Rd9108 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Nams not bad cold air tries to hang on for as long as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE WAVES WILL KEEP THE AREA RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEGINS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL QPF IS EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER GOOD SATURATION IS NOTED IN THE 285-295K LAYER WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DROPPING DECIDEDLY BELOW 10 MB FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS COINCIDES WITH A SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES BELOW IT ARE RATHER ANEMIC. THE RESULT WILL SEEMINGLY BE EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH WITH ABUNDANT SUBLIMATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH LIGHT QPF...THE NET RESULT SEEMS TO BE GENERAL LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY WITH FAR LESS THAN AN INCH POSSIBLE MOST EVERYWHERE. ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE RIDES THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED DECIDEDLY WEST WITH THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM. MOST GUIDANCE NOW TRACKS THE 850 MB LOW THROUGH EASTERN OHIO OR UP THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA. AS A RESULT...AN ALL SNOW FORECAST SEEMS LIKE AN IMPOSSIBILITY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SNOW DEVELOPS...HOWEVER THE DURATION OF TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. SCREAMING 850 MB FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE RIDGES AND METRO PITTSBURGH SUGGESTS THE PERIOD OF ICING MAY END UP BEING LOWER IN DURATION THAN ONE WOULD THINK GIVEN WE ARE SITTING AT ZERO DEGREES RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY VERY COLD AND WILL BE VERY COLD AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT. THUS...FREEZING RAIN WORDING WAS USED IN A FAIRLY HEAVY- HANDED FASHION THROUGH THE FORECAST. GIVEN MODEL WAFFLING AND TRENDS...IT WOULD SEEM MOST AREAS WOULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW...BEFORE SOME ICE...AND MANY AREAS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH AND EVEN IN THE RIDGES WOULD GO ALL RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THAT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS ARE LIKELY TO MEET WARNING CRITERIA IN AND OF THEMSELVES...NO WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THAT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN ANYTHING BUT IN UNISON...CONFIDENCE IS NOT ANYWHERE NEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUED ADVISORIES AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE. THUS...HWO WORDING HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AND FURTHER SCRUTINY CAN BE GIVEN BY FURTHER SHIFTS WITH REGARD TO SNOW/ICE/RAIN POTENTIAL. FRIES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Never had much confidence in this system to produce snow, at least down in my neck of the woods. It was a losing bet. Hopefully we get another chance at snow in a couple weeks. Last couple winters have featured decent March snow so I'm not going to say winter is completely done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 This storm has moisture, but that's about it. Everything else is out of place. We could use a fast bombing storm to help with the thermals, but the H5 energy doesn't look that impressive. The H5 energy for the Wednesday clipper is actually better. Even the NWS is in nowcast mode. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Wow the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Never had much confidence in this system to produce snow, at least down in my neck of the woods. It was a losing bet. Hopefully we get another chance at snow in a couple weeks. Last couple winters have featured decent March snow so I'm not going to say winter is completely done. Yeah, the trend this winter has been for more opportunities than not.This was always gonna have a better chance to be your winter to finally cash in, with the nino/southern stream storms. The NWS should give you a part time job to measure snow at Hart Field. It's been too long. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 http://paweatheraction.com/first-call-with-amounts-significant-wintry-mix-to-pose-travel-headaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 http://paweatheraction.com/first-call-with-amounts-significant-wintry-mix-to-pose-travel-headaches These people have a different outlook ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 http://paweatheraction.com/first-call-with-amounts-significant-wintry-mix-to-pose-travel-headaches February 13, 2016 Not Really from Yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Someone posted that page on my Facebook yesterday. I told them to get lost. When was any guidance ever showing 6-10"? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 http://paweatheraction.com/first-call-with-amounts-significant-wintry-mix-to-pose-travel-headaches That is from yesterday. Useless today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Over 1.5 inch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 That is from yesterday. Useless today There update is 530 pm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 There second call was 4pm today , But they said on face book it's been moved to 530 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 There second call was 4pm today , But they said on face book it's been moved to 530 pm. Are these people meteorologists or are they just weenies that started their own page? It looks like we are back to our normal warm tongue storm with a little sleet and freezing rain to rain and dusting on the backside. We really haven't had any of those yet this year and we usually have several each winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Are these people meteorologists or are they just weenies that started their own page? It looks like we are back to our normal warm tongue storm with a little sleet and freezing rain to rain and dusting on the backside. We really haven't had any of those yet this year and we usually have several each winter. Is dt a weenie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Are these people meteorologists or are they just weenies that started their own page? It looks like we are back to our normal warm tongue storm with a little sleet and freezing rain to rain and dusting on the backside. We really haven't had any of those yet this year and we usually have several each winter. weenies & are TERRIBLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Is dt a weenie? They updated and looks like dt one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 They updated and looks like dt one. Actually theirs looks more reasonable than DT's AREA A – Up to 1″ of snow is likely as the front end of the storm moves in Monday Morning and Afternoon. This area will then change to all rain for the rest of the storm. AREA B – 1-2″ of snow is likely Monday Morning and Early Afternoon before changing over to all rain by the evening. AREA C – 2-3″ of snow is likely Monday Morning into the Early Afternoon before changing over to freezing rain which will cause about .1″ of ice accretion before changing over to all rain by Monday Evening. AREA D – 3-5″ of snow is likely Monday Morning into the Afternoon before changing over to freezing rain between 6-10 PM. Freezing rain will then continue through about 2-5 AM, when precipitation type will shift to plain rain. Up to .25″ of ice accretion is expected which could cause scattered power outages. AREA E – 5-8″ of snow is likely Monday Afternoon into Early Tuesday Morning before changing to plain rain by the AM Commute. AREA F – 8-12″ of snow is likely Monday Evening through Tuesday Afternoon which will cause travel disruptions. This area will stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Actually theirs looks more reasonable than DT's AREA A – Up to 1″ of snow is likely as the front end of the storm moves in Monday Morning and Afternoon. This area will then change to all rain for the rest of the storm. AREA B – 1-2″ of snow is likely Monday Morning and Early Afternoon before changing over to all rain by the evening. AREA C – 2-3″ of snow is likely Monday Morning into the Early Afternoon before changing over to freezing rain which will cause about .1″ of ice accretion before changing over to all rain by Monday Evening. AREA D – 3-5″ of snow is likely Monday Morning into the Afternoon before changing over to freezing rain between 6-10 PM. Freezing rain will then continue through about 2-5 AM, when precipitation type will shift to plain rain. Up to .25″ of ice accretion is expected which could cause scattered power outages. AREA E – 5-8″ of snow is likely Monday Afternoon into Early Tuesday Morning before changing to plain rain by the AM Commute. AREA F – 8-12″ of snow is likely Monday Evening through Tuesday Afternoon which will cause travel disruptions. This area will stay all snow. Looks like dt one from a few days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Someone posted that page on my Facebook yesterday. I told them to get lost. When was any guidance ever showing 6-10"? lol. Lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I don't even know where to begin with that map.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I don't even know where to begin with that map.... I think he meant to put .6 - 1.2 inches of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I think he meant to put .6 - 1.2 inches of snow... I think a lot of these are from yesterday or Friday guidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I think a lot of these are from yesterday or Friday guidence Still, nothing was showing us receiving 6-12 yest or Friday lol. Guess they just have to make things look bad to keep ppl coming back to check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I think he meant to put .6 - 1.2 inches of snow... So sad. One of these storms is going to be ours and it is going to feel great. The waiting and frustration almost makes it better when we do have things go our way. May even shed a tear when that day comes lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Cold dry, warm wet. Nothing new here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I like how from Meadvlile to Erie are in the 8-12 range. These are cities that are due......NOT Here is my prediction. Models move 60 miles east tonight and we get into the heavy snow only. ONE CAN ONLY DREAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Over 1.5 inch of rain. At least we will wipe the slate clean and wash all the salt away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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