Mailman Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Do you really want to be in the bullseye five days out, though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Do you really want to be in the bullseye five days out, though? It has never ever worked out for us as far as what I remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Hopefully it's just the Euro being too amped. Still 5 days out so this thing could change. But man would the Euro solution put me in depression for a day. I am glad it is showing such a solution. Keeps me from getting too confident. Sets my expectations lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I am glad it is showing such a solution. Keeps me from getting too confident. Sets my expectations lower. Not an easy setup for models to get right this far out, so things are going to keep changing. I do think we have seen the "goal posts" narrow so to speak but I wouldn't get excited over anything yet. I expected the Euro to go NW again, especially after its ensembles were NW last night, hopefully when the 12z Ens come out we see them SE of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Do you really want to be in the bullseye five days out, though? A snow weenie can never truly be at ease until he is shoveling the 12+ in his driveway, and even then he may be concerned about when the next chance for snow will come! lol We are always nervously hoping for something to stay the same, or shift in one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yep, Euro is classic WTOD, right now it is the furthest NW of all models, but this is certainly a possible outcome. No it's Not ! storms very Rarely ride up the spine of the Apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 JOE B ain't buying the EURO run....The model , IMO is having the same kind of run it did at 12z yesterday. The big problem is that between 06z Tuesday and 12z Tuesday, the entire area from NC to PA warms on average 15F while its precipping. State college for instance is 24 F at 06 z and with close to a half inch of liquid rises to 42. Roanake rises from 32 to 42. This air lifted, then downsloped into the Ohio valley would shift the prime area to move the low to west of the mountains. This looks wrong to me. I am still storm typing this primarily (3/4 weight) dec 26-27 2012, 1/4 March 2-4 1994. . Here is what I think happens, The low level cold air does not get eroded northwest of I-95 as heavy precip into cold air created a thermally reverse circulation just inland from the coast. The strong south wind over the ocean has a natural eddy that forms where its precipping lnland. As the Euro realizes ( or whatever runs it may see it, like last nights) that its not warming 16 degrees in 6 hours while heavy precip is in progress in the piedmont, it corrects. You see a parcel of air at 42 degrees saturated at 1200 feel in State college lifted a 3 F/1k will be 37.5 at the top of the Alleghanies but warm closer to 5.5/k as it downslopes further west. So we are dealing with the model trying to warm air for the low up west of the mountains so much it feeds back. Now the combination of a baroclinic zone in the piedmont, lower temps will mean a more substantial secondary low that comes up the coast. In addition the problem with the Euro runs that deepen the southern branch to much ( where there is blocking like the blizzard, the result is too far south, but without blocking it raises the heights to much in front) factors into it. Also the old medium range center idea taught to be by Paul Stokols for the east in Feb.. that if you start snowing at 558 or lower, and the heights fall from there, not rise, you stay frozen , will be tested. It is an empirical formula but what it says is the rate of cooling from precip and the height falls will force the storm to adjust. Possible yes, plausible no, IMO. Storm analogs are heavily weighted to the late December 20-12 case. As far as abandoning the idea this would be bigger than Peggy Lee in the big cities, I am not even close to doing that. I think the snow can come in and thump as the model adjusts east and even though it turns to rain in the big cities, it could snow quite a bit, with ice northwest. Unlike the blizzard I would rather be back here than in DC to NYC for heaviest snow, but dismissing this based on models is not the best way to go IMO Though using 12/26-27 for storm type and track, the details here with the immense cold 2 days before the storm have to be considered. Plus details tend to be devilish this far out In the end, Major winter storm in back of the monster high, which has been a mainstay here on this matter with a low to the Ohio valley then one running up the coast, but up, not out is the call. I like the center closer to ACY Tue night than CXY for instance, with whats left of the old low in the Ohio valley. Though I feel dirty saying this, I think the GFS has a good track and the temperatures and precip will adjust accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 EURO Ensemble Mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 12z Para GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 JOE B ain't buying the EURO run....The model , IMO is having the same kind of run it did at 12z yesterday. The big problem is that between 06z Tuesday and 12z Tuesday, the entire area from NC to PA warms on average 15F while its precipping. State college for instance is 24 F at 06 z and with close to a half inch of liquid rises to 42. Roanake rises from 32 to 42. This air lifted, then downsloped into the Ohio valley would shift the prime area to move the low to west of the mountains. This looks wrong to me. I am still storm typing this primarily (3/4 weight) dec 26-27 2012, 1/4 March 2-4 1994. . Here is what I think happens, The low level cold air does not get eroded northwest of I-95 as heavy precip into cold air created a thermally reverse circulation just inland from the coast. The strong south wind over the ocean has a natural eddy that forms where its precipping lnland. As the Euro realizes ( or whatever runs it may see it, like last nights) that its not warming 16 degrees in 6 hours while heavy precip is in progress in the piedmont, it corrects. You see a parcel of air at 42 degrees saturated at 1200 feel in State college lifted a 3 F/1k will be 37.5 at the top of the Alleghanies but warm closer to 5.5/k as it downslopes further west. So we are dealing with the model trying to warm air for the low up west of the mountains so much it feeds back. Now the combination of a baroclinic zone in the piedmont, lower temps will mean a more substantial secondary low that comes up the coast. In addition the problem with the Euro runs that deepen the southern branch to much ( where there is blocking like the blizzard, the result is too far south, but without blocking it raises the heights to much in front) factors into it. Also the old medium range center idea taught to be by Paul Stokols for the east in Feb.. that if you start snowing at 558 or lower, and the heights fall from there, not rise, you stay frozen , will be tested. It is an empirical formula but what it says is the rate of cooling from precip and the height falls will force the storm to adjust. Possible yes, plausible no, IMO. Storm analogs are heavily weighted to the late December 20-12 case. As far as abandoning the idea this would be bigger than Peggy Lee in the big cities, I am not even close to doing that. I think the snow can come in and thump as the model adjusts east and even though it turns to rain in the big cities, it could snow quite a bit, with ice northwest. Unlike the blizzard I would rather be back here than in DC to NYC for heaviest snow, but dismissing this based on models is not the best way to go IMO Though using 12/26-27 for storm type and track, the details here with the immense cold 2 days before the storm have to be considered. Plus details tend to be devilish this far out In the end, Major winter storm in back of the monster high, which has been a mainstay here on this matter with a low to the Ohio valley then one running up the coast, but up, not out is the call. I like the center closer to ACY Tue night than CXY for instance, with whats left of the old low in the Ohio valley. Though I feel dirty saying this, I think the GFS has a good track and the temperatures and precip will adjust accordingly. (3/4 weight) dec 26-27 2012, 1/4 March 2-4 1994. . I read this as well. I agree the euro is probably too far nw, but this analog makes no sense for that argument. I don't know what happened further east with the Dec 2012 storm, but back here well west of you, we had mixing issues with that storm and the snow jackpot was western OH and southern IN, (they actually had blizzard watches posted xmas day for that storm). So, how the heck can he use that as a heavily weighted analog and then argue that the euro is too far nw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 (3/4 weight) dec 26-27 2012, 1/4 March 2-4 1994. . I read this as well. I agree the euro is probably too far nw, but this analog makes no sense for that argument. I don't know what happened further east with the Dec 2012 storm, but back here well west of you, we had mixing issues with that storm and the snow jackpot was western OH and southern IN, (they actually had blizzard watches posted xmas day for that storm). So, how the heck can he use that as a heavily weighted analog and then argue that the euro is too far nw? Hey I always see u in accu in the forums when I read when storms come.Any way you are right I remember that storm,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 (3/4 weight) dec 26-27 2012, 1/4 March 2-4 1994. . I read this as well. I agree the euro is probably too far nw, but this analog makes no sense for that argument. I don't know what happened further east with the Dec 2012 storm, but back here well west of you, we had mixing issues with that storm and the snow jackpot was western OH and southern IN, (they actually had blizzard watches posted xmas day for that storm). So, how the heck can he use that as a heavily weighted analog and then argue that the euro is too far nw? Hey u and rob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 No it's Not ! storms very Rarely ride up the spine of the Apps Well the Euro has to lows, one west of the apps, then it looks like it tries to redevelop one that rides up the spine or just east of it. The one to the west gives us the warm tongue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Warm tongue on 18z. This one is over. Enjoy your slop everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ca9nys4VIAA9Q4M.jpg Joe Bastardi Experimental FIM which was the king of blizzard IMO in closest agreement with storm blend idea I use 4 next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 That yellow looks like a penis that is aimed at screwing us. It's the 18z GFS so it could change way east next run. But once that warm tongue shows up it seems to never disappear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Had a feeling this could happen if the storm got too amped up. Now you have the GFS looking more like the Euro. Not a good sign. Usually, when they start going west, there's no stopping them. We've experienced this plenty of times. Like I said earlier, this one has almost no room for error. With limited cold air feeding into the storm, looks like the storm has nothing to keep it from trending west if it ends up being this strong. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 EPS is walking a very fine line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Had a feeling this could happen if the storm got too amped up. Now you have the GFS looking more like the Euro. Not a good sign. Usually, when they start going west, there's no stopping them. We've experienced this plenty of times. Like I said earlier, this one has almost no room for error. With limited cold air feeding into the storm, looks like the storm has nothing to keep it from trending west if it ends up being this strong. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk The track isn't that bad... We are on the NW side of the low the whole time, this is why you need a nice high to the north, not a low pressure. If there was a high pressure we would get a good front thump then maybe mix but go back to snow. Still time to see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 EPS is walking a very fine line. Thats the Para OP Euro not the EPS, or am I mistaken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Thats the Para OP Euro not the EPS, or am I mistaken? Wrong acronym. That is the parallel Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The track isn't that bad... We are on the NW side of the low the whole time, this is why you need a nice high to the north, not a low pressure. If there was a high pressure we would get a good front thump then maybe mix but go back to snow. Still time to see how it plays out.Yeah, if we had that high above us it would be a nice track. Since we don't, we can be on the northwest of this thing and still have issues if it gets too close to us. Still plenty of time for things to change, but I don't like it when they start going west. Seems like once they do, they rarely go back. We'll see.Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I'm not overly concerned yet with the western trend. We needed it at the beginning of the day anyway. At this point it's not far enough away that it can't come back in one set of model ones. Even the furthest west solutions still give us 3-4 inches, albeit a slop fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I'm not overly concerned yet with the western trend. We needed it at the beginning of the day anyway. At this point it's not far enough away that it can't come back in one set of model ones. Even the furthest west solutions still give us 3-4 inches, albeit a slop fest. Oh I completely agree. Any OP model run should be looked at for caution but we are getting to the point where they are usefull for trends. I think it's safe to say we will see snow. Now whether it's slop or a significant storm is yet to be determined.Time to hit the gym and forget about the weather. Man why did I ever become interested in the weather. It's stressful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Hey I always see u in accu in the forums when I read when storms come.Any way you are right I remember that storm,, that must be a different buckeye lol. I haven't been to an accuwx forum in 10 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yep, Euro is classic WTOD, right now it is the furthest NW of all models, but this is certainly a possible outcome. Hahah if this verifies-you guys get more than the laurels and that would be a nice change for once!!...just need a slight bump east to get you all into the 10"+!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Oh I completely agree. Any OP model run should be looked at for caution but we are getting to the point where they are usefull for trends. I think it's safe to say we will see snow. Now whether it's slop or a significant storm is yet to be determined. Time to hit the gym and forget about the weather. Man why did I ever become interested in the weather. It's stressful. I'm about to do the same but the basketball court instead. Hoping to come back to some nice runs. Wouldn't surprise me if it continued trending west a little more tonight. Then we can patch things up in the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 000FXUS61 KPBZ 120225AFDPBZAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA925 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...BUT A COLD FRONT WILLBRING MORE SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COLDERTEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...WITH 930PM UPDATE...APPEARS THAT NEARLY ALL SNOW HAS COME TO ANEND FOR THE EVENING...BUT HAVE STILL KEEP SOME FLURRIES IN THEFORECAST IN CASE THE RADAR IS OVERSHOOTING ANY REMAINING SNOW.STILL NOT SURE JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES MIGHT DROP TONIGHT.DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM NEAR 0 TO AS HIGH AS 10 ABOVE...WHICH SHOULDBE THE LOWER BOUND FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEARINGOUT AND WINDS REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT...THOUGHT THATTEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE BEEN DROPPING MORE THAN THEY HAVE SO FAR.DESPITE THIS...STILL DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS ANOTHER DEGREE ORTWO...ANTICIPATING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FOR A TIME BEFOREHIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.&&.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LWR OH VLY/MID ATLANTICRGN FRI BRINGING INCRG LGT SNOW CHCS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...ANDASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN FRI EVE WITHBETTER CHCS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUEUNDER UPR TROFG AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT LATER FRI NGT ANDSAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORYCRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENTIN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH PRESSURE SAT NGT/SUN SHOULDBRING DRY WEATHER.WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHTTHRU SOMETIME SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLSACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIMINISHING WINDS MAY PROVIDE FOR LESSERCHCS OF WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...THOUGH TEMPS NROR BELOW ZERO ARE EXPD. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROMSUPERBLENDED GUIDANCE.&&.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER SUNDAYNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES MOVE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGESTO START THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR SOUTHERNSTREAM STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND MOVING NORTHEAST LATERMONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WPC PROGS ANDTHE SUPERBLEND...WITH HIGHEST POPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES.THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY WITHCHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL NORM. HIGHPRESSURE LOOKS TO GIVE A DRY DAY THURSDAY.&&.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORETHE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND FLIGHTRESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONGER WESTERLY WINDSWILL SUBSIDE BY MID EVENING..OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTOSATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR WILL BE WITH LOWPRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.&&.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...MD...NONE.OH...NONE.PA...NONE.WV...NONE.&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.