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November 16-18 Storm System


Hoosier

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To illustrate what I'm talking about as far as wind tomorrow, here are the NAM and GFS skew-t's for ORD valid 18z.  Even with S/SSW low level flow, CAA is occurring at this time with steepening low level lapse rates and potential mixing to at least 850 mb if not 800 mb, where there is still 50-55 kt flow.

 

 

post-14-0-20964000-1447800342_thumb.gif

 

 

post-14-0-99601300-1447800376_thumb.gif

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To illustrate what I'm talking about as far as wind tomorrow, here are the NAM and GFS skew-t's for ORD valid 18z. Even with S/SSW low level flow, CAA is occurring at this time with steepening low level lapse rates and potential mixing to at least 850 mb if not 800 mb, where there is still 50-55 kt flow.

attachicon.gif18_NAM_024_KORD_skewt_SB.gif

attachicon.gif18_GFS_024_KORD_skewt_ML.gif

I agree our gusts our too low on land tomorrow. Not sure if we'll issue an advisory with evening update, and GFS may be slightly overdone, but frequent gusts up to 40 mph and occasional gusts to ~45 mph appear probable.
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Heavy rain and gusty winds really dropped visibility while driving home, several cars headed to the shoulder during the downpour

 

Yeah I went over the white line tonight when a sudden downpour hit.

 

0.70" about so far here. Caplan showing that you could get another 1.6" about. About another 0.50" here down into the City.

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Yeah I went over the white line tonight when a sudden downpour hit.

0.70" about so far here. Caplan showing that you could get another 1.6" about. About another 0.50" here down into the City.

Yeah, lots of standing water in the ditches out here with another nice slug of moisture about to move through. Not sure about an additional 1.6", but another inch wouldn't surprise me.

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I've only managed 0.95" total over the last two days, and many locations got less.  Waterloo has only managed 0.37".  After a couple heavy downpours first thing this morning, the rest of the day was nothing but very light rain.  A couple more lines of showers through tomorrow may get us over an inch for the 3-day event.

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