Hoosier Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Looks like an impressive trough will dig into the west and may or may not eventually result in a cutoff low in the Plains. Details yet to be worked out obviously but if it does become cutoff, would lead to more impressive rain amounts and possibly a flooding threat somewhere in the region. May need to ultimately adjust the dates here once it becomes more clear what we're dealing with but wanted to get things going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 Can't wait to see the CIPS analogs if the GFS keeps this general solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 GFS had this solution a couple days ago... it seems it's been having trouble figuring out when the STJ combines with the polar jet. The solution where they combine later provides a less impressive system... when they combine earlier (in those case, New Mexico), it creates this monster. A 60+ knot LLJ sets up and hardly moves (relatively speaking) over the span of 2 days. Rain totals in this run: The last time it had this crazy trough: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 The last time it had this crazy trough: 00z GGEM kinda looks like that 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 Bombs away on the 00z ECMWF. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 Given the setup, wouldn't be surprising to see more model variability/volatility than the current storm, but pretty impressive run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Bombs away on the 00z ECMWF. Wow. Well, yeah, it dropped it from 983mb on the 12z-168hr forecast to 974 on the 00z 168-hr forecast. Of course, those are 12 hours different, so that's a factor. Then, of course, there is what you posted above-- which is comparing apples to apples (that is, forecasts for the same time). Regarding this storm: did you see what the 18z GFS did to Kansas? Kansas weather weenies would be posting that run. That is, if we had a large contingent of posters from Kansas. Note: The 00z GFS brings 15-28" of snow to northwest Kansas and Colorado. I'll have to post that one in the Mountain West thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 system looks hot, nothing like prolonged SE winds and mild air in mid november, we deserve it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 WPC has 1.5 or more inches of QPF for the whole state of IL on D6 - D7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 system looks hot, nothing like prolonged SE winds and mild air in mid november, we deserve it Your night time lows could be impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 12z GFS with more of the same high level 850 moisture transport with a total river of moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 WPC has 1.5 or more inches of QPF for the whole state of IL on D6 - D7 pretty impressive total for this system Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 This storm with a more easterly track in 2 months = win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 It would be nice if this whole thing came out at once and still stayed somewhat phased with the northern energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 12z CMC really digs this system down into the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 12z GGEM phases with a northern stream wave and bombs it out as it pulls into Canada...then follows it up with another moisture laden system coming out of the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 12z GGEM phases with a northern stream wave and bombs it out as it pulls into Canada...then follows it up with another moisture laden system coming out of the Gulf. Plausible scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 Plausible scenario. Alek screwjob and you near the rain/snow line for system #2...looks about right Between both systems, enormous area of 6+ inches of rain with a pretty large area of 10-15 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Yeah... Ill take the snow side, either or the GFS and its 2 inches or the CMCs loads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 I meant GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Alek screwjob and you near the rain/snow line for system #2...looks about right gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png Between both systems, enormous area of 6+ inches of rain with a pretty large area of 10-15 or so and i think widespread heavy rains are close to a lock...GFS/Euro in pretty good agreement with the massive ridging and wide open gulf flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 and i think widespread heavy rains are close to a lock...GFS/Euro in pretty good agreement with the massive ridging and wide open gulf flow Agree, I think the main question is whether it's more of a run of the mill heavy rain event or it gets out of hand like some runs have been suggesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 A cold rain for me down here in Indy with the new system, but why couldn't we have had this moisture for the Veteran's Day storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 A cold rain for me down here in Indy with the new system, but why couldn't we have had this moisture for the Veteran's Day storm? it will be in the 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 Probably meant the 2nd system around day 10, which the 12z ECMWF has by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Probably meant the 2nd system around day 10, which the 12z ECMWF has by the way. Looks like it has 3 systems total. 2nd being a CO low to the northern Midwest then a 3rd coming out of the gulf by day 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Probably meant the 2nd system around day 10, which the 12z ECMWF has by the way. 12z yesterday had a 1-2 punch as well pattern rules Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eureka22 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 ILX already hi-lighting it in the HWO. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1141 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015 ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-131200- CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-COLES-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-DOUGLAS- EDGAR-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN- MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK- TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD- 1141 AM CST THU NOV 12 2015 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A WET WEATHER PERIOD IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LIKELY TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 12Z ECMWF off eurowx has a six inch bullseye along the IL river valley near PIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 Check out the 500 mb height anomalies with this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.