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Pittsburgh, PA Thread: Winter 2015-2016


meatwad

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Looks almost identical to 00z para. At least with totals in our area. It is def smoking something though. Pretty sure I saw on accu that it has the low a solid 300 miles or so southeast from where

it currently is. I could be wrong though.

Maybe euro is picking up on that low of the coast that col was mentioning early ?

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Took a quick peek at ECMWF and 00z at hr 36 had a 999mb low centered over West Virginia. 

12z ECMWF had a 1002mb low centered over NC Piedmont region and a 1001mb low near Charlotte. 

Definitely a difference in location like it had jumped the cumberland gap. 

Looking further down the line it looks like this may be why ECMWF kept depicting a "down the spine of the apps" solution... it just couldn't resolve the finer details early on.

It's not much further east... and this may just be the Euro. But it definitely makes the transfer to the east side. Still runs inland rather than becoming a coastal. Also scoots to the northeast faster than 00z. 

Something that bears watching

 

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Hey also does it help it being nighttime for colder at night. No sun. ??

It can't hurt, but it wouldn't be enough to overcome the LLJ screaming into the area. It might aid in liquid freezing on sub freezing surfaces though even after air temperatures go a couple degrees above freezing. We need the low to track further SE, that would make the biggest difference. This storm really has some big bust potential that is for sure!

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It can't hurt, but it wouldn't be enough to overcome the LLJ screaming into the area. It might aid in liquid freezing on sub freezing surfaces though even after air temperatures go a couple degrees above freezing. We need the low to track further SE, that would make the biggest difference. This storm really has some big bust potential that is for sure!

Be nice we can one time over come the warm toungue One time. I'm happy with a little mix. But 3-6. 4-8 overnight would be nice. Remember it's been trending a little.

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Cleve discussion likes the EURO precip 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH HEIGHT FALLS CENTERED
OVER NORTH CAROLINA. MODELS TRACK THE LOW ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA BY 06Z AND INTO EASTERN WV BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. JUDGING
FROM THE 18Z 6 HOURS QPF...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAS THE HIGHEST
QPF TOO FAR NORTH INTO THE COLDER AIR. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF
FOR THE QPF FORECAST.

 

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