WxUSAF Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Nice work as usual, Matt. I think your snow numbers are reasonable with the low confidence caveat. Could be a great year for Jonjon. I agree with your December and January temp forecasts (and the seasonal number), but I'm wondering (hoping?) that February and bn maybe March are both slightly below normal with maybe a couple respectable cold shots. I see above you had some thoughts of a BN February also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 hmmmm....DJF wasn't that much of a blowtorch for DC...+0.2 based on 81-2010 norms so probably like a +2 to +3 once I filter it through my super duper DCA translator (plus you can look at max/min anomalies and get a sense)...Kind of curious if the new sensor at DCA will cool things down a bit this winter...I kind of doubt it... That's interesting, I hadn't checked DCA but you're right. Departure from avg: Dec: +2.1 Jan: -2.5 Feb: +0.8 Mar: +2.6 BWI was warmer than DCA each month for DJF too: Dec: DCA 41.8, BWI 43.8 Jan: DCA 33.5, BWI 34.9 Feb: DCA 39.8, BWI 40.4 Mar: DCA 49.4, BWI 49.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Solid effort: Why are you being snarky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 I get the impression DT disagrees lol. Nice read Matt....i hope it's a wet winter and roll the dice on temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Good read. Nice job. I'm with Leesburg, let's get an active storm track and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Nicely done, and a good write-up. Of course, I hope it's a bit colder overall and at least somewhat snowier in the end. But you cover the reasons and caveats very well, and clearly state it's a low confidence forecast and why. I'm sure at first glance a lot of snow weenies will head for the cliffs and cancel winter, but reading between the lines, it's not all that awful to be honest. It's a very reasonable forecast and hedges "somewhat low" for this area...which in my opinion is quite fair at this point. I think a lot of people are generally calling for somewhat warmer than normal but no blowtorch (except, perhaps, for December?). The wild card is snow, which is almost always the case. Interesting in the forecasts I've seen/read, there's an overall tendency to go warmer (not too much) but snowier for this winter. To be honest, I don't expect a 1997-98 style disaster or a 2011-12 style torch, but won't be surprised if things are "meh" to average overall. I also won't be surprised if we get hammered with a blockbuster kind of storm, either. I guess the only thing anyone is truly confident about is that it will be wetter and stormier than usual! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 11, 2015 Author Share Posted November 11, 2015 FWIW, this is lower confidence than my usual low confidence We have never seen region 4 this warm. Given the absurd PDO and the fact that forcing might be closer to 160-180, perhaps the NPAC won't be completely hostile...Get us a block in February and let's see what happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 FWIW, this is lower confidence than my usual low confidence We have never seen region 4 this warm. Given the absurd PDO and the fact that forcing might be closer to 160-180, perhaps the NPAC won't be completely hostile...Get us a block in February and let's see what happens... LOL!! Lower than the usual lower confidence! All humor aside, I think anyone forecasting for this winter should feel that way to be honest. Yeah, there's definitely some uncharted territory this year with the Nino as it is. As you say, maybe...just maybe we can get a bit lucky in terms of the PDO and thus the Pac won't be as hostile. It surely won't be as great for us as it was the past two years (which made those two winters!), but if we can avoid the "small galaxy" of a low in the Gulf of AK (hat tip to ORH Wx in the other winter thread!) maybe we'll have a fighting chance. That, and if the NAO/blocking cooperates at some point, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 11, 2015 Author Share Posted November 11, 2015 LOL!! Lower than the usual lower confidence! All humor aside, I think anyone forecasting for this winter should feel that way to be honest. Yeah, there's definitely some uncharted territory this year with the Nino as it is. As you say, maybe...just maybe we can get a bit lucky in terms of the PDO and thus the Pac won't be as hostile. It surely won't be as great for us as it was the past two years (which made those two winters!), but if we can avoid the "small galaxy" of a low in the Gulf of AK (hat tip to ORH Wx in the other winter thread!) maybe we'll have a fighting chance. That, and if the NAO/blocking cooperates at some point, of course. yes..the key is getting a PAC that isn't a complete non starter...Even in February I doubt the PAC will be that great...good perhaps...We will need blocking...our periods of +NAO/AO this winter won't cut it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 I get the impression DT disagrees lol. Nice read Matt....i hope it's a wet winter and roll the dice on temps Been my line around here for years. I totally agree. Get precip first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Good read.....nicely done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 I also could not immediately find a snow total for the mid-Atlantic region in 1877-78. However, I found a mention of 8.1 inches that season for New York City. the 8.1" looks like it was one storm on January 31st-February 1st, 1878...it could have been 8" with another dusting in January...either way it was a one storm winter and mild for its time... http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/wint77_78.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 can i get a specific Mt Parkton one, kthx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 I'm gonna go with some rain/some snow, some cold/some warm, plenty of useless model runs/storm teases, and several posters off the deep end from time to time. This forecast is almost certain to verify quite nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 I'm gonna go with some rain/some snow, some cold/some warm, plenty of useless model runs/storm teases, and several posters off the deep end from time to time. This forecast is almost certain to verify quite nicely. You are to long-range forecasts what your boy from Stephens City is to a beautifully warm fall day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 11, 2015 Author Share Posted November 11, 2015 Here is the snow map...contours are not drawn precisely..but generally conveys what I intended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 You are to long-range forecasts what your boy from Stephens City is to a beautifully warm fall day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Here is the snow map...contours are not drawn precisely..but generally conveys what I intended snowmap.PNG Do you guys do any regional type forecasting, or are you pretty much DC centric? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 11, 2015 Author Share Posted November 11, 2015 Do you guys do any regional type forecasting, or are you pretty much DC centric? CWG does regional...I am DC-centric..people complained that I didn't cover their backyard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Just a snapshot Mt. Parkton Dec Temp: Warm, but colder than everyone Jan Temp: Less warm, and still colder than everyone Feb Temp: Cold, and yes, colder than everyone Season total: More than everyone but Jonjon Total (not T) events: 1.5x the next highest Greatest snowfall: 15.5" (Feb) Most accurate forecast all season. love it thanks. But you know the Westminster/Manchester crowd always does a bit better than me. So lets put me third below JonJon and the hills of Carroll County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Just a snapshot Mt. Parkton Dec Temp: Warm, but colder than everyone Jan Temp: Less warm, and still colder than everyone Feb Temp: Cold, and yes, colder than everyone Season total: More than everyone but Jonjon Total (not T) events: 1.5x the next highest Greatest snowfall: 15.5" (Feb) Most accurate forecast all season. Winchester will come in 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Here is the snow map...contours are not drawn precisely..but generally conveys what I intended snowmap.PNG Good job on the outlook. Your forecasted snow totals would exceed the seasonal totals from nearly half of the winters over the past 20 years. Hope it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Here is the snow map...contours are not drawn precisely..but generally conveys what I intended snowmap.PNG It would be soooo much easier to read if you had contours with regions labeled A, B, C, D, E in some kind of disjointed fashion, but this works too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 I thought Wes writes these. Did something change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 I thought Wes writes these. Did something change? Wes doesn't do seasonal forecasting...I think he would do a great job....But he focuses on the mid and short range.... I do ask him for feedback and he has made some really good suggestions over the years, and sometimes I have incorporated them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Good job Matt. I liked the way you tied in the risks regarding snowfall. Specifics like big snow storms (which are statistically uncommon in any given year) and how they can affect the outcome is duly noted. If we beat climo again it won't likely be achieved the same way as last year with an unusually high # of events. Agree with this. Climo will only be beat this year with big storms. That makes the possibility of a crappy winter very real. But like I said at the end of last winter. 3 above climos in a row would be shocking IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Good write-up. The small sample size of very strong El Nino events makes this year a very difficult one to analog. We're in uncharted waters when one combines the various index states currently present [super, basin wide ENSO, +QBO, +PDO, etc.]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 Good write-up. The small sample size of very strong El Nino events makes this year a very difficult one to analog. We're in uncharted waters when one combines the various index states currently present [super, basin wide ENSO, +QBO, +PDO, etc.]. thanks yes...I didn't weigh analogs much at all...I think we'll get a more serviceable PAC (at least in 2nd half)....I am still very very dubious of a -AO/-NAO....I'd lean against it in the means, so we will need a little luck down here....hopefully we get a decent period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Very nicely written, and easy to follow. Lets see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Matt, have you given any thought at all to how you feel about this neck of the woods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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