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November 16-18 Storm System


Hoosier

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Not in our subforum, but Monday looks to be one of the biggest threats, for Texas, since May, as Q said on Twitter per the NAM. 

 

For our forum, GFS and EURO seem to disagree, yet again. GFS seems slow with the storm while the EURO shoots it N. Opinions? 

 

Slower is normally the way to go in very amplified patterns (and cutoffs), but I'm always a little hesitant to count out the ECMWF, and the faster solution does have other model support.

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Slower is normally the way to go in very amplified patterns (and cutoffs), but I'm always a little hesitant to count out the ECMWF, and the faster solution does have other model support.

ILN favoring the Euro at this point.

 

 

MODELS CONTINUE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY

AND THURSDAY. HAVE OPTED FOR THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH WOULD

BRING THE BULK OF RAIN ACROSS FCST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NOW ALTHOUGH THIS

EVENTUALLY MAY NOT BE NEEDED IF ECMWF IS CORRECT. OF COURSE IF GFS

HOLDS TRUE THEN ALL POPS WOULD BE SHIFTED LATER BY ABOUT 24 HOURS.

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I wonder what reason they are favoring it...is it just because it's the Euro?  lol

 

Probably because the background synoptics recently have been quite progressive. Even with a highly amplified system like this, it might be difficult for it to crawl along like these types of troughs/ULLs usually do.

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Probably because the background synoptics recently have been quite progressive. Even with a highly amplified system like this, it might be difficult for it to crawl along like these types of troughs/ULLs usually do.

 

 

See, there's a reason.  Not that ILN didn't have one, but they didn't spell it out.

 

My guess is that we might see the faster models slow down some, but I'm basically leaning on past history.  Perhaps the fast solutions pan out. 

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One of the mets at IWX (Lonnie Fisher) mentioned couple of days ago that he was favoring the Euro due to the recent progressive pattern, as Andy pointed out above.

 

However, if the trough develops like the GFS predicts, I'll take the slower solution FTW. I've seen too many fall troughs really hang up before finally ejecting to believe this one would behave any differently. Just my uneducated, anecdotal opinion.

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