Central Illinois Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 308 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015 ...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... FULTON-SCHUYLER-MASON-LOGAN-CASS-MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON- CHRISTIAN-MACON-MOULTRIE-COLES-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM- JASPER-CRAWFORD-CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CANTON...RUSHVILLE...HAVANA...LINCOLN... BEARDSTOWN...PETERSBURG...WINCHESTER...JACKSONVILLE... SPRINGFIELD...TAYLORVILLE...DECATUR...SULLIVAN...CHARLESTON... MATTOON...SHELBYVILLE...GREENUP...MARSHALL...EFFINGHAM...NEWTON... ROBINSON...FLORA...OLNEY...LAWRENCEVILLE 308 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS * FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. * AS AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...IT WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE...UNUSUALLY COPIOUS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER...WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES FROM HAVANA TO EFFINGHAM WESTWARD...AND RANGE FROM 2.5 TO 3 INCHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-74 CORRIDOR. * GIVEN THE EXTENDED DURATION OF THE RAINFALL...THE MAIN THREATS FOR FLOODING WILL BE IN NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS...ALONG WITH PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS AND ROADS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY LIKELY WHERE FALLEN LEAVES HAVE CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. GEELHART Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 heavy rain event looking increasingly pedestrian IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 heavy rain event looking increasingly pedestrian IMBY Dry air will need to be overcome. Looks like there's pretty good consensus for heavier totals out in eastern Iowa/western Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Looks like there's pretty good consensus for heavier totals out in eastern Iowa/western Illinois. correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Looking like a 0.75"-2.00" rain event across the CWA. Also still looks like a solid advisory wind event from about mid-day tomorrow through Wednesday morning. Should see some 50mph+ gusts once again in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Dry air will need to be overcome. Looks like there's pretty good consensus for heavier totals out in eastern Iowa/western Illinois. It's been the hot spot since late spring early summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Looking like a 0.75"-2.00" rain event across the CWA. Also still looks like a solid advisory wind event from about mid-day tomorrow through Wednesday morning. Should see some 50mph+ gusts once again in some areas. Kind of sick of the wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Up to around 60mph gusts on the NAM. Looks like mixing could be an issue though, with the ceiling on soundings being around 900mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Up to around 60mph gusts on the NAM. Looks like mixing could be an issue though, with the ceiling on soundings being around 900mb. Interesting. NAM 925mb winds in the 50-55kt range, so these kind of gusts seem like a possibility. Especially mixing down in some of the heavier showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Interesting the GFS and NAM are showing 70kts at 850mb wed afternoon here while they both try to put out a line of showers or maybe weak tstorms, surface maps show plenty of 50mph gusts around the same time, I'm wondering if a weak storm line could bring those higher winds down to ground level briefly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 Up to around 60mph gusts on the NAM. Looks like mixing could be an issue though, with the ceiling on soundings being around 900mb. Those gust maps aside, seems like the local offices are underplaying the winds a bit imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Those gust maps aside, seems like the local offices are underplaying the winds a bit imo.Agree. I've read a handful of AFD's from around the area, and ILX was the only one that really entertained the potential for an advisory. LOT really hasn't mentioned the wind potential at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Currently getting the best virga storm of the year. Not much mention of the wind out this way, strongest term I read was "breezy". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Moisture transport setting up nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Local grid forecast is only calling for gusts peaking at barely 40mph really early on Wednesday. After seeing the maps above, I have also concluded things are being downplayed by the offices. Thinking it could get windier with heavy showers too. "Heavy rain and breezy" for tomorrow's wording. A bit damp out there now. It's been sprinkling and drizzling for about 3 hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Wind gusts still forecasted to be up near 50mph or over. Rainfall has backed off some, especially the further east you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 yep, trend has been obvious for a while now going to end up getting less than .50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 0.21" so far. Heaviest rains will probably be this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 nice teardrop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Looks like this will once again bring a lack luster rain event for SEMI. Shocking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Had heavy rain from about 3-6am. Since backed off, and it didn't look like downtown got much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 0.13" so far at home. Breezy this morning. The rest of the day looks like a waves of steady rain. Hawkeye and Cyclone look to cash in the most with rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 dry SE flow doing impressive work, might end up with just a tenth or two...impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 dry SE flow doing impressive work, might end up with just a tenth or two...impressiveI thought we were a lock for a washout but we might get away with working the whole day o_o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 dry SE flow doing impressive work, might end up with just a tenth or two...impressiveOverreaction.Easily over on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Doesn't seem very dry at the lower levels at least. Ground is damp and it has been drizzling on and off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Overreaction. Easily over on that. down to about .3 IMBY now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Picked up a half inch this morning, but the heavier stuff is veering off to the east for now. Cyclone should do well through midday. The main show here should be later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Womp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Cyclone is going to end up with a real nice rain total.... waves of moderate to heavy rain the last few hours already has him up to 1.22", and it has really just begun. I'm only at 0.58". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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