north pgh Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Last post of the night. Oh Canada........................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Last post of the night. Oh Canada........................ Only 20 more model runs to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Only 20 more model runs to go! Did you see the track of that monster storm. Straight up the mountains to our East. Has probably never happened and never will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Did you see the track of that monster storm. Straight up the mountains to our East. Has probably never happened and never will happen. That track was something special. I doubt that would verify but wow wouldn't that be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Did you see the track of that monster storm. Straight up the mountains to our East. Has probably never happened and never will happen. Didn't the Jan. 3, 1994 storm track up the Apps like that? Maybe just to the east of the Apps, I can't really remember. We were in the perfect spot for that storm. Haven't seen one like that since. Very rare track for this area. They never track that perfectly for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 These sharp cutoffs are starting to get irritating! I'm thinking this may be another case where I see light snow out my window but see heavier rates to the South. .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SURFACE LOWCONTINUES TO CHURN TO OUR NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKESTUESDAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON PLACEMENT OF HIGHER SNOWTOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. A WEAK TROWALSETUP/FRONTOGENTIC FORCING ARE PRESENT WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCESNOW TOTALS AS COMPARED TO AREAS TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME VERYMINOR DISAGREEMENT ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MORE FAVORABLEFORCING...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS RELATIVELY GOOD. CONTINUED SLOWCOLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL CONDITIONS TOIMPROVE WITH TIME...ALONG WITH SNOW RATIOS. THIS COULD LEAD TOLOCALLY HIGHER TUESDAY SNOW TOTALS THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTEDDEPENDING ON WHERE BEST DYNAMICS ULTIMATELY SET UP. BEST FORCINGBEGINS TO WANE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE COLDER AIRMASS STARTS TOSETTLE IN. CATEGORICAL POPS WERE PLACED FROM PIT ON SOUTH. TO THENORTH...LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED...BUT THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANTFORCING...ESPECIALLY AS COMPARED TO THE SOUTH...COULD LEAD TO ASHARPER CUTOFF IN SNOW COVERAGE THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH DEEP TROF ACROSS THE ERN CONUS...SLOWLYLIFTING NEWD THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PASSAGE OF THE UPPERTROF WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO WED.SMALLER S/WV TROFS WITHIN THE FLOW MAY ENHANCE OR FOCUS SN SHOWERSINTO A SMALLER AREA...BUT DETAILS ON WHEN AND WHERE WILL BEWORKED OUT ONCE TODAY/S POWERFUL OCEAN STORM CLEARS THE STAGE.GEFS AND ECMWF EPS ARE IN AGREEMENT THRU THE REST OF THEFORECAST...THAT RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...AND THISHELPS TO CARVE THE TROF OVER THE E AGAIN. THIS PATTERN WILL BEFAVORABLE FOR TEMPS AVERAGING OUT BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT THERE IS AFAIRLY STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF THE POLARCIRCULATION TO ROTATE DOWN ACROSS SRN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. ASCURRENTLY MODELED THIS WOULD LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THESEASON SO FAR. THAT TIME PERIOD WILL ALSO BEAR WATCHING FOR A S/WVSPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND UNDER THE POLAR LOW. THE 08.00Z ECMWFEPS HAS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR LATE BLOOMING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT INTHE GULF OF ME EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE GEFS AND GFS ALSODEVELOP THIS SAME WAVE...HOWEVER IT IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE ANDFARTHER SE. GIVEN THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE SOMETHING THERE...IT ISSOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 12Z EPS Ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 EURO Control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 For the weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The later storm next week, the EURO lost it for our area on the overnight run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 6Z GFS has 2 clippers 15 & 17th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Quite bullish, but what do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Quite bullish, but what do I know. Yeah, I hope there right, but seems very high. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 There is no way that 6-8 is happening... I am going with the NAM's inch or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 There is no way that 6-8 is happening... I am going with the NAM's inch or so... I'm with you. I don't know what they are seeing but if those totals have any chance to verify it's further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 NAM pretty much led the way on the last storm at this range. No reason to say the GFS is right, I think it is an outlier at this point. Also no idea where that map came from; map on the NWS twitter page is the lower totals. 2-5" region wide is probably safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 NAM pretty much led the way on the last storm at this range. No reason to say the GFS is right, I think it is an outlier at this point. Also no idea where that map came from; map on the NWS twitter page is the lower totals. 2-5" region wide is probably safe. Saw it on their Facebook. No idea how they came up with that but I would guess the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Bernie Rayno in his video put mentioned Pgh as 3-6 inches area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Saw it on their Facebook. No idea how they came up with that but I would guess the GFS. That's odd they would publish two different maps (or at least not update the other map). It also seems strange to have that map yet not mention those sorts of numbers in the forecast. It would make more sense to me if the GFS had support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Looking more like 1-2 for most of our area with much of it coming on the back end of lake effect snow showers later Tuesday. Could still change. Time to look out the window and nowcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 RAP is bad but hey wasn't expecting us to luck out. Hopefully we don't waste our arctic cold coming on just dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 GGEM takes next weeks south then up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Weekend Temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Cancel winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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