Hoosier Posted November 14, 2015 Author Share Posted November 14, 2015 3mb from being a bomb. Shame there's essentially no instability up to our latitude. But at least there'll be severe storms to track. Would be pretty funny (or sad) to get a system like this and not have any severe threat in our area, but it's looking like that may be the case. I'm just hoping for earlier phasing...not holding my breath, but we are far enough out to where it could get a bit better (or worse lol) from that perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Would be pretty funny (or sad) to get a system like this and not have any severe threat in our area, but it's looking like that may be the case. I'm just hoping for earlier phasing...not holding my breath, but we are far enough out to where it could get a bit better (or worse lol) from that perspective. With the strength of the LLJ combined with its lack of urgency to move, it's ironic that the problems up here are moisture and a narrow warm sector... again. Some pretty good dew points down south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2015 Author Share Posted November 14, 2015 With the strength of the LLJ combined with its lack of urgency to move, it's ironic that the problems up here are moisture and a narrow warm sector... again. Some pretty good dew points down south though. Yeah, that narrow warm sector is never a good thing as far as getting a more widespread threat. At least decent dews do eventually make it north, though in a relatively narrow area. Mid level lapse rates don't look good. ECMWF does have a bit of instability but not much. Wind fields should be very strong so maybe a low end threat in a best case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 I only took a cursory look, but the GEM seems awfully aggressive QPF-wise given the amount of antecedent dry air. I would definitely lean toward an ECMWF and NAM progression in terms of onset...at least for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 GFS with a solid swath of 3+ inches...ST. Louis to Chicago... NAM extrapolated looks roughly the same with some added bullseyes further west into Iowa Canadian looks similar to GFS...axis shifted a little east perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2015 Author Share Posted November 14, 2015 Looks like this will be one of those weird situations where we eventually end up with CAA on southerly or maybe southwesterly winds, though the incoming airmass won't be that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 The plume of moisture with the heaviest rains in really consistent run to run. CMC a touch farther east, but not more than 50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2015 Author Share Posted November 14, 2015 Assuming no big changes in the models, could have a fairly decent period where we get close to wind advisory criteria again or possibly even reach criteria, initially with winds out of the southeast on Tuesday before becoming more southerly/southwesterly. Low level lapse rates are not very good on Tuesday, but they do get better on Wednesday. Loving these low level lapse rate maps on COD...really a quick and dirty way to look at potential all at once over a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 This system is going to dump gobs of rain over the sub especially over central and north central Illinois. Fabert already favoring 3-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2015 Author Share Posted November 14, 2015 IWX comments on the moisture WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN SHORT WAVE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR MID WEEK SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS ENERGY WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY FEEDING INTO IT WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY NIGHT. MASSIVE...IMPRESSIVE AND LIKELY RECORD MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH FROM GOMEX TO THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL TAP THE OCEANIC TRIFECTA WITH PACIFIC...GOMEX AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALL CONVERGING AND SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WATER VAPOR AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE SO GFS AND EVEN LATE PERIOD NAM RECORD PWATS AROUND 1.50 INCHES INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION APPEAR REASONABLE AND LIKELY. PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMATOLOGY INDICATES THESE WOULD BE RECORD VALUES FOR MID TO LATE NOVEMBER AND OVER 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 This LLJ is beyond impressive, both the strength and areal coverage Raw sounding text from east of STL showing 85kts at 850mb and 75kts at 900mb. Unreal stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 18z NAM is juiced up as well - no surprise there. This system will be a windy one also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 This system will be a windy one also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2015 Author Share Posted November 14, 2015 This LLJ is beyond impressive, both the strength and areal coverage Raw sounding text from east of STL showing 85kts at 850mb and 75kts at 900mb. Unreal stuff winds.png Euro was pretty similar with 70-80 kts at 850 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Huge area of 60-75kts 850mb winds over michigan on the 12z euro, a bit less on the 12z gfs (but it still has more catchup to play with the euro still). might be interesting for a brief period of time depending how this all works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2015 Author Share Posted November 14, 2015 Huge area of 60-75kts 850mb winds over michigan on the 12z euro, a bit less on the 12z gfs (but it still has more catchup to play with the euro still). might be interesting for a brief period of time depending how this all works out. Mixing potential looks very questionable, especially Tue night/Wed morning, but the GFS even has 950 mb winds (that's like the height of the Willis Tower in Chicago) of 40-50 kts so if that pans out, just having shallow mixing would make things pretty gusty at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 ILX mentioned at this point their going with 3-4" possibly more SE of the IL River and 2-3" NW of that....LSX says widespread 2-4" across all of CWA Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 One of the most impressive cases of moisture transport you'll ever see shaping up. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2015 Author Share Posted November 15, 2015 00z GFS really bombs this thing now as it heads northward into Canada...more in line with other guidance. Longer duration wind event on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 992mb in NW Iowa and then sub 988mb over MSP metro. Looks like sub 980mb over far western Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 00z GFS really bombs this thing now as it heads northward into Canada...more in line with other guidance. Longer duration wind event on this run.Solid advisory event again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2015 Author Share Posted November 15, 2015 Solid advisory event again... What's your take on how those gust maps did last time? I didn't do a thorough analysis or anything but it seems to me like subtracting about 5 mph worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 What's your take on how those gust maps did last time? I didn't do a thorough analysis or anything but it seems to me like subtracting about 5 mph worked out.They were decent. About a 5mph reduction sounds about right, especially off the GFS...As the NAM seemed to do a bit better than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 CMC has a secondary low that cuts through the Midwest and another one stronger to the NW. They become one and move towards Hudson Bay - under 980mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 0Z GFS has borderline HWW gusts in most of the subforum (from checking actual gusts has a few 56-59), shows a serious event for Lake Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2015 Author Share Posted November 15, 2015 NAM looks like a weak and slow outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 They were decent. About a 5mph reduction sounds about right, especially off the GFS...As the NAM seemed to do a bit better than the GFS. Stratus deck/drizzle here probably cost us hitting the GFS predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2015 Author Share Posted November 15, 2015 Here's a loop of low level lapse rates from the 12z GFS. As you can see, they get better with time on Wednesday into Thursday, and checking some individual forecast soundings, mixing to 800 mb or possibly above is suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Primary low really bombs out by Churchill, MB by Thursday (967mb). Then the Arctic gates unleash the cold on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 NAM looks like a weak and slow outlier. It's amazing that a 997mb low with a ton of rain is weak. (12z NAM, 66 hours, eastern Kansas) vs GFS 988mb, western Minnesota at this time frame. Kinda weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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