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Pittsburgh, PA Thread: Winter 2015-2016


meatwad

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Did you see the track of that monster storm. Straight up the mountains to our East. Has probably never happened and never will happen. 

Didn't the Jan. 3, 1994 storm track up the Apps like that? Maybe just to the east of the Apps, I can't really remember. We were in the perfect spot for that storm. Haven't seen one like that since. Very rare track for this area. They never track that perfectly for us.

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These sharp cutoffs are starting to get irritating! I'm thinking this may be another case where I see light snow out my window but see heavier rates to the South.

 

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO CHURN TO OUR NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON PLACEMENT OF HIGHER SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. A WEAK TROWAL
SETUP/FRONTOGENTIC FORCING ARE PRESENT WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
SNOW TOTALS AS COMPARED TO AREAS TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME VERY
MINOR DISAGREEMENT ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MORE FAVORABLE
FORCING...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS RELATIVELY GOOD. CONTINUED SLOW
COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE WITH TIME...ALONG WITH SNOW RATIOS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALLY HIGHER TUESDAY SNOW TOTALS THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED
DEPENDING ON WHERE BEST DYNAMICS ULTIMATELY SET UP. BEST FORCING
BEGINS TO WANE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS STARTS TO
SETTLE IN. CATEGORICAL POPS WERE PLACED FROM PIT ON SOUTH. TO THE
NORTH...LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED...BUT THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING...ESPECIALLY AS COMPARED TO THE SOUTH...COULD LEAD TO A
SHARPER CUTOFF IN SNOW COVERAGE
THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED.

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LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED BEGINS WITH DEEP TROF ACROSS THE ERN CONUS...SLOWLY
LIFTING NEWD THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROF WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO WED.
SMALLER S/WV TROFS WITHIN THE FLOW MAY ENHANCE OR FOCUS SN SHOWERS
INTO A SMALLER AREA...BUT DETAILS ON WHEN AND WHERE WILL BE
WORKED OUT ONCE TODAY/S POWERFUL OCEAN STORM CLEARS THE STAGE.

GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ARE IN AGREEMENT THRU THE REST OF THE
FORECAST...THAT RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...AND THIS
HELPS TO CARVE THE TROF OVER THE E AGAIN. THIS PATTERN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TEMPS AVERAGING OUT BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT THERE IS A
FAIRLY STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF THE POLAR
CIRCULATION TO ROTATE DOWN ACROSS SRN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. AS
CURRENTLY MODELED THIS WOULD LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR. THAT TIME PERIOD WILL ALSO BEAR WATCHING FOR A S/WV
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND UNDER THE POLAR LOW. THE 08.00Z ECMWF
EPS HAS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR LATE BLOOMING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN
THE GULF OF ME EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE GEFS AND GFS ALSO
DEVELOP THIS SAME WAVE...HOWEVER IT IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER SE. GIVEN THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE SOMETHING THERE...IT IS
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

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NAM pretty much led the way on the last storm at this range. No reason to say the GFS is right, I think it is an outlier at this point. Also no idea where that map came from; map on the NWS twitter page is the lower totals. 2-5" region wide is probably safe.

Saw it on their Facebook. No idea how they came up with that but I would guess the GFS.

jXe26PY.jpg

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Saw it on their Facebook. No idea how they came up with that but I would guess the GFS.

 

That's odd they would publish two different maps (or at least not update the other map).  It also seems strange to have that map yet not mention those sorts of numbers in the forecast.  It would make more sense to me if the GFS had support.

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