature.  Snowfall is often an after-thought that might be speculated on in one paragraph, not the main point of the outlook.

[powderfreak]

Even the toys themselves add value within that context.

 

Yeah a yard covered in snow can look the same whether its 12" or 48" if there's nothing there to give context to. 

 

Were you about to fall over when you took that photo though?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Awesome.  I'm only part way through but something that stuck out to me was in the opening paragraph:

 

"I tend to utilize the inverse of the traditional methodology in that I place more emphasis on snowfall rather than temperatures, which if anything is even more challenging since snowfall is subject to such a high degree of variance."

 

I never really thought about it before, but its true that the vast majority of seasonal outlooks are revolving around temperature departures.  Snowfall is sometimes like a bonus guess at the end of the forecast, but you just don't see outlooks that focus much more on the snowfall side of things rather than temperature.  Snowfall is often an after-thought that might be speculated on in one paragraph, not the main point of the outlook.

Its because the vast majority have their motive derived from energy interests...that, and the variance deters many from bothering.

[Damage In Tolland]

you getting less snow than Kev

I'll be happier than one of your curls in gerry curl gel if I get anywhere near 60-70 inches. I'm planning on half that or less

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll be happier than one of your curls in gerry curl gel if I get anywhere near 60-70 inches. I'm planning on half that or less

Actually, I have you at 70-80".

[Ginx snewx]

not reading

this Buds for you

 

"I will conclude this winter 2016 Outlook with the parting message that if you happen to be one of those "equal chances" disciples, who attempt to affix a gross generalization to each and every powerful +ENSO event, then I suggest you seek therapy for that acute ENSO PTSD affliction with great haste because you just may be "forced" into reaching for that shovel after all."

[Ginx snewx]

I'll be happier than one of your curls in gerry curl gel if I get anywhere near 60-70 inches. I'm planning on half that or less

Who knows, you could get 10-15. I plan on taking things one week at a time. no expectations while you rub oil on the dome stressing over a final total.

[alwaysready126]

not reading

thanks for letting us know.  SMH.

[40/70 Benchmark]

thanks for letting us know.  SMH.

He knows his stuff, he's just a habitual ball-buster.

[forkyfork]

this Buds for you

"I will conclude this winter 2016 Outlook with the parting message that if you happen to be one of those "equal chances" disciples, who attempt to affix a gross generalization to each and every powerful +ENSO event, then I suggest you seek therapy for that acute ENSO PTSD affliction with great haste because you just may be "forced" into reaching for that shovel after all."

cold and snowly like i expected

i knew i didn't have to read it

[powderfreak]

I meant a KU....not necessarily Super storm '93, of the blizzard or '78.

It maybe a hugger, too.

 

If you take all the big coastal storms over the past 10 years, the East Coast from the mid-Atlantic to New England has probably averaged at least 1 per winter (a couple winters have zero, but a bunch of winters have 2 or even 3). 

 

This is probably not as much of a stretch as some folks may think, calling for 1 big east coast snow event, either interior or coast.

 

Loved the write up, just getting to the end now.  Where did those images from the "forecast" section come from?  Like the ones titled January 2016, February 2016, etc?

[40/70 Benchmark]

cold and snowly like i expected

i knew i didn't have to read it

Actually, its dead-nuts normal here.

[Ginx snewx]

He knows his stuff, he's just a habitual ball-buster.

I wish he would express his thoughts, a lot of people say he knows his stuff. All I see is snark and disrespect, that was funny...... in 2002 when he was just a kid.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If you take all the big coastal storms over the past 10 years, the East Coast from the mid-Atlantic to New England has probably averaged at least 1 per winter (a couple winters have zero, but a bunch of winters have 2 or even 3). 

 

This is probably not as much of a stretch as some folks may think, calling for 1 big east coast snow event, either interior or coast.

 

Loved the write up, just getting to the end now.  Where did those images from the "forecast" section come from?  Like the ones titled January 2016, February 2016, etc?

EURO.

[Ginx snewx]

Actually, its dead-nuts normal here.

And certainly not cold

[40/70 Benchmark]

I wish he would express his thoughts, a lot of people say he knows his stuff. All I see is snark and disrespect, that was funny...... in 2002 when he was just a kid.

He PMs me from time to time before events.....good analysis.

Just different on the boards.

I think he has a little "reverse psych" Kevin in him, too.

[Ginx snewx]

EURO.

Interesting, did you see this. Pretty much mirrors your ideas

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/analogs.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

Interesting, did you see this. Pretty much mirrors your ideas

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/analogs.html

I didn't rip and read, though....the EURO makes sense to me.

The 2m are warm obviously.

[ORH_wxman]

Awesome.  I'm only part way through but something that stuck out to me was in the opening paragraph:

 

"I tend to utilize the inverse of the traditional methodology in that I place more emphasis on snowfall rather than temperatures, which if anything is even more challenging since snowfall is subject to such a high degree of variance."

 

I never really thought about it before, but its true that the vast majority of seasonal outlooks are revolving around temperature departures.  Snowfall is sometimes like a bonus guess at the end of the forecast, but you just don't see outlooks that focus much more on the snowfall side of things rather than temperature.  Snowfall is often an after-thought that might be speculated on in one paragraph, not the main point of the outlook.

 

 

LR forecasting really started professionally in the energy sector. So it is no surprise that temperatures were always the focus.

 

For most winter lover though, snowfall is the main variable they care about, not temperatures. While the two are obviously correlated to some extent (much moreso down south of us), very few winter enthusiasts will be jumping for joy when another 1980s cold and snowless winter comes along. They'll take another 2012-2013 any day of the week over the 1980s abominations.

[Ginx snewx]

LR forecasting really started professionally in the energy sector. So it is no surprise that temperatures were always the focus.

 

For most winter lover though, snowfall is the main variable they care about, not temperatures. While the two are obviously correlated to some extent (much moreso down south of us), very few winter enthusiasts will be jumping for joy when another 1980s cold and snowless winter comes along. They'll take another 2012-2013 any day of the week over the 1980s abominations.

Perhaps the earliest seasonal forecasts were for precipitation for agricultural interests, as the shift to energy analysis evolved more and more forecasts concentrated on HDD. 

[ORH_wxman]

Perhaps the earliest seasonal forecasts were for precipitation for agricultural interests, as the shift to energy analysis evolved more and more forecasts concentrated on HDD. 

 

There was basically no skill in LR forecasts before the 1980s...so it didn't really become a wider scope profession until the past couple decades.

[JC-CT]

Your mobile is the issue.

 

I did not criticize the theory, I criticized his unwillingness to acknowledge last year's shortcoming. 

Good methodology, bad season...just admit it instead of distorting reality.

One failed season in this business does not significantly its validity.

Perceptions, sure, but those are in fact misperceptions

 

I suggest you read it again on a laptop because you have missed it.

 

The SAI has only been in use for a few years, so one year makes up a pretty significant percentage of its predictive test results. Also note that I didn't say you criticized the theory, I said you "you spent a lot of time in the 2014-15 recap criticizing Cohen's postseason victory claims." I then added my own personal opinion, which is that maybe you could have been a bit more "critical" of, or in my words expressed less confidence in, the theory.

 

And I wasn't trying to be a jerk about the formatting issues, but the issue is not my mobile. This is a screenshot from my desktop, which I tried using both Chrome and IE with the same result:

 

[dryslot]

I wish he would express his thoughts, a lot of people say he knows his stuff. All I see is snark and disrespect, that was funny...... in 2002 when he was just a kid.

 

This

[powderfreak]

LR forecasting really started professionally in the energy sector. So it is no surprise that temperatures were always the focus.

 

For most winter lover though, snowfall is the main variable they care about, not temperatures. While the two are obviously correlated to some extent (much moreso down south of us), very few winter enthusiasts will be jumping for joy when another 1980s cold and snowless winter comes along. They'll take another 2012-2013 any day of the week over the 1980s abominations.

 

Yeah makes sense.  I was thinking more for even the like local news stations that do these forecasts...they can't be doing any of it for energy or agricultural reasons, right?  Seems like entertainment more than anything.  I like the idea of more seasonal forecasts for snowfall, but I can also see why folks wouldn't want to.  I certainly wouldn't want to, lol.  One or two big events or big misses and your forecast can be rendered useless.

 

And yeah, cold without snow is fun for a few days, lol.  Not a whole winter. 

[dryslot]

Great job Raymond, Nothing wrong with normal

[powderfreak]

Great job Raymond, Nothing wrong with normal

 

My wife tells me that all the time. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

The SAI has only been in use for a few years, so one year makes up a pretty significant percentage of its predictive test results. Also note that I didn't say you criticized the theory, I said you "you spent a lot of time in the 2014-15 recap criticizing Cohen's postseason victory claims." I then added my own personal opinion, which is that maybe you could have been a bit more "critical" of, or in my words expressed less confidence in, the theory.

 

And I wasn't trying to be a jerk about the formatting issues, but the issue is not my mobile. This is a screenshot from my desktop, which I tried using both Chrome and IE with the same result:

 

.....And it's been pretty damn good in those few years.

My confidence in the theory is not shaken, so I did not feel the need to express that it was.

If  you read thoroughly, I explicitly stated what I feel interfered last year.

There are no independent variables here.

Its a tool, like everything else.

 

No offense taken...but I do not see the issue with that.

I mean, I'm no professional, but looks fine to me.

[alwaysready126]

He knows his stuff, he's just a habitual ball-buster.

is that his mother in law in the picture?  haha

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm glad it passed the DT test....I figured if he didn't smoke it, then it must be empirically solid.

 

He was correctly critical of last year's.

[JC-CT]

.....And it's been pretty damn good in those few years.

My confidence in the theory is not shaken, so I did not feel the need to express that it was.

If  you read thoroughly, I explicitly explained what I feel interfered last year.

There are no independent variables here.

 

No offense taken...but I do not see the issue with that.

I mean, I'm no professional, but looks fine to me.

 

I read it thoroughly. You mentioned solar and the QBO as potential reasons why the SAI failed last year, and that the lesson learned was to give them greater consideration. But then you stated that although the QBO could again be hostile to -N/AO this year, you didn't give it much weight because there isn't enough information on it. My opinion is that the magnitude of the index's failure last year has to be given some consideration, and if solar and/or QBO were to blame then they could have a significant effect this year as well. Just from a timing perspective, if there was an unaccounted-for variable that interfered with the signal last year, then this year would seem to have an elevated chance of it reoccurring just due to the proximity to last year and the chance of the variable still existing in an interfering state. It is possible for us to agree to disagree about it without questioning the other's reading comprehension skills...

 

Regarding the formatting, look at the word "driver" that ends the first sentence of the first paragraph: "drive" is on the first line, and "r" starts the second line. Or the second line of the first paragraph which ends with the letter "h" and continues on the next line with "owever".