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Pittsburgh, PA Thread: Winter 2015-2016


meatwad

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Euro tries to almost phase with the clipper trailing in behind it. This is where I wish we had some METs in our area to comment, but I wonder if that happens a bit sooner if it would allow the storm wrap in more cold air, or if it would just push the track further west. I don't like snow to rain storms, but I mean if we are talking 8-10 inches then rain that is something I could get on board for.

UKie has a very similar solution as EURO.  CMC is on crack.

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I don't see how that clipper helps us in any way.  Either it moves too fast and pushes the main southern low East and out to sea, or it moves too slow and the southern stream comes too far north and brings warm air with it, giving us driving rain.

 

Seeing as how I despise seeing rain during the winter, I honestly would prefer this to just move East and give us less precip overall.  I don't trust thread-the-needle events, especially in the valleys south of Allegheny where warm air floods very easily.

 

Confidence very low in this particular event.  I don't know how the Euro breaks down its precip forecasts, but I imagine a lot of the snow it shows wouldn't be around once the storm is over (either it falls as a mix or gets washed away in the rain).

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I don't see how that clipper helps us in any way.  Either it moves too fast and pushes the main southern low East and out to sea, or it moves too slow and the southern stream comes too far north and brings warm air with it, giving us driving rain.

 

Seeing as how I despise seeing rain during the winter, I honestly would prefer this to just move East and give us less precip overall.  I don't trust thread-the-needle events, especially in the valleys south of Allegheny where warm air floods very easily.

 

Confidence very low in this particular event.  I don't know how the Euro breaks down its precip forecasts, but I imagine a lot of the snow it shows wouldn't be around once the storm is over (either it falls as a mix or gets washed away in the rain).

 

I think the EURO is 2-5 snow, heavy rain, 3 -5 snow.  Here is map from what I can tell before rain

 

post-20483-1455301457_thumb.png

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DT'S thoughts.

UPDATE FEB 15-16 EAST COAST EVENT

With 2 short term events currently underway I do not have the time to go into a lot of detail about Monday Tuesday February 15 -16. I will however have the time later this afternoon and early evening.

I will briefly say however that all the model data at midday is warmer and most of them take main LOW up the Appalachians mountains or just to the east of the mountains across the coastal plain Monday night and Tuesday morning. As we get closer to the event .. the model seemed to be latching onto a track well inland. The Low track seems to be something like Raleigh Baltimore Binghamton NY....

This greatly reduces the threat of an ice storm for the Shenandoah Valley and for Western Maryland. We are not saying there will be no ice across the Shenandoah Valley and Western Maryland... But right now it does not look like a big deal In fact the most of the weather models -- not all but most- drive the rain snow line as far north as Albany NY ... nd out to towards Pittsburgh and out to the Virginia West Virginia State line by Tuesday morning. All of West Virginia should stay either frozen or snow and this could be a significant snowstorm for much of eastern KY ..the eastern half of Ohio and possibly far Western PA. There is some possibility that the precipitation may go back over all snow over the northern half of the Shenandoah Valley and the northern Piedmont -- possibly including DC BAL Hagerstown and Maryland on Tuesday afternoon.

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DT'S thoughts.

UPDATE FEB 15-16 EAST COAST EVENT

With 2 short term events currently underway I do not have the time to go into a lot of detail about Monday Tuesday February 15 -16. I will however have the time later this afternoon and early evening.

I will briefly say however that all the model data at midday is warmer and most of them take main LOW up the Appalachians mountains or just to the east of the mountains across the coastal plain Monday night and Tuesday morning. As we get closer to the event .. the model seemed to be latching onto a track well inland. The Low track seems to be something like Raleigh Baltimore Binghamton NY....

This greatly reduces the threat of an ice storm for the Shenandoah Valley and for Western Maryland. We are not saying there will be no ice across the Shenandoah Valley and Western Maryland... But right now it does not look like a big deal In fact the most of the weather models -- not all but most- drive the rain snow line as far north as Albany NY ... nd out to towards Pittsburgh and out to the Virginia West Virginia State line by Tuesday morning. All of West Virginia should stay either frozen or snow and this could be a significant snowstorm for much of eastern KY ..the eastern half of Ohio and possibly far Western PA. There is some possibility that the precipitation may go back over all snow over the northern half of the Shenandoah Valley and the northern Piedmont -- possibly including DC BAL Hagerstown and Maryland on Tuesday afternoon.

What model is he talking about? Does he still consider Pittsburgh, Westmoreland County?

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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 122123
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
423 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES IN THE RIDGES AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE PROGGED FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BOTH HI RES AND LONGER
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SUGGEST A PERIOD WHERE DEEP
MOISTURE...IN A LAYER FROM ABOUT 600MB TO 850MB...WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT EFFICIENT
SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED
WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN UPSLOPE SNOW UNTIL THE WHOLE BOUNDARY
LAYER FALLS WELL BELOW THE GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF PRESTON
TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SQUALLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PROGGED FOR PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO BE INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA BY 00Z AND PITTSBURGH BY 03Z. VARIOUS
RUNS OF THE HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OTHER SNOW SQUALLS PROGS SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKENING AS THE LINE COMES ACROSS.
GENERALLY ANTICIPATE A HALF TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND PROVIDE FOR A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPROACHING 25
TO 35KTS. THIS...ADDED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL VALUES WELL BELOW ZERO. THIS
SUPPORTS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED. 40MPH WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT IN THE RIDGES WILL ALLOW VALUES TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA BUT AT THIS POINT...THE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WITH SOME -25 VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN OF TUCKER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SEVERAL DUAL-LAKE SNOW BANDS. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF MODELS HAS THE MORE PROMINENT BAND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH FROM LAST NIGHT SO WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT
OF SNOW BANDS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR VENANGO COUNTY TO AN ADVISORY FOR MERCER...VENANGO...AND
FOREST COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL LAKE PLUMES MAY SUPPORT SNOW BEYOND
THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR PLACEMENT...NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WERE ADDED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BACK OFF...WITH WIND
CHILL CONCERNS DIMINISHING IN OHIO. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...SO ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCATTERING
OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
BOTH PERIODS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
MONDAY. BY LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL DIFFER
ON EXACT TRACK BUT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A MIX WITH
RAIN OR ALL RAIN WHERE BETTER QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALTHOUGH EVEN THE WARMER ECMWF
WRAPS COLD AIR BACK IN LATER TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY SNOW.

SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DELIVER ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. HEIGHTS ALOFT THEN
BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM
ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW HAS DROPPED VSBY TO MVFR OR BELOW FOR A TIME AT KMGW AND
KLBE AS A SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC. SNOW SHOWERS
ALSO WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WITH MVFR TO
IFR THIS EVENING WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OVER
25KTS AND TURNING NORTHWEST WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR MDZ001.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR OHZ039-048-049-057>059-068-069.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR OHZ040-041-050.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR WVZ003-004-012.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR WVZ001-002-021-509>514.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
WVZ512>514.


&&

$

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