colonel717 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Euro tries to almost phase with the clipper trailing in behind it. This is where I wish we had some METs in our area to comment, but I wonder if that happens a bit sooner if it would allow the storm wrap in more cold air, or if it would just push the track further west. I don't like snow to rain storms, but I mean if we are talking 8-10 inches then rain that is something I could get on board for. UKie has a very similar solution as EURO. CMC is on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I don't see how that clipper helps us in any way. Either it moves too fast and pushes the main southern low East and out to sea, or it moves too slow and the southern stream comes too far north and brings warm air with it, giving us driving rain. Seeing as how I despise seeing rain during the winter, I honestly would prefer this to just move East and give us less precip overall. I don't trust thread-the-needle events, especially in the valleys south of Allegheny where warm air floods very easily. Confidence very low in this particular event. I don't know how the Euro breaks down its precip forecasts, but I imagine a lot of the snow it shows wouldn't be around once the storm is over (either it falls as a mix or gets washed away in the rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I don't see how that clipper helps us in any way. Either it moves too fast and pushes the main southern low East and out to sea, or it moves too slow and the southern stream comes too far north and brings warm air with it, giving us driving rain. Seeing as how I despise seeing rain during the winter, I honestly would prefer this to just move East and give us less precip overall. I don't trust thread-the-needle events, especially in the valleys south of Allegheny where warm air floods very easily. Confidence very low in this particular event. I don't know how the Euro breaks down its precip forecasts, but I imagine a lot of the snow it shows wouldn't be around once the storm is over (either it falls as a mix or gets washed away in the rain). I think the EURO is 2-5 snow, heavy rain, 3 -5 snow. Here is map from what I can tell before rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Many GEFS Mean members amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 LOL, can't imagine why! Maybe if you offer to take the kids she will have a change of heart? I told her 2 I would take. She laughed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 BigJoeBastardi Attention PA turnpike officials. So we are clear, there is likely to be enough snow between PIT and HAR Mon/Tue for you to consider closing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 EURO Ensembles are pretty good with a mean of around 6. Some whiffs for everyone, some way amped, some in between and some east. EURO CONTROL isn't bad either but mixing would most likely be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/accuweather-experts/video/2430839568001/storm-to-target-mid-atlantic-and-northeast-next-week?autoStart=true Bernie Rayno ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 BigJoeBastardi Attention PA turnpike officials. So we are clear, there is likely to be enough snow between PIT and HAR Mon/Tue for you to consider closing Good I'm a stones throw from the turnpike Part 2. Proud to report light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/accuweather-experts/video/2430839568001/storm-to-target-mid-atlantic-and-northeast-next-week?autoStart=true Bernie Rayno ! He's saying further east. I wound agree that this is a wind shield wiper with the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 18z NAM has 3-6" for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 DT'S thoughts. UPDATE FEB 15-16 EAST COAST EVENT With 2 short term events currently underway I do not have the time to go into a lot of detail about Monday Tuesday February 15 -16. I will however have the time later this afternoon and early evening. I will briefly say however that all the model data at midday is warmer and most of them take main LOW up the Appalachians mountains or just to the east of the mountains across the coastal plain Monday night and Tuesday morning. As we get closer to the event .. the model seemed to be latching onto a track well inland. The Low track seems to be something like Raleigh Baltimore Binghamton NY.... This greatly reduces the threat of an ice storm for the Shenandoah Valley and for Western Maryland. We are not saying there will be no ice across the Shenandoah Valley and Western Maryland... But right now it does not look like a big deal In fact the most of the weather models -- not all but most- drive the rain snow line as far north as Albany NY ... nd out to towards Pittsburgh and out to the Virginia West Virginia State line by Tuesday morning. All of West Virginia should stay either frozen or snow and this could be a significant snowstorm for much of eastern KY ..the eastern half of Ohio and possibly far Western PA. There is some possibility that the precipitation may go back over all snow over the northern half of the Shenandoah Valley and the northern Piedmont -- possibly including DC BAL Hagerstown and Maryland on Tuesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 DT'S thoughts. UPDATE FEB 15-16 EAST COAST EVENT With 2 short term events currently underway I do not have the time to go into a lot of detail about Monday Tuesday February 15 -16. I will however have the time later this afternoon and early evening. I will briefly say however that all the model data at midday is warmer and most of them take main LOW up the Appalachians mountains or just to the east of the mountains across the coastal plain Monday night and Tuesday morning. As we get closer to the event .. the model seemed to be latching onto a track well inland. The Low track seems to be something like Raleigh Baltimore Binghamton NY.... This greatly reduces the threat of an ice storm for the Shenandoah Valley and for Western Maryland. We are not saying there will be no ice across the Shenandoah Valley and Western Maryland... But right now it does not look like a big deal In fact the most of the weather models -- not all but most- drive the rain snow line as far north as Albany NY ... nd out to towards Pittsburgh and out to the Virginia West Virginia State line by Tuesday morning. All of West Virginia should stay either frozen or snow and this could be a significant snowstorm for much of eastern KY ..the eastern half of Ohio and possibly far Western PA. There is some possibility that the precipitation may go back over all snow over the northern half of the Shenandoah Valley and the northern Piedmont -- possibly including DC BAL Hagerstown and Maryland on Tuesday afternoon. What model is he talking about? Does he still consider Pittsburgh, Westmoreland County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Dont feel like posting maps but gfs is weak with the first wave spreading 2-3 but then strengthens the clipper behind it and it looks cold enough for snow. However it still looks like it screws us. 12z tomorrow will be very important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 000FXUS61 KPBZ 122123AFDPBZAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA423 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016.SYNOPSIS...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGHSATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILLCONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORTINCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONTPASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGERRANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEPMOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELLWITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENTSNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATEDWITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARYLAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...AWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTONTUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMINGOF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONTPROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERNOHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUSRUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS SUGGESTTHAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES ACROSS.GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH SLIGHTLYHIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATESAND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATESATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLEDIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THISSUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WINDGUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSETO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEENUPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THEHIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEPOSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODELGUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATESTITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLYSOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENTOF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCHFOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...ANDFOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYONDTHESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTYIN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.&&.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFTNORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FORSUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WINDCHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGHPRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOWZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE RESTOF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEWDEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERINGOF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FORBOTH PERIODS.&&.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARMADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHTINTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OFPITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TORISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGEMONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAMSHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILLQUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFERON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ANDINTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITHRAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOTSTRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWFWRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVINGCLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOWSHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THENBEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARMADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.&&.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LIGHT SNOW HAS DROPPED VSBY TO MVFR OR BELOW FOR A TIME AT KMGW ANDKLBE AS A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC. SNOW SHOWERSALSO WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WITH MVFR TOIFR THIS EVENING WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER25KTS AND TURNING NORTHWEST WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT..OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURESYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHTTHROUGH WEDNESDAY.&&.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAYFOR MDZ001.WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM ESTSATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAYFOR OHZ040-041-050.PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAYFOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FORPAZ007>009.WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM ESTSATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAYFOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FORWVZ512>514.&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I lied I had to post this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Hope these squall lines can hold together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Hope these squall lines can hold together I think I read on the NWS page they expect them to weaken some by the time they reach us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 So far I would have to say this has been one of the more disappointing winters for snow in recent memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 So far I would have to say this has been one of the more disappointing winters for snow in recent memory. How many inches do we have so far ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 How many inches do we have so far ?? If I were to guess I'd say under 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 19.9" so far as of today, average by Feb 12 is 26.9", -7" for the season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Hope these squall lines can hold together I noticed some lightning on a map near Buffalo. Would be nice to get some down here but I am sure the line will weaken. Would be a fun night of storms if it were summer! I am going out tonight and will probably be heading home when the squalls move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 19.9" so far as of today, average by Feb 12 is 26.9", -7" for the season so far. Wow we r below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12z Para GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Totally different than operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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