colonel717 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 the EPS control is way east, the mean isnt too bad, clusters the low in NW SC and up the coast, favors a more west track than the OP and control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 UKie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 EAST: MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THESOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST BEFORE TURNING UP THE COAST NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. GFS HAS MOSTLY BEEN FARTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF WHILE THE CMC AND RECENT UKMET RUNS HAVE WAVERED E-W. TREND IN RECENT WINTER STORMS HAS BEEN FARTHER NORTHWEST RATHER THAN SOUTHEAST BUT ANTECEDENT COLD AIR -- RECORD COLD -- SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME AFFECT IN LIMITING A FAR WESTERN TRACK WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS COLD AIR IS USUALLY SLOW TO EXIT -- SLOWER THAN WHAT THE MODELS PREDICT. IN ADDITION, EVOLUTION OF NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER LOW IN CANADA ALL PLAY A PART IN HOW MUCH TO DIG THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WHERE IT MAY CLOSE OFF. ENSEMBLES HAVE GONE FROM NEARLY UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT ON A CLOSE-IN COASTAL TRACK TO A SPLIT -- THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES MOSTLY INLAND AND THE GEFS/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES MOSTLY OFFSHORE. OPTED TO TAKE THE LOW BASICALLY ALONG I-95 FROM SC TO RICHMOND THEN PHILLY AND INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Well, woke up and was under another heavy band around quarter to six this morning. Might be the heaviest snow I have witnessed in my back yard this winter, it only lasted at that intensity 3-4 minutes before lightening back up though. I've got more snow on the ground now than at any other time this winter, which isn't saying much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Looks like the overnight models runs are starting to come to some sort of compromise, west models went east, and east models came west. One thing I don't like is how compact the precip shield looks on the NW side of the storm, very little precip in the cold sector until it really gets going north of us, screams of another tight gradient. Here is the surface map from 00z Para: Looking at 500mb, you can see the trough is still neutral to slightly negative tilted pretty far east, so this would limit the western track possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 NWS thnking another shot at some squalls Friday, also looks like they are currently leaning towards a more eastern track of the storm next week for now:.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...FRIDAY BEGINS DRY AND COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY CUTS OFFTHE SNOW PRODUCTION. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS THE DOOR TOCOLDER AIR WIDE OPEN...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOWAVERAGE.MULTIPLE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE NORTHERNPLAINS...PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE PINWHEELING VORTEX INCANADA. THE FIRST WEAKER WAVE WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH ON THE FRONTOF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS WILL BRING LITTLE MORE THANINCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHMIDDAY FRIDAY. A MORE POTENT WAVE WILL THEN DROP SOUTH THROUGH THEWESTERN GREAT LAKES...RE-INVIGORATING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEADOF THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS AGAIN LOOKPOSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGELY LEFT SNOWTOTALS INTACT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH LOOKS TO BE BELOWADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA..LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN MAKE ATEMPORARY VISIT TO THE REGION. MODELS STILL HAVING SOMEDIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT.TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE GUIDANCE...BUT THEECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL. STILL...EXPECTINGAT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAYSYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTOTHE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILLNEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.TAX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Still a lot of good hits, would think the mean is west of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Still a lot of good hits, would think the mean is west of the OP. 23 of the 52 6+ pretty good odds at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I think it's time we cash in. We've been paying our dues for too long. 6+ really isn't that much to ask. Per Climo we avg two of those per year I believe. On another note, nws is trying to redeem itself. Calling for 1-3 overnight now. Looks like Butler & Armstrong are getting some bands right now per radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GFS .... Come west young man!! And it did. Now we need it to stop right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GFS .... Come west young man!! And it did. Now we need it to stop right there. Yep, F you warm tongue.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GFS .... Come west young man!! And it did. Now we need it to stop right there. GFS also now has a little clipper type system sliding down right behind the main storm. I'm not sure if that is a good or bad thing, but would lean towards it kicking the storm further east if it were to trend faster \ stronger. Just something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 CMC track in green Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 UKie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Hard not to get excited at this point. Just too bad 5 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Hard not to get excited at this point. Just too bad 5 days away. Yeah I feel the same but I'm being extremely pessimistic. We have just been screwed too many times after being jackpotted even 2 days out to get excited. We are due but at the same time there is a detour sign. All 12z guidance looks really good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1147 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016 VALID FEB 11/1200 UTC THRU FEB 15/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... ...AN EVALUATION OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS ALONG WITH PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES/FORECAST CONFIDENCE... THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 12Z NAM/GFS DEEMED SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT THEIR FORECASTS. ...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PUSHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES... PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A PACIFIC SYSTEM WHICH WILL REACH THE WA BORDER BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE 12Z NAM/00Z UKMET ARE QUICKER TO ADVANCE THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. TRAILING ENERGY SPILLS IN ITS WAKE LEADING TO A MORE ELONGATED SYSTEM STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TIER. WHILE SLOWER WITH THE INITIAL IMPULSE...THE OVERALL ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH ITSELF IS SLOWER IN THE 12Z NAM. ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTIS SHOW SOME AMPLITUDE SPREAD WITH MANY OF THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS FAVORING MORE AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN ITSELF STAYS TO THE NORTH WHERE THE BETTER CLUSTERING IS. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS COMPLICATED GIVEN THE NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES INVOLVED. THE BEST ENSEMBLE SUPPORT NOTED IN RECENT SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS IS FROM THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. WPC FAVORS A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF WITH INCLUSION OF THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TO ACCOUNT FOR GROWING UNCERTAINTIES. ...ADDITIONAL PACIFIC ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY 15/0000Z... PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 06Z GEFS/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE TRAILING IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SYSTEM WILL BE AN ELONGATED IMPULSE WHICH TRACKS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A RENEWED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST. THERE ARE A SLEW OF SCENARIOS HERE BASED ON RECENT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. THE 12Z GFS TRACKS THE FEATURE THROUGH WESTERN WY WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF FAVORS SOMETHING EASTWARD CLOSER TO THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS POINT THE BEST PATH TO TAKE IS THE ENSEMBLE ROUTE FAVORING A BLEND OF THE 06Z GEFS/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 CMC track in green CMC is near perfect track, although it looks a bit unusual it pops a secondary way offshore, although I don't think by that time it has much effect on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yeah.. the Canadian is a smoker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 CMC is near perfect track, although it looks a bit unusual it pops a secondary way offshore, although I don't think by that time it has much effect on us. Yea, the only way it would affect us is I think positively if it heads north west from there like the UKie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The one thing that worries you about this one is, with the lack of cold air feeding in, there is very little margin for error. It'll have to track perfect for us to get something significant. If it ticks to the west, we get slop. To the east, we get fringed. It would be nice to get lucky for a change. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The one thing that worries you about this one is, with the lack of cold air feeding in, there is very little margin for error. It'll have to track perfect for us to get something significant. If it ticks to the west, we get slop. To the east, we get fringed. It would be nice to get lucky for a change. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Yep. Its been 22 years since the perfect track. We are either due or its so rare it wont happen at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 EURO tracks north west with warm tongue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 EURO is back way NW. The run to run swings with the Euro are insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yep, Euro is classic WTOD, right now it is the furthest NW of all models, but this is certainly a possible outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yep, Euro is classic WTOD, right now it is the furthest NW of all models, but this is certainly a possible outcome. Hopefully it's just the Euro being too amped. Still 5 days out so this thing could change. But man would the Euro solution put me in depression for a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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