RyanDe680 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 we're getting into that time of the year where the totals for precip further out get comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 CIPS analogs based on the 12z GFS at 120 hours Checking the individual years, looks like the 500 mb low is deeper this time than most of these, with a few exceptions. Also, some of these were decent severe weather producers so I'd say that could be a concern, if not in our subforum then farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Yeah, I was referring to the system 9-10 days out for cold rain, but the upcoming Mon-Wed. system definitely looks warm and wet here in Indy. And Gil is already mentioning the need to look out for possible svr somewhere in the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 18z GFS pulls PWATS of ~1.8" all they way up to ILX....which is pretty ridiculous. Daily max on that date is 1.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Should be another fun storm to watch deepen while everyone east of the Mississippi enjoys shorts weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 Impressive transient pocket of warm 850's in IL/WI on this run, especially to see it juxtaposed next to 850's below 0C to the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 18z GFS pulls PWATS of ~1.8" all they way up to ILX....which is pretty ridiculous. Daily max on that date is 1.4" yeah, record smashing potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 18z GFS pulls PWATS of ~1.8" all they way up to ILX....which is pretty ridiculous. Daily max on that date is 1.4" If GFS is right with the speed of the system and the intense LLJ, that's pretty believable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 pretty juicy looking setup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 pretty juicy looking setup... STJ says hi. Impressively amplified pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 System already grabbing Faberts attention on the local news, mentioned this system tonight and said potential for 3" of rain. Love this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 pretty juicy looking setup... Looking good! However, another mild 55 degree rain, which is kinda lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 it will be in the 60s Anything below 70*F is cold to some (especially with clouds / rain). But to each his/her own... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Anything below 70*F is cold to some (especially with clouds / rain). But to each his/her own... LOL....my M-I-L was wearing a jacket at Disney World a couple weeks ago when it was 88* with 70* dew point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nje310 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 system looks hot, nothing like prolonged SE winds and mild air in mid november, we deserve it What awful thing did we do to deserve never ending very warm air in November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Newest GFS has the ridging so strong that it creates a horseshoe block over the south Plains trough. The low pressure hardly moves between hours 96 and 126. As a result... Sorry, way out of this subforum's area, but how can you resist sharing this; 48" bullseye in west Nebraska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 Newest GFS has the ridging so strong that it creates a horseshoe block over the south Plains trough. The low pressure hardly moves between hours 96 and 126. As a result... Sorry, way out of this subforum's area, but how can you resist sharing this; 48" bullseye in west Nebraska Just to give you an idea of how wild that run is...St. Louis's wettest November on record is 9.95". They almost get that in one storm (looks like about 9" on this run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Models seem to have been pretty consistent and fairly reliable on track for the last couple systems, yet a little overdone on intensity in the 4-5 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Canadian in the envelope as well for a soaker in the areas highlighted by the other models and the WPC... and a thumper for Denver and points east... Actually gets MKX up to the 60s in the middle of the night Tuesday night (I know Canadian can get a bit extreme up or down with their temp plots) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 GFS continues to bring a lot of moisture up into Illinois. Flood threat? Maybe some severe? 06z GFS has a strip of 10+ inches. Probably overdone, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 euro eventually turns this thing into a badass hudson cyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Strip of 1.8-2.0" PWATs on that 6z GFS run. 65F dews in November. Pure model porn. Of note, the system seems to be universally slowed down over the last 2-3 runs on all of the globals, hence some of the eye-popping QPFs and moisture returns now showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Strip of 1.8-2.0" PWATs on that 6z GFS run. 65F dews in November. Pure model porn. Of note, the system seems to be universally slowed down over the last 2-3 runs on all of the globals, hence some of the eye-popping QPFs and moisture returns now showing up. the slowing trend certainly makes sense, STL looks like potential ground zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 6Z GFS MOS output for STL was 22.76". That has to be the most unrealistic QPF I've seen at least for here in St. Louis. Can somebody double check that? Edit: Yeah, that looks close anyway. The WxBell graphic shows between 16-23" in the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 6Z GFS MOS output for STL was 22.76". That has to be the most unrealistic QPF I've seen at least for here in St. Louis. Can somebody double check that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Thanks, here was the output I got off the Accuweather site. GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: LAT = 38.74 LON = -90.37 06Z NOV13 * - APPROXIMATED TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL SNCVR SFC 2 M 1000 1000 HR CVP NCP LIQ PCP TMP 500 850 (IN) (IN) (IN) (IN) TYPES (C) THK THK SUN 21Z 15-NOV 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RA 12.3 555 135 MON 00Z 16-NOV 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 RA 10.3 556 135 MON 03Z 16-NOV 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 10.2 557 135 MON 06Z 16-NOV 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 RA 10.7 556 134 MON 09Z 16-NOV 0.19 0.00 0.19 0.00 RA 8.0 556 134 MON 12Z 16-NOV 0.56 0.00 0.56 0.00 RA 8.7 555 133 MON 15Z 16-NOV 0.69 0.00 0.69 0.00 RA 9.0 557 134 MON 18Z 16-NOV 1.16 0.00 1.16 0.00 RA 8.7 558 134 MON 21Z 16-NOV 1.39 0.00 1.39 0.00 RA 9.5 559 135 TUE 00Z 17-NOV 1.70 0.01 1.69 0.00 RA 10.6 560 136 TUE 03Z 17-NOV 1.70 0.01 1.69 0.00 RA 11.8 561 136 TUE 06Z 17-NOV 1.74 0.04 1.70 0.00 RA 12.6 562 137 TUE 09Z 17-NOV 1.79 0.08 1.70 0.00 RA 14.1 563 137 TUE 12Z 17-NOV 1.97 0.23 1.73 0.00 RA 15.1 563 137 TUE 15Z 17-NOV 2.19 0.25 1.93 0.00 RA 16.1 565 137 TUE 18Z 17-NOV 2.54 0.29 2.24 0.00 RA 16.7 566 138 TUE 21Z 17-NOV 2.58 0.29 2.28 0.00 RA 17.7 567 138 WED 00Z 18-NOV 2.67 0.29 2.38 0.00 RA 17.6 567 138 WED 03Z 18-NOV 2.96 0.30 2.67 0.00 RA 17.1 566 138 WED 06Z 18-NOV 4.52 0.32 4.20 0.00 RA 17.0 566 138 WED 09Z 18-NOV 6.18 0.33 5.85 0.00 RA 17.1 566 138 WED 12Z 18-NOV 9.23 0.35 8.88 0.00 RA 17.1 566 138 WED 15Z 18-NOV 10.48 0.35 10.12 0.00 RA 17.6 566 138 WED 18Z 18-NOV 12.62 0.39 12.23 0.00 RA 18.3 567 139 WED 21Z 18-NOV 13.78 0.48 13.31 0.00 RA 18.9 568 139 THU 00Z 19-NOV 16.30 0.70 15.60 0.00 RA 19.2 568 139 THU 03Z 19-NOV 17.71 0.78 16.93 0.00 RA 19.4 569 139 THU 06Z 19-NOV 20.06 1.06 19.01 0.00 RA 19.2 567 139 THU 09Z 19-NOV 21.22 1.40 19.81 0.00 RA 19.6 568 139 THU 12Z 19-NOV 22.76 1.84 20.92 0.00 RA 16.4 565 138 THU 15Z 19-NOV 22.76 1.84 20.92 0.00 13.5 561 136 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 FWIW ILX already going bullish in the hourly grids with right around 4.50" and still raining here at the end of the time period Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Firehose unleashed on St Louis to Champaign on the 12Z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 That would be an epic rain. Pretty substantial into the south suburbs and Kankakee as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 That would be an epic rain. Pretty substantial into the south suburbs and Kankakee as well. Bullseye right over my backyard. Forecast already showing 3+" for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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